Our GREAT defensive AND Offensive drive stats

[teeray]

Just got access to an actual computer back, usually I would try to do this every week, but I have been relegated to just my phone recently.

 

Some of you guys know that I prefer drive stats over most other stats to guage offensive and defensive performance.  I especially like them more than lump stats like Yards per game and points per game.  A team like Buffalo may average more Yards per game and points per game, but they are actually 25th in Yards per Drive and 21st in points per drive.  So they aren't playing better or more effeceint than us on offense, just that they are getting more possessions (drives).

 

Drive stats are more representative of what you are doing when you actually have the ball or when your opponent has the ball with no extra credit or extra cost for inflated or deflated possessions.  So without further ado this is what our team is ranked right now in a variety of drive stats:

 

Offense:

 

Yards per drive:                       8th

Points per drive                       8th

Turnovers per drive:                19th

Plays per drive:                       1st

Time of possession per drive: 1st

TDs per drive:                          3rd

FGs per drive:                          25th (not necessarily a bad thing, for example DEN is 20th)

Punts per drive:                       10th

Avoiding 3 and outs:                2nd

TD/FG Ratio:                           3rd

Points per Red Zone visit        8th 

TDs per Red Zone visit:           5th

 

 

Defense:

 

Yards per drive:                       11th

Points per drive:                       4th

Turnovers per drive:                 3rd

Interceptions per drive:             1st

Plays allowed per drive:            23rd

Time of possession per drive:  14th

TDs allowed per drive:              2nd

FGs allowed per drive:              17th

Punts per drive:                         21st

Forced 3 and outs:                    11th

TD/FG ratio:                               3rd

Points per Red Zone visit:         5th

TD per red Zone visit:                4th

 

 

 

 

Honestly, i thought our defense would be a little bit stronger across the board, but we are near the top in the really important ones like points per drive, turnovers per drive, TDs allowed per drive, and Red Zone TDs per visit.

 

All in all this is good.  It shows we are being mostly effecient on both sides of the ball despite our low overall number of possessions.  If we keep performing at this level, we will be in good shape.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff2013

 

 

 

[fieryprophet]

The most important stat for our offense is turnovers, period. Our fumble against Seattle screwed us over, the turnover on downs and red zone INT vs Arizona killed us, and Cam even threw an INT deep in Bufalo territory in that game. We keep working on protecting the football and everything will fall into place.

[iBBB]

you should keep a log of those ranks after each week. After about 3 weeks, you will be able to see a trend, if a trend is formed.

 

See my spreadsheet HERE > https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40564578/offenseStats.htm

[Peppers90 NC]

nice finds, we have been pretty solid minimizing 3 and outs during Cam's time here.  

[teeray]

you should keep a log of those ranks after each week. After about 3 weeks, you will be able to see a trend, if a trend is formed.

 

See my spreadsheet HERE > https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40564578/offenseStats.htm

 Probably should, but probably won't   :P

 

i do think your spreadsheet is pretty cool though, good work on that

[SIGCHI222]

Offensive time of possession (1st place) is big to me.  Keeping our defense well-rested becomes more and more important with Edwards taking the month of October off.

 

 

 

 

Then again, ......Fua.

[teeray]

The most important stat for our offense is turnovers, period. Our fumble against Seattle screwed us over, the turnover on downs and red zone INT vs Arizona killed us, and Cam even threw an INT deep in Bufalo territory in that game. We keep working on protecting the football and everything will fall into place.

 

if it weren't for pooty turnovers and drops, our points per drive would be probably 3rd or 2nd.  Mainly because we have the least amount of possessions in the NFL (albeit with one less game than many also)

[dos poptarts]

Just finished compiling the drive stats from the gamebooks during lunch...since Teeray started this thread already, I'll just add in some observations. Continuing from post last week.

 

Rankings thru 6 weeks all teams: Drives starting from your own 20rd or worse.

% Scoring

1. Denver - 51% (19 scoring drives out of 37 drives total)
2. Carolina - 43% (10 scoring out of 23 drives)
3. Atlanta - 41% (13 scoring out of 31 drives)
4. GreenBay - 41%
5. SanDiego - 39%

League Worst: Tampa Bay @ 11% (interesting note: Tampa has not scored a TD on a drive 80+ yards all season. Only team that hasn't.)

StLouis: is 18th @ 25%.

League Average is 28%.

 

Carolina Week to Week ranking (all scoring, 80+yds):

Wk1 - 21st @17%

Wk2 - 6th @40%

Wk3 - 2nd @46%

Wk4 - 2nd @46% (bye week, Denver held onto #1, no one climbed past the Panthers)

Wk5 - 6th @38%

Wk6 - 2nd @43%

 

And before people start yelling FieldGoals instead of TDs,....Carolina (30%) is still 2nd to Denver (43%)if you only look @TD drives of 80+ yds. So right now it's taking Peyton's record setting performance to hold onto that #1 spot.

 

I have total drive data ready also, but the reason I look at 80yd+ drives is my opinion (not yet supported by any data) is that I can try to evaluate if this offense and Schula are actually any good. Requires that your offense HAS to move the ball to score. Some teams operate well on short drives caused by their defense or special teams making plays. But isolated, they are very pedestrian. I.e. SanFran abused Greenbay's poor zone scheme in week 1 (ranked #1 @80%),  but have since fallen to 16th (26%).

 

As for the Panthers, they are a true enigma...just like last week, they are still only 1 of 2 teams (Bengals) that scoring drive % gets worse as I included all drives. Average is an increase is 7%, Panthers at -6% (32nd in the league). Not sure if this is a Schula playcalling issue, Cam rhythm, or just some type of redzone issue. Still needs drilldown.

 

Will provide defensive version later.

 

Correlation not causation data point: Teams who have a better # of drives (than their opponent) starting better than your the 20yd line won 73% of the time. There are quite a few teams who can't score consistently if they have to drive 80yds. Undefeated Kansas City only scores 21% of the time, 26th in the league. On a "soft" schedule. On the flip side, the KC defense is only allowing only scoring drives on 12% of drives.
 

 

[fieryprophet]

Just finished compiling the drive stats from the gamebooks during lunch...since Teeray started this thread already, I'll just add in some observations. Continuing from post last week.

 

Rankings thru 6 weeks all teams: Drives starting from your own 20rd or worse.

% Scoring

1. Denver - 51% (19 scoring drives out of 37 drives total)
2. Carolina - 43% (10 scoring out of 23 drives)
3. Atlanta - 41% (13 scoring out of 31 drives)
4. GreenBay - 41%
5. SanDiego - 39%

League Worst: Tampa Bay @ 11% (interesting note: Tampa has not scored a TD on a drive 80+ yards all season. Only team that hasn't.)

StLouis: is 18th @ 25%.

League Average is 28%.

 

Carolina Week to Week ranking (all scoring, 80+yds):

Wk1 - 21st @17%

Wk2 - 6th @40%

Wk3 - 2nd @46%

Wk4 - 2nd @46% (bye week, Denver held onto #1, no one climbed past the Panthers)

Wk5 - 6th @38%

Wk6 - 2nd @43%

 

And before people start yelling FieldGoals instead of TDs,....Carolina (30%) is still 2nd to Denver (43%)if you only look @TD drives of 80+ yds. So right now it's taking Peyton's record setting performance to hold onto that #1 spot.

 

I have total drive data ready also, but the reason I look at 80yd+ drives is my opinion (not yet supported by any data) is that I can try to evaluate if this offense and Schula are actually any good. Requires that your offense HAS to move the ball to score. Some teams operate well on short drives caused by their defense or special teams making plays. But isolated, they are very pedestrian. I.e. SanFran abused Greenbay's poor zone scheme in week 1 (ranked #1 @80%),  but have since fallen to 16th (26%).

 

As for the Panthers, they are a true enigma...just like last week, they are still only 1 of 2 teams (Bengals) that scoring drive % gets worse as I included all drives. Average is an increase is 7%, Panthers at -6% (32nd in the league). Not sure if this is a Schula playcalling issue, Cam rhythm, or just some type of redzone issue. Still needs drilldown.

 

Will provide defensive version later.

 

Correlation not causation data point: Teams who have a better # of drives (than their opponent) starting better than your the 20yd line won 73% of the time. There are quite a few teams who can't score consistently if they have to drive 80yds. Undefeated Kansas City only scores 21% of the time, 26th in the league. On a "soft" schedule. On the flip side, the KC defense is only allowing only scoring drives on 12% of drives.

 

 

Great info. But this team just doesn't make any damn sense, we're like the Mask reincarnated as a football team.

[Jesse]

I feel like I walked into a scene of Moneyball

[dos poptarts]

Some Quick defensive #s.

 

Scoring drives allowed 80+yds

Panthers - Tied for 10th with 5 other teams (@24%)

1. KC - 12%
2. SF - 16%
3. DET - 17%
4. PIT - 20%
5. CLE - 21%

One caveat - Panthers are making opposing teams drive 80+yards 73% of the time to score TDs. Tied for 1st with Denver. THANK YOU Gano, Norman, and the Panther Offense for not going 3 and out. :thumbsu:

New Orleans is 3rd @66%.

 

Pitt is last @36%. (so that 4th ranked number above is misleading team stat)

 

[rayzor]

it's almost sickening that we can look like that and still have a losing record.

 

 

[PhillyB]

it's almost sickening that we can look like that and still have a losing record.

 

it points to bad situational football, which points most glaringly to coaching, which obviously then points straight to ron rivera. it takes a special level of incompetency to find ways to lose with this kind of production on the field.

[rayzor]

it points to bad situational football, which points most glaringly to coaching, which obviously then points straight to ron rivera. it takes a special level of incompetency to find ways to lose with this kind of production on the field.

 

yep. game management has been his biggest problem from the beginning and, imo, handing the OC job to shula who has also been bad in the in-game decision making process in tampa and bama was just asking for more trouble.