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An updated statistical analysis of NFL WRs and their draft positions

tiger7_88

By tiger7_88,
in Carolina Panthers

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tiger7_88 Experienced

tiger7_88

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Yikes.  Have you ever taken a statistics class?  You're incredibly obsessed with mean values and you're completely missing the value of the median.

 

I took Stats in 1983.

 

Since then, I have become a simple caveman who understands only chisels and rocks.

 

I'm sure you can come up with a reason why Victor Cruz, who was undrafted in 2010, should not be counted as a #1 or #2 because he's an "outlier" and he "skews the data", but you know what?  I consider him to be a #1 or a #2 WR.

 

So I count him.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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I took Stats in 1983.

 

Since then, I have become a simple caveman who understands only chisels and rocks.

 

I'm sure you can come up with a reason why Victor Cruz, who was undrafted in 2010, should not be counted as a #1 or #2 because he's an "outlier" and he "skews the data", but you know what?  I consider him to be a #1 or a #2 WR.

 

So I count him.

 

What is this stuff you're talking about with guys not counting?  Do you understand how you find the value of the median in a data set?  They count.  The median just gives you a better picture of the true center of a data set than the mean when the values are widely spread or when the outliers are heavily skewed one direction or the other.  In this data set that we're discussing, the outliers are heavily skewed toward the lower end of the draft.  The primary cluster of data is toward the top end of the draft.

 

That's why when you see real estate values being discussed, it's ALWAYS the median.  If you have 10 houses sold and two were sold at $200k, five were sold at $500k, two were sold at $800k, and one was sold at $5M you get a mean selling value of $950k and a median value of $500k.  Which gives you the more accurate picture of the overall market in that area?  The median value doesn't ignore outliers, it simply decreases their ability to heavily skew your data.

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Mol3m4n Mentor

Mol3m4n

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I took Stats in 1983.

Since then, I have become a simple caveman who understands only chisels and rocks.

I'm sure you can come up with a reason why Victor Cruz, who was undrafted in 2010, should not be counted as a #1 or #2 because he's an "outlier" and he "skews the data", but you know what? I consider him to be a #1 or a #2 WR.

So I count him.

Cruz would still count.

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pstall Newbie

pstall

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What is this stuff you're talking about with guys not counting? Do you understand how you find the value of the median in a data set? They count. The median just gives you a better picture of the true center of a data set than the mean when the values are widely spread or when the outliers are heavily skewed one direction or the other. In this data set that we're discussing, the outliers are heavily skewed toward the lower end of the draft. The primary cluster of data is toward the top end of the draft.

That's why when you see real estate values being discussed, it's ALWAYS the median. If you have 10 houses sold and two were sold at $200k, five were sold at $500k, two were sold at $800k, and one was sold at $5M you get a mean selling value of $950k and a median value of $500k. Which gives you the more accurate picture of the overall market in that area? The median value doesn't ignore outliers, it simply decreases their ability to heavily skew your data.

I was reading thru the thread and was going to use real estate example. Good job.

OP i think your data is very good for applying a value index of a draft pick. Which is good.

I see where linville is coming from as well.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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I'm really not trying to be an asshole here, though I'm sure I'm coming across as one to tiger7_88 and my apologies for that.  I'm just trying to point out how this data is skewed.

 

Let me point it out this way...

 

tiger7_88 has argued that the average drafting position of starting NFL WRs is the 21st pick of the 3rd round.  Using the mean, sure, we can say that.  However, is it an accurate representation of reality?  Not even close.  The handful of late rounders and UFAs badly skew the data downward.

 

Without digging through all the data for the individual data points and using the less accurate round data, we can see that 53.1% of starting WRs were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round (I actually initially counted 54.7%, but let's go with the data I presented for every round where I know I missed two WRs).  An additional 15.6% of starting WRs are drafted in the 3rd round.  Just for simplicity sake, let's say that half of them were drafted prior to #21 which is likely a conservative assumption since the halfway point of the round is 16.5.  That means that 61% of starting WRs were drafted before the "average" draft position of a starting NFL WR.  This clearly indicates the downward skewing of the data that I'm talking about.

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Stumpy Grand Master

Stumpy

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LG, I get what you are trying to say, but why not do the median of the overall pick, not the round.

Based on OP...

(2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6, 7, 10, 12, 13, 19, 20, 20, 22, 22, 23, 24, 27, 27, 28, 30, 33, 36, 39, 42, 42, 45, 49, 52, 54, 58, 60, 61, 61, 64, 74, 74, 76, 78, 78, 82, 83, 84, 84, 87, 92, 108, 109, 114, 118 119, 144, 159, 195, 205, 216, 232, 252, 253, 254, 255, 255, 256, 256)

Gives a median draft position of 60.5, end of the second round. Only about a half round off of what OP came up with and right around our 2nd this year.

Here's to Shaq in the 1st and our new starting WR in the second!

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pstall Newbie

pstall

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I still say this is more or less a value index of a draft pick. You would measure out to basically how much you will pay based on your "value" you have attributed to the slot of the pick.

Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys in the early 90's figured this out first and then were able to draft better and trade better than anyone else. Then others caught on.

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