Okay gentlemen, REAL talk...

[SmokinwithWilly]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Said Bryce is part of the wins and plays a key position. Not the same as saying he's the key to the wins.

But also not denying he plays a role in them because...well, he did. Even if you limit his contributions to the  game winning drives in the 4th quarter, those still count.

And yes, he's improved. but saying that doesn't equate to saying he's good enough to put the franchise label on him. It's just a simple acknowledgement that he's better than he used to be (to what degree is debatable).

As to his initial expectations, I'll just say stats aren't the only thing I don't care about. What he is matters way more than what he was expected to be.

And what is he? He's what you referenced, a mid-tier quarterback. Not the "worst in the league" or "worst ever" as some claim. That's just hyperbole. 

Lots of teams have those. Very few teams have elite ones. And I wouldn't bet on next year's draft having a supply of those either.

And again, stats. We used to have a number of folks who bandied about some of Delhomme's stats, Newton's stats, etc. But lets look at a few of those...

What metric do you prefer? Yards, perhaps? Well, if those are key then Jared Goff, Sam Darnold and Bo Nix are all doing better than Baker Mayfield right now.  The second best quarterback in the league? Dak Prescott. And Young? Well, he's outpacing CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagavailoa and even Aaron Rodgers.

Prefer touchdowns? Cool. On that front, Jared Goff is tied for third in the league with Drake Maye, leading Rodgers, Mayfield. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen among others. Bryce is 15th in the league here, just a single score shy of Rodgers, Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Josh Allen.  Ahead of Tagavailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, and Jackson.

Interceptions? Holy hell, Bryce has fewer interceptions than Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence and, again... Josh Allen. Does that mean I can go out and post on X that Bryce has better ball security than Allen?

But wait, are some of these stats...misleading?

Seems like they are.

Weird  

 

Here's the thing. You compared him to Jake. Jake was signed to the practice squad out of college. Bryce was the number 1 overall. Their expectations are wildly different and so are their contracts. You can talk all you want about what a player is and where they are now and all this other mumbo jumbo, but Jake never had a 5th year option and we weren't talking about the possibility of a top 5 QB contract extension at the end of his 3rd year. What he was expected to be matters because we invested heavily at a cost of future capital, including a 2nd round pick this year, for him to be that guy. The cost to add Bryce took value from the team. To be worth it, he has to add that value back. 

Actually, I don't prefer yards, TDs, or only INTs. All those stats by themselves are misleading which is why I said you have to use a lot of different stats.

ADOT - Average depth of target. 

Completion %. Pretty obvious until you factor in ADOT. 0-5 has a lot higher C% than 10-15%.

Hang time. If a pass is in the air for 4.6 seconds vs 3.1 on a 40 yards throw, that gives a DB a lot of time to correct. Is it a loft or is it a laser. 

EPA - Expected points added. A way of measuring QB efficiency on every play. 

CPOE - ranking pass completions based on several factors, not just the throw. 

There's obviously more, but those are the more common. 

Typical stats don't show everything. You need to look all over. Looking at a stat line is lazy. That's why I said, you need to analyze everything. Once you start looking at the numbers you start looking at the player. That's why you follow numbers. They lead you places. You look at what happening when the numbers show you patterns. That's where you start finding the problems that yards, TDs and Ints won't show you. 

 

 

[Mr. Scot]

23 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Here's the thing. You compared him to Jake. Jake was signed to the practice squad out of college. Bryce was the number 1 overall. Their expectations are wildly different and so are their contracts. You can talk all you want about what a player is and where they are now and all this other mumbo jumbo, but Jake never had a 5th year option and we weren't talking about the possibility of a top 5 QB contract extension at the end of his 3rd year. What he was expected to be matters because we invested heavily at a cost of future capital, including a 2nd round pick this year, for him to be that guy. The cost to add Bryce took value from the team. To be worth it, he has to add that value back. 

Actually, I don't prefer yards, TDs, or only INTs. All those stats by themselves are misleading which is why I said you have to use a lot of different stats.

ADOT - Average depth of target. 

Completion %. Pretty obvious until you factor in ADOT. 0-5 has a lot higher C% than 10-15%.

Hang time. If a pass is in the air for 4.6 seconds vs 3.1 on a 40 yards throw, that gives a DB a lot of time to correct. Is it a loft or is it a laser. 

EPA - Expected points added. A way of measuring QB efficiency on every play. 

CPOE - ranking pass completions based on several factors, not just the throw. 

There's obviously more, but those are the more common. 

Typical stats don't show everything. You need to look all over. Looking at a stat line is lazy. That's why I said, you need to analyze everything. Once you start looking at the numbers you start looking at the player. That's why you follow numbers. They lead you places. You look at what happening when the numbers show you patterns. That's where you start finding the problems that yards, TDs and Ints won't show you. 

Know who had phenomenal, "best in the league" completion percentage some years back?

David Carr

The problem with the vast majority of football stats (even "Next Gen" stats) is that they tend to be inextricably entwined with someone else's performance. Completion percentage is affected by drops, bad routes, etc. Interceptions aren't always a quarterback's fault, but nobody else gets blamed for them. If a tackle gives up a sack, it might be because someone else missed their assignment on a given play.

There's too many different possibilities, and unless you're willing to go back and watch a sh-tload of film, you're not going to understand everything that happened.

That's why I just trust my eyes.

Edited 2 hours ago by Mr. Scot

[SmokinwithWilly]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Know who had phenomenal, "best in the league" completion percentage some years back?

David Carr

The problem with the vast majority of football stats (even "Next Gen" stats) is that they tend to be inextricably entwined with someone else's performance. Completion percentage is affected by drops, bad routes, etc. Interceptions aren't always a quarterback's fault, but nobody else gets blamed for them. If a tackle gives up a sack, it might be because someone else missed their assignment on a given play.

There's too many different possibilities, and unless you're willing to go back and watch a sh-tload of film, you're not going to understand everything that happened.

That's why I just trust my eyes.

You know who else had a high completion %? Teddy 2 Gloves. He could check down with the best of them. 

I'm one of those people that watches and analyzes a lot, my brain does it by default, and it's something that I fully expect our scouts and FO to do religiously. Football is a sport I enjoy, and I actually watch footwork more than most. It drives my wife nuts, especially with our local hockey team. I can tell within a few games usually if a goalie is going to make it or not just by watching their feet. That's why I said stats give you a direction. They help show you where to look. They're a tool. As long as you realize that they're a tool to be used, not relied upon for absolute certainty.

I trust my eyes too. And I trust what I'm seeing. 3 years in, and Bryce's footwork and mechanics look almost identical to his rookie season and Alabama. Every time I see that jump pass I want to scream. Or when he squares up to the line of scrimmage to throw a pass instead of stepping into it to drive a throw. He does seem to have some sort of clutch gene, but he also has a WTF gene that rears its ugly head too. 

[TLGPanthersFan]

3 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

No, but winning blunts and decreases any motivation the team might have to replace him.

Which it shouldn’t. 

[Mr. Scot]

15 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

You know who else had a high completion %? Teddy 2 Gloves. He could check down with the best of them. 

I'm one of those people that watches and analyzes a lot, my brain does it by default, and it's something that I fully expect our scouts and FO to do religiously. Football is a sport I enjoy, and I actually watch footwork more than most. It drives my wife nuts, especially with our local hockey team. I can tell within a few games usually if a goalie is going to make it or not just by watching their feet. That's why I said stats give you a direction. They help show you where to look. They're a tool. As long as you realize that they're a tool to be used, not relied upon for absolute certainty.

I trust my eyes too. And I trust what I'm seeing. 3 years in, and Bryce's footwork and mechanics look almost identical to his rookie season and Alabama. Every time I see that jump pass I want to scream. Or when he squares up to the line of scrimmage to throw a pass instead of stepping into it to drive a throw. He does seem to have some sort of clutch gene, but he also has a WTF gene that rears its ugly head too. 

That's partially why our front office ended up the way it did. Fitterer signed on to Tepper's heavily analytics based approach. Morgan prefers old school eyeball scouting.

As far as "genes" our last few quarterbacks have had both the OMG and WTF genes. That's nothing new in Pantherland.bThe only difference was how far and how fast those throws went. 

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, TLGPanthersFan said:

Which it shouldn’t. 

Should and shouldn't are hypothetical.

[SmokinwithWilly]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

That's partially why our front office ended up the way it did. Fitterer signed on to Tepper's heavily analytics based approach. Morgan prefers old school eyeball scouting.

As far as "genes" our last few quarterbacks have had both the OMG and WTF genes. That's nothing new in Pantherland.bThe only difference was how far and how fast those throws went. 

I don't know where Morgan's approach lies. Last draft looked like a lot of analytics. XL was definitely not the choice for someone who eyeball watched a lot of tape. One season of production does not a 1st round pick make. He was also involved in the Shitterer regime so there's that to consider as well. This draft looks very promising, but we also have to consider how many god awful players we had so we may have gotten more return than normal because our cupboards were already so bare. 

I think we cut bait with Sam and Baker way too early. The "competition" between them was a joke. Of course we also had General OOU so there was that too. It's like the FO has been drunk the entire time Tepper has owned the team just to tolerate him. I can't make heads or tails of 90% of what's been done other than someone has a bottle or 12 in their desk drawer and keeps turning it up every time he walks through the door. 

[Mr. Scot]

13 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I don't know where Morgan's approach lies. Last draft looked like a lot of analytics. XL was definitely not the choice for someone who eyeball watched a lot of tape. One season of production does not a 1st round pick make. He was also involved in the Shitterer regime so there's that to consider as well. This draft looks very promising, but we also have to consider how many god awful players we had so we may have gotten more return than normal because our cupboards were already so bare. 

I think we cut bait with Sam and Baker way too early. The "competition" between them was a joke. Of course we also had General OOU so there was that too. It's like the FO has been drunk the entire time Tepper has owned the team just to tolerate him. I can't make heads or tails of 90% of what's been done other than someone has a bottle or 12 in their desk drawer and keeps turning it up every time he walks through the door. 

Sam and Baker were back when Rhule had final say.

I'm going off one of Gantt or Person's articles on their differences (I forget which).

Don't forget Tilis.

[DaveThePanther2008]

1 hour ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Here's the thing. You compared him to Jake. Jake was signed to the practice squad out of college. Bryce was the number 1 overall. Their expectations are wildly different and so are their contracts. You can talk all you want about what a player is and where they are now and all this other mumbo jumbo, but Jake never had a 5th year option and we weren't talking about the possibility of a top 5 QB contract extension at the end of his 3rd year. What he was expected to be matters because we invested heavily at a cost of future capital, including a 2nd round pick this year, for him to be that guy. The cost to add Bryce took value from the team. To be worth it, he has to add that value back. 

Actually, I don't prefer yards, TDs, or only INTs. All those stats by themselves are misleading which is why I said you have to use a lot of different stats.

ADOT - Average depth of target. 

Completion %. Pretty obvious until you factor in ADOT. 0-5 has a lot higher C% than 10-15%.

Hang time. If a pass is in the air for 4.6 seconds vs 3.1 on a 40 yards throw, that gives a DB a lot of time to correct. Is it a loft or is it a laser. 

EPA - Expected points added. A way of measuring QB efficiency on every play. 

CPOE - ranking pass completions based on several factors, not just the throw. 

There's obviously more, but those are the more common. 

Typical stats don't show everything. You need to look all over. Looking at a stat line is lazy. That's why I said, you need to analyze everything. Once you start looking at the numbers you start looking at the player. That's why you follow numbers. They lead you places. You look at what happening when the numbers show you patterns. That's where you start finding the problems that yards, TDs and Ints won't show you. 

 

 

I want to ask you.  Did each of those TD passes Young threw Sunday meet this criteria?  Young's swing pass to Chubba was perfectly placed and quick.  Both Coker and T-Mac's TDs were well placed touch passes.    Bryce has had many small window completions.  

Analytics are a great source of knowledge but in the end game time situations call for quick deceive decisions and analytics go out the door.  

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

I want to ask you.  Did each of those TD passes Young threw Sunday meet this criteria?  Young's swing pass to Chubba was perfectly placed and quick.  Both Coker and T-Mac's TDs were well placed touch passes.    Bryce has had many small window completions.  

Analytics are a great source of knowledge but in the end game time situations call for quick deceive decisions and analytics go out the door.  

I'd add you can't take YAC out of the equation. It's one of the core principles the WCO was built on. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

6 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Sam and Baker were back when Rhule had final say.

I'm going off one of Gantt or Person's articles on their differences (I forget which).

Don't forget Tilis.

I'm not. It's one reason I hate carry over from previous regimes. You can't really tell who was responsible for what. The best you can do is guess. Even Tepper would have no idea how much say any particular person had in a decision. 

[Sup]

41 minutes ago, TLGPanthersFan said:

Which it shouldn’t. 

Yes because most of the wins have been in spite of him. I will acknowledge he has had some very good games but you can't succeed with a guy that inconsistent.

And the idea of regretting letting him go because he turns into Mayfield or Darnold is ridiculous. Bryce has had like five good games here. Who gaf if he has five good games over the next three years?

[DaveThePanther2008]

Just now, Sup said:

Yes because most of the wins have been in spite of him. I will acknowledge he has had some very good games but you can't succeed with a guy that inconsistent.

And the idea of regretting letting him go because he turns into Mayfield or Darnold is ridiculous. Bryce has had like five good games here. Who gaf if he has five good games over the next three years?

Take away year one and he has progress significantly.  Darnold took several years to get it, as did Mayfield.  While I am not implying that BY will turn into either one of these players, I still believe there is some hope.  

These last 4 games will really make a difference.  

Were in playoff contention and lets just see if he craps the bed or really shows he's dialed in.  

[Mr. Scot]

26 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I'm not. It's one reason I hate carry over from previous regimes. You can't really tell who was responsible for what. The best you can do is guess. Even Tepper would have no idea how much say any particular person had in a decision. 

You can to some degree by looking at titles and job descriptions.

Morgan dumped Cole Spencer. He was Firterer's head of college scouting when he was first hired but had been promoted to a larger personnel role (I wasn't a fan).

Tilis has Samir Suleiman's old role plus some other duties. I don't know that he has any personnel input but he might be helpful in picking the people we bring aboard who do. 

But even if he doesn't, Morgan has a lot of prior connections with solid reputations that may be available this coming offseason.

That includes Lake Dawson, the guy who interviewed for our GM job before Richardson handed it back to Marty Hurney. Might even include Joe Schoen depending on what happens in New York.

We've also still got Scot McCloughan's son Cade as an area scout. McCloughan had a damn near unmatched eye for talent years back, but he basically drank himself out of the league. If he could come aboard in some capacity (and stay sober) I'd love it.

And there's others like OC Brad Idzik's brother who's a former GM, Trent Kirchner from Seattle who got his start with the Panthers, and many more. 

I'm hoping to see us bring some people aboard this offseason. As front offices go, we're relatively small so there's room to grow. 

Edited 24 minutes ago by Mr. Scot