NFL ELO Ratings, Playoff Odds, Super Bowl Odds - Week 3

[h0llywood]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-3-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/

 

In light of all the negative crap this week, hopefully here are some positive nuggets going into week 3.

 

According to fivethirtyeight.com, an ESPN affiliate, Carolina has the 5th best ranking for all teams through week 3.

 

 

 

 

Carolina is simulated to win 10.7 games (3rd best)

67% Chance to win the Division (Best in NFL)

77% to make the playoffs (2nd Best)

9% change to win the Super Bowl (3rd Best)

 

 

I hope that this trend continues through the course of the year then we will be in good shape. #KEEPPOUNDING

[SZ James (banned)]

I'll wait for the unskewedpolls.com rankings

[Ruff]

ELO is a really comprehensive guide for rankings. It's similar to the system that's used in competitive chess, and it's what all of the major competitive video games use to calculate ladder rankings. 

 

It measure strength of opponent by using things like, winning against a higher ranked opponent gives you more points, losing against a lower ranking team gives you negative points, for example. It's really hard to use on a team-based game, though, because the system really is (usually) to determine individual rankings.

[gettlemanjack]

note the highest chances to make playoffs

80% - Broncos

77% - Panthers

75% - Bengals

71% - Seahawks

67% - Patriots

[SauceBoss]

this is the best time to put money down. 

[Seal (SmittyIsOurSavior)]

Honestly, if we run this season 100 times and we only win 9 Super Bowls...

 

For the first time in years and as one of the Huddle's classic cynics, I think we might be a little underrated.

[Seal (SmittyIsOurSavior)]

note the highest chances to make playoffs

80% - Broncos

77% - Panthers

75% - Bengals

71% - Seahawks

67% - Patriots

 

Ehh... I'd put us slightly below all of those teams, because AFC and because the Saints and Falcons haven't taken their last breaths.

[JawnyBlaze]

Ruff I'm glad you explained that because after just reading the OP I was about to post "wtf is an elo"

[h0llywood]

ELO is a really comprehensive guide for rankings. It's similar to the system that's used in competitive chess, and it's what all of the major competitive video games use to calculate ladder rankings.

It measure strength of opponent by using things like, winning against a higher ranked opponent gives you more points, losing against a lower ranking team gives you negative points, for example. It's really hard to use on a team-based game, though, because the system really is (usually) to determine individual rankings.

Thanks Ruff. It was late and I couldn't find how to explain it

[Panther53521]

I still dont think the 49ers should be rated 3rd ... they beat a terrible team in Dallas .. then lost to an average team at home.

[Mr. Scot]

I'm gonna speak up for all the oldsters here and say I didn't know that Electric Light Orchestra scouted football.

[British_Panther]

Just for clarity ELO systems are usually based on the last 2 years at least. Not sure about this one.

EDIT: Based on beginning of 2013 season onwards.

[tiger7_88]

San Francisco lol... early poll, huge skew in variance, I guess.