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Carolina AT Cincinnati Vegas Odds

jamos14

By jamos14,
in Carolina Panthers

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teeray Collaborator

teeray

Posted
Posted

It is absolutely NOT a prediction by Vegas as to who will win. The initial line is created as a prediction on how they believe the avg bettor will bet. Most people perceive the Bengals as the stronger team and Vegas expects higher bets on them. Therefore, they set the line to get money moving our way. As the bets come in during the week, the line moves.

Again....Vegas wants EQUAL bets on the two teams. If they get this, they automatically win by earning the juice.

pretty simple

Almost all initial lines are derived by algorithms that are designed to be predictive of an accurate outcome.

The line adjusts to betting activity to offset leverage.

Trying to inflate lines to try to get an advantage is counterproductive. The best way to get 50/50 action is to create good lines and then adjust.

If you start trying to inflate opening lines to reflect average public opinion, aware bettors are going to undercut it and it will backfire on you and you will get leveraged on an inflated line which would not be good, and if you try to readjust to far you will get middled which could possibly wipe out an entire sportsbook.

With the Internet resulting in a more informed bettor, the best way to get 50/50 action is to set a good line and adjust accordingly.

Most of these things are tales of more nefarious bookies from back in the day.

Most of the lines aren't even created by casinos anymore, but by outside statistician companies

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h0llywood Contributor

h0llywood

Posted
Posted

It is absolutely NOT a prediction by Vegas as to who will win. The initial line is created as a prediction on how they believe the avg bettor will bet. Most people perceive the Bengals as the stronger team and Vegas expects higher bets on them. Therefore, they set the line to get money moving our way. As the bets come in during the week, the line moves.

Again....Vegas wants EQUAL bets on the two teams. If they get this, they automatically win by earning the juice.

pretty simple

You know what you're doing and My last bookie was shut down. Can you be my bookie?

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JJT Newbie

JJT

Posted
Posted

And now the prerequisite explanation for how Vegas handicaps games...

 

 

Vegas is not prediciting that Cincinnati will beat the Panthers by 7 points. The only thing Vegas cares about is making money. Vegas ultimately wants to have an equal number of bets for both teams, and that is how they derive the spreads.  The point spread may change a number of times up until the game starts, based on how many bets are going for one team or the other.

 

Take this past weekend for example. On Friday the Bengals/Pats line was Even, meaning there was no spread either way and you basically could pick whichever team you thought would win, aka a "pick'em". 

 

A lot of bettors put their money on the Bengals, which in turn moved the spread towards the Bengals favor all the way to -3 by the time the game started.  So if you were like me and bet on the game at the last minute, you had to take the Bengals as 3 point favorites, which means the Bengals had to win by more than 3 points for me to win.  Dumb bet by me.

 

At least others have taken on this task.

 

Thank you.

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Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
Posted

I am a little fuzzy but that is not exactly how it works.

It is a prediction based on advanced analytics that take into account every player, weather, stadium, etc.

It is meant to be accurate, but you are correct that they want it to be even and don't want to be leveraged to much on one side of the other and so when betting starts spread will adjust accordingly.

This is correct. The odds-makers will rarely try to predict which way the money will go based on popular opinion. The exception would be things like setting a line on UK vs Germany in the UK where the line will likely be irrational.

 

There are plenty of professional handicappers out there running their own data so an irrational line will get jumped on very quickly unless the fish are offsetting it.

 

edit: by oddsmakers I mean the stats companies like accuscore. The actual sports books in the casinos may judgmentally move the lines but the initial line provided to the casinos is data driven.

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Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
Posted

People always point out that Vegas sets the line to induce betting on both sides, not to represent the likely outcome/team strengths/ect, however these two things usually coincide. I'd say 90% of the time the line is a fair representation when all measurable factors are taken into account, and only when public opinion greatly overrates or underrates one side do they shift the line accordingly.

Yeah. I doubt Vegas is trying to predict public opinion much on a Panthers game.

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