Fascinating stat on changing role of DBs over time

[KB_fan]

At MMQB today, Peter King posted a really interesting stat as part of a lead in to a discussion of Jalen Ramsey's likely pecking order in the draft:

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/03/colin-kaepernick-trade-broncos-49ers-titans-jalen-ramsey-nfl-draft

 

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Stat of the Week

The 2015 season was the seventh straight year for an increase in the number of defensive snaps in the NFL on which five or more defensive backs were on the field. Per Pro Football Focus, here is the percentage of plays in NFL games with five DBs or more on the field in every season since 2008:

2008: 43.4%
2009: 45.1%
2010: 48.8%
2011: 52.5%
2012: 54.4%
2013: 58.3%
2014: 60.3%
2015: 63.4%

This is revolutionary, really, and something we don’t talk about nearly enough. Five years ago about half the defensive snaps in the league occurred with four defensive backs on the field; last season it was almost two-thirds of the snaps with five or more defensive backs on the field per snap.

 

 

That definitely looks like it warrants some further analysis / discussion.  My brain is FRIED tonight and I can't imagine doing much with this for a few days... but it certainly caught my interest.

Would love others to chime in with perspective / analysis.  Thanks.

[KB_fan]

Here's another snippet from King's write up:

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A defensive back has been picked first overall only one time in the history of the NFL, in 1956.  But understand these reasons why times are changing in the NFL. Last season the NFL saw new records set for touchdown passes allowed (842), completion rate for quarterbacks (.630) and passer rating (90.2). Ramsey became an interesting X factor for those reasons, and because the Titans are so desperate for help at both tackle and corner.

The pick will probably come down to Tunsil or Ramsey for Tennessee. Both will visit the Titans in the coming weeks, and that will provide more clarity. It’s been thought that Tunsil was more logical, but there are a few things making Tennessee do more homework on him. He is a natural left tackle, to be sure. But he isn’t a classic downhill left tackle, which the Titans want; they just traded for bullish back DeMarco Murray and want to run the ball significantly. And players with history in a college spread offense, like Tunsil, have to adjust, and that’s no sure thing.

The NFL, as the Pro Football Focus numbers show, has transitioned into more of a three-down passing league. Ramsey had only three interceptions in the past three college seasons at Florida State, but he seems the most pro-ready corner in this draft. He’s a 6-1, 210-pound specimen with the ability to cover the kind of big receivers the league is fielding today. He can play cornerback, he can move inside and cover the slot receiver, and he can play a centerfield kind of safety if need be. He’s the kind of versatile defensive back every coach wants.

 

 

[Nate Dogg]

If this trend continues to grow, lucky for us our front 6 is the best in the league. With only Luke and TD out there at linebacker they mind as well be considered 3 men.

[KB_fan]

One question this stat brought to mind is re: our pick of Shaq last year, and our reported strong interest in Su'a Cravens this year.  In spite of the criticism G'man received for drafting a "tweener" like Shaq, was he in fact ahead of the game (surprise surprise) in looking for versatile players who can fill multiple roles in the defense? 

I realize Shaq doesn't actually play safety, but my (limited) understanding is that his versatile skill set gives us lots of flexibility in our defensive alignments... 

Am I anywhere close to being on target with that conclusion?

 

[Nate Dogg]

9 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

One question this stat brought to mind is re: our pick of Shaq last year, and our reported strong interest in Su'a Cravens this year.  In spite of the criticism G'man received for drafting a "tweener" like Shaq, was he in fact ahead of the game (surprise surprise) in looking for versatile players who can fill multiple roles in the defense? 

I realize Shaq doesn't actually play safety, but my (limited) understanding is that his versatile skill set gives us lots of flexibility in our defensive alignments... 

Am I anywhere close to being on target with that conclusion?

 

I agree fully. I think Shaq is a slot receiver's worst nightmare. A dude lined up across the ball who's essentially just as agile and quick as you who can straight rip your head off.

[thefuzz]

10 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

One question this stat brought to mind is re: our pick of Shaq last year, and our reported strong interest in Su'a Cravens this year.  In spite of the criticism G'man received for drafting a "tweener" like Shaq, was he in fact ahead of the game (surprise surprise) in looking for versatile players who can fill multiple roles in the defense? 

I realize Shaq doesn't actually play safety, but my (limited) understanding is that his versatile skill set gives us lots of flexibility in our defensive alignments... 

Am I anywhere close to being on target with that conclusion?

 

"Tweeners" are a getting more and more popular as we go along these days.

In our division, and that's the first thing smart GM's look at when figuring out how to build a team, we have 2 short yardage passers in Brees and Ryan.  Shaq helps negate the TE's and slot WR's while still being able to help in run support.

 

 

[pantherclaw]

River prefers to keep 3 LBers on the field. Hence why we put a premium on athletic LBers, so we can play.more out of our base defense. 

[PandaPancake]

You can't dick around with receivers as much as you used to so of course we will need better and better DB

[TNPanther]

I'm surprised nobody has made a "revolutionary 11 safeties Rob Ryan defense" joke yet...

[PandaPancake]

Some jokes have ran their course

[R0CKnR0LLA]

That Boykin signing is gonna be YUUGGEE

[Dave Gettleman's Shorts]

This is great for our offense as well because teams are too focused on stopping the pass that they will be forced to stop Cam and Jstew with 5'10, 190 pound dbs.