NOLA.com breaks down all 128 NFCS Scenarios (Caution: Bayou Maths)

[Jase]

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2014/12/128_ways_the_crazy_nfc_south_race_could_end_a_guide_to_the_final_3_weeks.html

 

Odds of winning the division

Team Percent

Falcons 45.71

8-8 record 11.36

7-9 record 30.47

6-10 record 3.89

Saints 36.13

8-8 record 16.53

7-9 record 19.26

6-10 record 0.34

Panthers 18.09

7-8-1 record 11.2

6-9-1 record 6.89

Based on probabilities of 128 outcomes occurring using Sagarin ratings.

 

Could one team clinch a playoff berth before the final week?

Yes, Atlanta and New Orleans both have a chance to clinch a week early and then rest for the playoffs in Week 17.

 

If the Falcons lose to Pittsburgh on Sunday and then the Saints beat the Bears on Monday night, the Saints could clinch the division by beating Atlanta on Dec. 21 if the Panthers lose to either Tampa or Cleveland.

 

The Falcons could also clinch the division on Dec. 21 by beating the Saints, assuming they beat the Steelers, the Saints lose to the Bears and the Panthers lose at least once.

 

The Saints could be eliminated from contention with a loss on Dec. 21 if Atlanta beats Pittsburgh OR Carolina beats both Tampa and Cleveland. (This is the case even if the Saints beat Chicago on Monday night).

[chknwing]

this is far too much to think about.  Panthers win out, saints lose 1 more game = playoffs.  I'm sticking with that

[Jase]

There are 25 scenarios where the panthers win the division.

Of those,

14 scenarios where we're in if we win out,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to TB,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to CLE,

and only 1 scenario where we're in if we lose to ATL.

Also, there are 2 scenarios where we win out and don't make it.

[Jase]

The one scenario where it's okay to lose to atlanta:

Falcons

L versus PIT

L versus NO

Saints

L versus CHI

W versus ATL

L versus TB

 

Hmmm asking for a lot, there.

[KSpan]

How do the Falcons have a better chance at 7-9 then 8-8?  Bayou maths indeed.

[Jase]

So here's your who to cheer for week 16:

 

If ATL and NO both lose this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If NO loses and ATL wins this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If ATL loses and NO wins this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

If both ATL and NO win this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

[Cary Kollins]

Holy crap if we could beat the Failclowns in their own house for the division champ, after the curbstomping we gave NO, that would make this season worth it.

[Goondal]

Really could use Pittsburgh beating Atlanta this week to give us some insurance.  If those jerks lose to the Falcons, after also losing to New Orleans and Tampa, all after destroying us, then I do not know what I will do.

 

Damn that first Atlanta game.  Ron screwed us there.

[Shufdog]

There are 25 scenarios where the panthers win the division.

Of those,

14 scenarios where we're in if we win out,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to TB,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to CLE,

and only 1 scenario where we're in if we lose to ATL.

Also, there are 2 scenarios where we win out and don't make it.

 

 

The one scenario where it's okay to lose to atlanta:

Falcons

L versus PIT

L versus NO

Saints

L versus CHI

W versus ATL

L versus TB

 

Hmmm asking for a lot, there.

 

 

So here's your who to cheer for week 16:

 

If ATL and NO both lose this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If NO loses and ATL wins this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If ATL loses and NO wins this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

If both ATL and NO win this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

 

 

[cbully]

 

[Sam Mills Fan]

Good luck trying to figure it out even though there are only three weeks left. I think we finish 6-9-1 and we'll look back at what Rivera did in the Cincy overtime and late against the Falcons the first time and think what if?

[Jase]

How do the Falcons have a better chance at 7-9 then 8-8?  Bayou maths indeed.

 

They don't have a better chance, that's just the percentage of total scenarios that get them in.  If the falcons go 8-8, they have a 100% chance of getting in.

[KSpan]

They don't have a better chance, that's just the percentage of total scenarios that get them in. If the falcons go 8-8, they have a 100% chance of getting in.

Ah. Well then, fug the Falcons.

[Ruff]

I wish they would do magic numbers like baseball.