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Official NFL Free Agency Thread


Mr. Scot

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Just now, CarolinaNCSU said:

I feel like we've probably seen our big FA news the last couple days, except for hoping the division rivals make some dumb deals (cough Atlanta and Sanu cough)

Hey now. Sanu is a steal at $7M. He's a huge upgrade at QB.

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In reference to that Gettleman quote about not trying to win the SB in March.... did others of you see the really cool article (at least for a stats geek like me) at BBR this afternoon. 

Statistical evidence that teams spending less in free agency win more.  Very interesting:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/winning-nfl-free-agency-is-a-myth-030316
 

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Winning in free agency means losing on the football field.  But you won't find such commentary from the media or the fans of the teams locking up the best available players.  However, the fact is, winning free agency and winning games are negatively correlated. The best teams in the NFL avoid free agency like the plague, utilizing it only when absolutely necessary.  The worst teams in the NFL try to get better overnight, and instead, further compound their deficiencies.  

The below analysis relates to free agency spending over the last 3 years.  Over those 3 years, only one of the 7 teams who spent the most in free agency has posted a winning record (Colts) while only one of the 7 teams who spent the least in free agency has posted a losing record (Texans).  Teams like the 2015 NFC Champion Panthers, or the 2013 and 2014 NFC Champion Seahawks, have voluntarily spent as little as possible in free agency.  Joining them were the Packers, Steelers and Bengals.  Meanwhile, losing teams like the Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, Jaguars, Jets and Bears have spent nearly as much as possible in free agency.

 

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First, to make it simple, the following graphic illustrates free agency spending vs wins over the last 3 NFL seasons.  It's clear that as free agency spending (the red line) decreased, winning (the green line) increased.  Teams like the Packers, Panthers, Steelers and Seahawks are bunched to the right of the graphic, having spent the least in free agency, but are teams with some of the best records.

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To break it down further, I mapped out the teams as data points against free agency dollars and wins the last 3 years, and included the averages for free agency dollars (just under $200M) and wins (a 24-24 cumulative record).  Once again, the red trendline indicates the negative correlation between spending in free agency and winning games.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins PhD said:

I wonder if the depth at DT in the draft has affected our contracts to our DTs 

I think that's likely. DG is probably salivating at some of the DTs in this draft, who could be had much cheaper and much younger than what's on the market. That said, I want Love back

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I am not too worried about loosing Love along the Dline. We should be fine, especially because interior D linemen are VERY deep in this draft. Remember he is a rotational piece, and we have picks that we need to use. Can't keep everyone, especially when comp picks come into play. Let another team sign him for a 2 year deal, with him, Nortman, and Amini possibly getting a deal somewhere else. We can actually pick up a comp pick this year.

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Eleven Panthers become Free Agents

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Eleven-Panthers-Become-Free-Agents/8ace9ae0-b685-4812-9694-e16033b8e25b

WR Jerricho Cotcheryicon-article-link.gif: A favorite target on third downs this past season with 13 NFL seasons under his belt, the last two with Carolina.

CB Cortland Finneganicon-article-link.gif: Ten-year veteran virtually came out of retirement late last season to serve as nickel corner, a position that isn't clear-cut for Carolina going forward.

OT Tyronne Greenicon-article-link.gif: Hasn't played in a game since 2012 and spent last season on injured reserve with an Achilles injury.

S Roman Harpericon-article-link.gif: A leader in Carolina's secondary the last two seasons after spending his first eight years with the Saints.

DT Kyle Loveicon-article-link.gif: An important rotational player last season who recorded three sacks behind starters Kawann Shorticon-article-link.gif and Star Lotuleleiicon-article-link.gif .

P Brad Nortmanicon-article-link.gif: The only punter ever drafted by the Panthers averaged a career-best 45.4 yards per punt in 2015 but was below 40 yards in net punting average for the third time in his four seasons.

G Amini Silatoluicon-article-link.gif: Second-round draft pick started 15 games as left guard as a rookie in 2012, but injuries limited him to 19 games over the last three seasons.

CB Charles Tillmanicon-article-link.gif: It's fair to wonder if the veteran of 13 seasons who had the last three seasons cut short by injuries will play in 2016, especially coming off a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

C Fernando Velascoicon-article-link.gif: The versatile backup each of the past two seasons was out of football before re-signing with the Panthers last season after Week 1.

QB Joe Webbicon-article-link.gif: Blossomed into a valuable special teams performer who can also play quarterback and even wide receiver if need be.

DE Frank Alexandericon-article-link.gif: The Panthers didn't make a qualifying offer to the exclusive rights free agent who is currently serving a one-year suspension that isn't scheduled to be lifted until late November.

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