BrianS

The actual numbers over the last 25 years is that the first round QB's succeed at about 50%, and the other rounds at about 10%. The last 10 years or so have been weaker. I read somewhere on the Huddle in the last couple days that an analyst had predicted that would be the case due to so many one read systems cropping up in the college game. If true, that guy is a genius. ffs this again. Mac Jones hit receivers running so ridiculously wide open that anyone could have done it. This is the same Mac Jones who couldn't manage to beat out Tua at 'Bama. Tua, who has looked flat out bad in the NFL. Show me Jones fitting a ball in a tight window. Show me Jones hitting the deep out cross field. Show me Jones bringing his team back from behind in the fourth. Listen, it's not his fault he never had to show that. I get it. But he still hasn't shown it. I'd rather have a guy who has shown those things. I'd rather have a guy who played out of his mind on a two or three loss college team, that dealt with adversity, who didn't have the best around him and showed some of those NFL traits.

This to me is the biggest strike against Bridgewater. I don't care how far he throws it, as long as he wins. I don't care who he throws it to, as long as he wins. Bridgewater had eight opportunities this year to show me that he's a WINNER. He failed to accomplish it . . . EIGHT TIMES. You can't go on a Super Bowl run with a guy who can't come up big in big situations. This is the problem with Teddy. Imagine Teddy managed to get it done four times out of eight. Again, I don't care how. Had he done so, this team would have been 9 - 7 and we would have all been amazed at how quickly the franchise turned. We would have gone into late game situations with the mindset that "We have a chance". Nope. We have no shot with TB5. Even the locker room at this point has to see it. He just didn't get it done, and you can't go to war with "that guy" leading the charge.

I was more thinking in terms of positional spending versus post season success. I tried to do it with Spotrac but apparently that's a "premium" feature. What positions SHOULD you spend on to achieve post seaons success, again, QB aside since it's stupidly obvious.

Sure, but set aside QB for a moment. Honestly, QB is so obvious it's not even very interesting. Everyone gets it. I think the interesting data here would be what positions actually increase your chances over the baseline. Is it WR? Is it RB? DE? LT? I'd love to know, I just don't even know where to start to collect all that data.

Bear in mind, the chance for any team to reach the Super Bowl any given year is 6.25%. In this case, it appears that high dollar running backs actually slightly increase your chances from 6.25% to 8%. Not huge, but there it is. As was said, Brady has REALLY skewed stats the last 15-20 years. Six of the years since 2010 (the scope of the discussion) Brady has been in the game, meaning that those high dollar RB's didn't really have much chance. High dollar RB's are one thing, the GOAT QB is a different level entirely. I dunno, we all like to think there's an argument to be made against it, but I'm not so sure. At first glance, it doesn't appear that there is a strong case in either direction.

NO. Tua looked friggin terrible man. Long windup, slow delivery, low velocity ball. All things that don't spell winner in the NFL. I don't want him anywhere near our squad.

Rebuilds done right don't happen quickly. We are currently on course for an EXTREMELY fast rebuild. 2021 is the last year where our cap is in a bad place. Let's not screw that up by pushing the pain into 2022. We were able to compete in 2020 with no offseason, a new staff and a weak roster. The roster WILL get better this year. Maybe not as fast as we'd like, but it WILL improve. Our staff will have an actual offseason to get things right. The staff will now have actual NFL experience. We aren't talking playoffs here, but with the right signings, draft picks and a healthy CMC we could win 7 games next year. Maybe 8 at a push. To me, that would be outstanding progress.

The only way I see Watson here is if Watson himself says "I don't want to go there" to pretty much every other team that makes an offer. That's his actual leverage in the situation, invoking his no trade clause if he doesn't like the team he's supposed to go to.

And Samuel, Curtis.

The problem with Curtis is you now have a conundrum. Was 2020 an outlier? His catch rate prior to last year was around 55%, but in 2020 it was 79%. That's a HUGE change, and you have to figure out whether that's sustainable or not. Had he continued his career catch rate last year, he would have caught 53 balls for 592 yards and no one would be talking about testing free agency. He'd be an easy retention, but would we even want him? Curtis knew it was a contract year. Did he play out of his skin specifically because of that? Will he drop back off to his career rates next year? You have to look at the body of work in my mind. You can't base a contract off of one year. This is what we all crucified Marty for. It's a tough call, but I think you let Samuel walk unless he demonstrates that he REALLY wants to be here.

Based on what? His BMI is higher than Trevor, so you're not talking about some toothpick of a prospect. He had the one shoulder injury that he played with since high school, had it fixed and has played two seasons since at a high level. Seems like grasping at straws for a reason not to like the kid. I don't think we have a chance in hell of getting him, but I really like him.

I've been trying to point this out for a while. If TB5 was not your guy, Mac Jones is not your guy either.

I don't think you can drag Carr into that argument, he went to an expansion team. Those teams are always bad. Carr was on a rookie contract as well. Sucks what happened to him, but there is really no evidence that he ever would have been good. His NFL completion percentage is right at the level he established in college. He was drafted where he was based on ONE great season in college. RG3 had priors with injuries in college. Torn ACL while at Baylor. Multiple injuries prior to the one that really ended him in the NFL. I think the guy was just injury prone, it happens. I certainly value good QB play, clearly the NFL does too. If you really wanted to argue for poorly run franchises wasting QB talent, you should probably look at the Lions / Stafford. Even that doesn't really hold up very well. Stafford had a chance to get out after 2015, he signed. Had another chance after 2017. Signed again. Players need to take responsibility for themselves. If you don't see your organization taking the right steps, DON'T SIGN THE CONTRACT. If you truly value winning over money, SHOW IT. The GOAT QB did exactly that for years in New England and helped them build an absolute monster. He took that attitude to Tampa, and won another one.

I don't disagree with your premise that bad teams should be punished for being run badly. In fact, the players and their agents ALREADY have the power to do so. They simply refuse to exercise that power in the face of the almighty "Payday".

This is a COMPLETELY different situation. Releasing or trading JJ was going to happen anyway. The cap situation in Houston is dire. It is nothing but a benefit to the Texans to have him off their cap. The fact that they did so via release as opposed to a trade is in fact handling JJ Watt with respect. He still had a year on his contract, they could have traded him to whomever they chose giving Watt no input to the situation. Deshaun has too much guaranteed money left on his contract to even CONSIDER handling in this manner. Forget about the value of the player.

The players are being silly. They already hold ALL of the power with the exception of one player on every team - whomever gets the franchise tag. No one is forcing a player to sign for any team. If they don't like the way the team is run, fine, don't sign. Go into free agency, bet on yourself. Look, I get it, rookies don't have much say, and that's fine. Most rookies don't really pan out anyway. Once that first contract is done, anything from that point forward is on their shoulders. Don't like the team? Don't sign. Not really sure? Take a shorter contract with less guaranteed money. The players for too long have simply tried to maximize their money. You can't have it both ways! If you want flexibility and mobility, fine, work that into your contract. Do you want a guaranteed payday? Also fine. Just understand that it limits those other things.

No, they haven't. That's what folks don't get. It's not any easier now than it was before. It's easier for receivers to get open, yes. The difference here is that with receivers more able to get open, a premium was placed on QB's who have great ball placement and anticipation. There are plenty of "good" QB's out there, but because receivers are more open now, ball placement and anticipation are incredibly important. In the past, it was ok for a QB to "just miss". Now it's not. That's new. Good QB's now have certain traits. Big arm isn't nearly as important. Sure, you need to be able to get the ball downfield - you can't be a Teddy Bridgewater - but hitting your receiver consistently in a place where he can catch and run is far more critical than being able to put it 70 yards down the field.

I don't see us picking up a WR before the fourth round unless someone inexplicably slides to the point where the value is just overwhelming. I don't believe the NFL has fully comprehended the actual impact of what they've been doing over the past 10 years making it more and more difficult to defend a WR. It's clearly made the discrepancy between an elite QB and a good QB much more obvious, and the difference between having a good QB and not having one even more obvious. Effectively, by changing the rules to allow more WR play, they've elevated the QB position to the point where you just can't compete without a really good one.

Torn by the idea of Darnold. Others have said, well look what happened when the Bills stuck with Josh Allen. And it's not really comparable. Allen made VERY clear strides forward every year. His completion percentage went up, every year. His TD% went up, every year. His INT% went down, every year. His yardage went up, every year. Some have "It's Gase fault" and I don't discount the legacy of Adam Gase either. But consider the curious case of Ryan Tannehill. He actually became a better QB under Gase. I know! I couldn't believe it either. But the stats are there. Gase drove Tannehill from a career 60% passer to a 65% passer. Gase did drive Tannehill's INT% way up, but as soon as Gase was out of the picture, it dropped back to his career norms, but his completions stayed up. That's where my concern with Darnold comes in. Darnold just isn't completing the ball. Remember, his rookie year, Darnold was NOT with Gase. I'm sure the ineptitude of the coaches was at a similar level, but the Gase QB effect we saw in Miami with Tannehill didn't happen with Darnold. Darnold has been who he is regardless of the coaching. No major shifts. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him. Jets get our 3rd and TB5, we get Darnold. No one will do that deal, but I'd take it if we could get it.

Of teams that gave up more points per game than we did, two made the playoffs (Browns and Titans). Of teams that scored fewer points per game than we did, none made the playoffs. *shrug*

This doesn't even make any sense. I mean "...performance was offset by all the new draft picks, so we moved closer to the middle of the pack..." You do realize that most people who bring in so many rookies fall to the bottom right? We were 31st on defense last year! THIRTY FIRST! Snow got us up to 18th, with a lesser group. By every measure, that defense overperformed given expectations and talent. Honestly, it wouldn't be all that hard to argue that our defense was better than our offense. Yes, I agree, a great many of our problems on offense revolved around the QB, but nonetheless, our defense handed the ball to our offense in the fourth quarter at least seven times this year with a chance to win. That's the kind of defense you want. Keep you in the game, hand the ball to your team and give them a chance.

Yea, pretty much every 3-4 team when they go nickel.

Wait, wut? Are you trying to say our defense UNDER achieved this year? Our defense went from 31st in 2019 to 18th in 2020 in terms of points surrendered. Our overall talent level decreased monumentally with the loss of James Bradberry and Luke Kuechly, and yet our results improved. Phil Snow deserves a damn medal for that alone, all the while he was being doubted across the media and fan base alike. Look, he may yet hit his ceiling. He may not be the guy in the long run. But he began a turnaround for us. He definitely deserves our support, and a chance to build on that.

I don't disagree, I too would rather have a "known" quantity. Unfortunately, the salary cap prevents every team from having "known" quantities at every position. The price for this player will be not just in picks but in cap as well. By trading away picks for a known player, you acknowledge a much larger cap hit, as well as take away some of your options to acquire lower cost players as well. It's a double whammy.

We *need* to keep our picks. We *need* to hit on our picks. That's all there is to it. You can't start thinking about trading away picks for vets until we actually have a team that competes. Let's take a year or two more to build a team. As long as we continue to improve, I can live with that. When we start having those winning years consistently, we can then start thinking in terms of needing to fill just a few key holes.