FO Almanac's Panthers write-up

[Fiz]

Every year, there’s a surprise team in our projections, a dark horse that we expect will rise from a losing record to a Super Bowl contender. This year, that team is the Carolina Panthers.

 

has this been posted?

 

shall I CP more?

[The Huddler]

I will say, it seems like we are getting more respect than usual.

 

I feel like there are a few big name media outlets that are calling for us to win.

[Fiz]

Week 4 at Atlanta: The most famous of Rivera’s bad deci- sions. Leading 28-27 with a about a minute to go and facing a fourth-and-1 at the Atlanta 45, Rivera elected to punt rather than try for a first down. The Panthers punted despite the pres- ence of Cam Newton, possibly the best short-yardage rushing quarterback in NFL history, as well as DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and short-yardage specialist Mike Tolbert. By the end of the year, the Panthers had the NFL’s best rush- ing success rate in Power situations. Carolina already had 199 rushing yards at that point in the game, so it’s not as if they had trouble rushing against the Falcons defense. Brad Nort- man pinned Atlanta on its own 1-yard line with 50 seconds left and no timeouts, so Rivera’s decision to punt worked out as well as possible. It didn’t matter. The Falcons’ first play was a 59-yard pass to Roddy White, moving well past where they would have had the ball had Carolina failed on fourth down, and they eventually kicked a game-winning field goal with ten seconds to spare.

Even before that, though, Rivera’s coaching was question- able. After Atlanta scored a second-quarter touchdown to go ahead 17-14, Carolina got the ball at its own 20-yard line with 1:49 to go and all three timeouts left. They then ran a series of short passes and runs, wasting valuable time, and eventu- ally went into halftime with a timeout in their pocket without even crossing midfield. When Carolina should have shown urgency, they played as if they were killing a lead. 

 

oh god the memories

[UNCrules2187]

Twas posted about 3 weeks ago, but doesn't hurt to read again:

 

[CPcavedweller]

Why that was such a bad decision is beyond me. No time outs and 50 seconds left at your one yard line. If every article or person were to say, "in retrospect" proceeding the obligatory bad decision I would understand. 9 out of ten times we win the game in that same situation, hell ill raise that to 99 out of 100 times. That's as improbable a come back there has been.

[Chimera]

I don't feel like looking for the article, but somewhere a bunch of mathematicians got together and figured up that RR lowered our chance of winning by like 20% with the punt.

I know I was thinking (before the punt) that we would definitely go for it on 4th and 1. Then the punt team came out and I thought "ok, playing with emotions; we're going to call timeout when the playclock hits 1"

Then we punted and my kids learned some four letter words.

[Frizzy350]

To be fair the odds of atlanta moving the ball from the 1 to the 40 were less probable than us converting the 4th and 1.  Cards were against us and if we failed the 4th and 1 we'd be hearing about how bad a decision that was.

[TheRed]

Even before that, though, Rivera’s coaching was questionable. After Atlanta scored a second quarter touchdown to go ahead 17-14, Carolina got the ball at its own 20-yard line with 1:49 to go and all three timeouts left. They then ran a series of short passes and runs, wasting valuable time, and eventually went into halftime with a timeout in their pocket without even crossing midfield. When Carolina should have shown urgency, they played as if they were killing a lead.

 

This is a prime example of the pansy ass football that Rivera coached, and it ended up getting Hurney fired.

 

If I see any of that this year, I will flip the fug out.

[Lt Pinkerton]

To be fair the odds of atlanta moving the ball from the 1 to the 40 were less probable than us converting the 4th and 1.  Cards were against us and if we failed the 4th and 1 we'd be hearing about how bad a decision that was.

 

Absolutely, but at the time of the punt it was not known that the ball would have been downed at the one.

[thunderraiden]

To be fair the odds of atlanta moving the ball from the 1 to the 40 were less probable than us converting the 4th and 1.  Cards were against us and if we failed the 4th and 1 we'd be hearing about how bad a decision that was.

 

Ummm no, no no no no no no no.

 

Just by going for it on fourth down, the Panthers had an 83.5 percent win possibility.

To calculate the win probability with the Panthers punting, ESPN Stats & Information used data since 2001 to get the net punt average of 31 yards for all punts between the 40- and 50-yard lines. This means the expected field position of the Falcons after the punt (and delay of game penalty) is their own 19-yard line. This situation (Falcons with first-and-10 from their 19, with 59 seconds left in the fourth quarter, etc.) would give the Panthers a win probability of 57.4 percent.

By choosing to punt, the Panthers decreased their win probability by 26.1 percentage points.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/39772/analytics-rivera-made-wrong-choice

 

I'll even give you the punt with knowledge of the 1 yard line, but to run a fuging COVER 2 defense the following play .... COVER 2 After your safety has been beat like a drum all game? Regardless of seven sack... a freaking cover 2 while they are at the 1 yard line.... let them run it out of the 1, good for them, waste their timeout... but for fugs sake, running cover 2?

 

[CatMan72]

The decision to punt wasn't bad... the decision to have Nakamura on the field in a critical situation was.

[Razeyfingers]

Did they calculate those odds with Nakamura in mind though. I mean, yes sure they did but. . . its tough to calculate for bumbling fools.

[Neylus]

this thread is giving me indigestion.

[Scrumtrilescent]

They should redo the calculations to account for the 11 on 10 mismatch the Falcons had.