Reviewing the Panthers Roster Prior to the Draft.

[KB_fan]

As many people have noted in recent weeks, the Panthers aggressive free agency means we've got a sizeable roster headed into the draft.  The Panthers roster currently stands at 80 players.  The roster limit for training camp is 90 players.  We have 8 picks in the draft, plus the chance to bring in UDFAs and more free agents.  Where is DG going to make space for all the new players?!

While it is WAY WAY WAY too early to make any real roster predictions, I did find it helpful to review the roster today, trying to further assess at what positions the Panthers could really use help from the draft and to look at what players might already be on the bubble, at the risk of being released if we draft new talent.

Here's an overview of the roster broken down by position, and with an attempt to subdivide the players for each position into 3 priorities. 

1. probable starters/key rotation guys  
2. depth / backups; 
3. camp fodder / practice squad types

It surprised me quite a bit to discover I could easily come up with a pretty darn solid 53 man roster of category 1 & 2 players, with very few holes, (especially on Defense, Offense has some questions & holes still.)

Here's an overview of the roster, looking at the numbers of players at each position.

 

One would think that with 41 offensive players and 35 defensive players currently on the roster that we might have more holes on defense.  But I don't think that's the case at all.  We've got TONs of WRs & OTs (18 total at these 2 positions) on the roster, but many many are likely guys we're just churning through to see if we can find a diamond in the rough.  Even with 18 players on the roster at these positions, these are still two of our areas of greatest need.

Here's a look at all the players on offense and defense, grouped by position, with my rough classification as to what categories they fit in.

Players in blue are more or less presumed starters / key role players.  Yellow are the backups / depth to fill out the 53 man roster.  Red presumably will get cut.

Offense:

 

On the Oline, obviously we can't have 3 starting tackles, and it's not a position where one uses a rotation.  If Oher is healthy enough to start, Daryl Williams becomes a backup, perhaps competing with a newly drafted tackle.  If we think Williams and/or any newly drafted tackle are suitable backup at guard, a player like Chris Scott or Amini Silatolu could be let go.   I predict Larsen will win the Center backup role over Gradkowski.  In any case, there is definitely room to draft a tackle.  With Matt Kalil on the roster, and IF Oher is healthy, we could perhaps get by without drafting any tackle, but I know we'd all like to see Gettleman find someone to draft and develop for the future and to strengthen our depth at this position.

QB is obviously not a need, but if a player (Dobbs) we like falls to us at one of our later picks, who knows, we could draft one as a developmental project, especially with Cam not being able to throw until training camp.  If we were to end up drafting Christian McCaffrey, that could put Joe Webb's spot on the roster in danger as he is our "utility offense guy" (RB backup, WR backup, returner.)  Obviously McCaffrey could not fill the QB3 slot on the roster though, and I think we'll want 3 QBs on the roster this season given that Cam's coming off shoulder surgery.

RB/FB:  There is room for another starter / main rotation player.  I've given Stew & Fozzy the highest priorities, but really only Stew is safe.  CAP seems to be very much on the bubble given that he's been given hardly any playing time in 2 years.  Fozzy would probably be safe (he was one of the first players we re-signed this off season.  Coaches like him.)  if we were to draft Fournette, but would be doubtful to keep if we draft McCaffrey.  As for Fullback:  I assume we keep a dedicated FB on the roster, assuming Darrel Young or Devon Johnson show the necessary talent.  Obviously we might look for a different FB, but I'd guess that would be through Free Agency rather than the draft.

TE:  Only Olsen is a sure thing.  We went through how many TEs on the roster last season?  And still we ended up with Greg & Ed Dickson.  We all would like to see an upgrade from Dickson.  There is definitely a spot on the roster for a TE... We could "live with" Olsen / Dickson & Simonson again.  But why SHOULD we when this is a really really talented TE class.  I will be extremely disappointed if we don't draft a TE in the 1st 3 or 4 rounds.  To ignore this need would be very shortsighted.

WR is far and away the biggest question mark on our roster.  Really only KB and Funchess can assume to be pretty sure of a roster spot at this point.  (And even Funchess could be bumped down or off the roster if someone clearly beats him this summer, though I doubt we give up on him just yet.)  We obviously hope Shepard & Charles Johnson#2 will add something to the WR stable, but none of us have seen them take a snap in Panther Blue, so they're not certain yet.   Byrd excites a lot of the fans but he's having surgery this offseason, could be tough for him to gain a spot.   WR competition will be WIDE OPEN yet again, and there is space to draft/add 1 or 2 WRs to compete & upgrade this position.

So, in summary, looking at the roster, I identify these priorities for the draft on offense:

1. WR:  (need)
2. OT: (need)
3. RB: (less a NEED than an opportunity with a really deep & talented draft class and wanting to strengthen & evolve on offense and limit Cam's runs)
4. TE: (need / opportunity.  Dickson's not adding much.  This is a very good TE class.)

• Guard: no need.
• Center: no need if we like Larsen or think Gradkowski is solid enough
• QB:  if a promising talent is there are one of our later picks.... why not?

 

DEFENSE & Special Teams:

 

On Defense:  DANG, Dave Gettleman has done a fantastic job this off-season filling holes.  Apart from the question of the AGE of a lot of our players on defense (a valid concern, which I'll address in a minute), I'd be pretty happy with our potential 53 man roster (the blue & yellow guys) even if we didn't add ANY new player on defense!  Seriously, look at that defensive roster and realize that for ANY new draft pick on defense to make the 53 man roster, one of the 26 players in blue or yellow is going to have to go.  WOW.  TOUGH TOUGH choices ahead in building the roster on defense.

The guys most on the bubble would seem to be

• Ryan Delaire
• Kyle Love
• Zach Sanchez  / Teddy Williams (or really any of the CBs behind Bradberry / Worley / Captain)
• Dean Marlowe

Basically, the only issue on defense is AGE.  We need talented youth to develop behind Peppers & CJ, TD and Mike Adams.

On D: I think we should aim for 2 players in the draft:  A young talented pass rusher is the biggest need,  then a strong safety.

CB it would be nice to have more depth / competition to push Worley.   At LB: we've got decent depth already, but it wouldn't hurt to "replace" AJ Klein.  Shaq is already being well-groomed to be able to take over for TD when the horrible day of his retirement comes, but with AJ gone, it's worth starting to develop another new LB.

But apart from a DE to play in rotation to learn behind Pep & CJ and to give us some young legs among the DEs, we're not looking at needing to draft a starter or key rotation player on Defense.  We're looking a DEPTH and developmental players.   This is a huge reason why I keep saying I want us to go offense heavy in the early rounds of this draft.  It's on offense we have more holes & question marks.   Our current Defensive roster could go out and start tomorrow.  We have the luxury of being able to strengthen the depth behind the presumed starters, but we've got a very solid defense already.

All told, I want to see us come away with about 6 players out of our 8 picks in the draft:

• 2 or 3 high picks going to Offensive Weapons: (RB / TE / WR)  (rounds 1 - 3)
• 2 or 3 mid - high picks (rounds 2 - 4) for DE & S or OT
• 1 mid to late pick BPA at any position where we could strengthen our depth:  (CB, LB, QB)

 

[KB_fan]

I should have added a few sentences about special teams to my write up. 

Kickers:  We should bring in competition for Graham Gano.  His missing some key field goals last season, plus his contract price means his position is not safe. 

If Dave has gotten priorities filled in rounds 1 - 5 of the draft with picks to spare (i.e. he hasn't traded away all our lower round picks to move up at various spots) grabbing a kicker in round 6 or 7 wouldn't upset me, but I assume we'll look for a UDFA or free agent to bring in to compete.

Punters:  I assume that even given his high price tag, if he's healthy, we'll keep Lee.  I assume we're keeping Palardy as insurance for now in case Lee is not fully recovered from injury and probably to take some of the minicamp / training camp workload off Lee. 

[Ace_Aladdin]

Look at that Carolina Blue at all 3 levels of the defense

D-Line

LB corp

Secondary

We also have a lot more  older Veteran Core Players on Offense, this is one of the better draft to inject the offense with younger elite talent.

Have to stay balanced if Panthers want to win the SB.

[Untouchable]

Great write up!  Gettleman has consistently gone right after the greatest need in the first round.

Year	Need	Selection
2013	Run D	Star
2014	RZone Offense/WR	KB
2015	Buffalo Nickel	Shaq
2016	CB	Butler
2017	Offensive Evolution	???

2016 was the exception but the front office also said there strategy changed (A pass rusher does help the corners but it's roundabout).  I would not expect this year to be any different and with all the talk about evolving on offense, I expect an offensive weapon coming in round 1.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Ah yes, been waiting for this. Great stuff as always.

[KB_fan]

3 minutes ago, sanjay_rajput said:

We also have a lot more Veteran Core Players on Offense

Not sure I understand what you're trying to say here?  Our Defense is much older than our Offense, I believe.

 

Here's who I'd consider veterans / core players on O:

Cam (still in his prime);  DA:  Yes this could be his last season.  Looking for a replacement not totally crazy, but QB is not strong this draft.

Ryan Kalil (We may be grooming Larsen as a backup for now? Showed promise...)

Greg:  We definitely should be grooming a new TE alongside.  This is a priority in my opinion given the talent of this TE class.

Stew:  With the talent of this RB class, it seems a great time to pick up new young talent.

Oher, may already be on the way out depending on his health....  Got to hope Matt Kalil proves to be the guy DG is hoping he'll be.

WR:  We have no aging veterans or real core players other than KB.

 

Basically, in terms of preparing to replace veterans, TE and RB would seem to be priorities given the talent in this draft class.    Center, we may already have found a pretty good young guy... doesn't seem a huge priority this season.  QB: maybe next season replace DA?  This year we're probably ok...   WR:  We need more talent period.  It's not a problem of aging veterans as just a weak WR room.

[Ivan The Awesome]

I'd like to pick up Patrick Mahomes. I doubt we'd be able to take him in the second but if he falls I'd love to have Cam's replacement already. 

 

If anything I hope this draft we go offense heavy. 

[bababoey]

I would disagree with you where you say Guard is no need.  Since both our starting Guards are free agents next year and non of the back ups look like starters in the future I would argue that Guard is a bigger need than Tackle. The draft, for good GM's, is not about what you need this year, it's about what are you going to need next year.  Because this year most of these guys really won't be ready.  

[top dawg]

Just a note: Darrel Young is a seasoned vet. There's really no reason to think that he can't do the job, as he has been effective before. The only question with him will be how long he'll be here. I would think he's a one to three year Band-Aid. I feel that they must like Rockhead and feel that he can do the job because they gave him a bonus as as a UDFA, waived him to make room for Willie Smith when our O-line was decimated, then obviously picked him back up. He's an intriguing player who could just be in our long term future.

Perhaps that's why we let Kyle Juszczyk go off to the west coast without even a look. Perhaps they believe we're good at the position (though with Rockhead's injury history, I'd think that we're always looking).

[KB_fan]

2 minutes ago, bababoey said:

The draft, for good GM's, is not about what you need this year, it's about what are you going to need next year.

I totally agree with you in principle, but Guards are perhaps one of the positions where it is easiest to plug and play and where there may be enough talent floating around in free agency most years. 

Also, IF Oher is healthy and starts next to Kalil, then we've got Daryl Williams.  Can he be part of our depth / developmental talent at guard?  Also if we do draft an OT to develop this year, he too could be a potential answer at guard for next year.  Apart from LT, most Oline guys are expected to play multiple positions on the line...  OTs back up Gs.  Gs back up Cs....

In addition to Williams and a potential new OT draftee, what about Silatolu?  Larsen?  I'm not saying any of these is obviously the caliber of Turner or Norwell, but I don't think the need is great enough for us to focus on guard this year unless a guy we see as a very good talent falls to us at one of our mid-late picks.   Of note is that we've not had reported contact with ANY guards expected to go before round 7, I believe.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

Great write-up.  I am going to cross post to a couple other sites. 

[Panthers8969]

25 minutes ago, Ivan The Awesome said:

I'd like to pick up Patrick Mahomes. I doubt we'd be able to take him in the second but if he falls I'd love to have Cam's replacement already. 

 

If anything I hope this draft we go offense heavy. 

???

[Panthers8969]

Great post OP. You have me feeling really good about the defense. One thing that sucks to see is how old some of our players are though. Team could look pretty different in 2-3 years

[panther4life]

@KB_fan Great post! Based on history it's safe to say Gettleman will trade 2-3 of our later round picks to move up and downsize to 5-6 picks, which aligns with your hopes.

In 14: he gave up 168 and 214 for 148 (Vikings)-To draft Bene

In 15 he gave up 50 ,89 and 201 for 41(Rams)- To draft Funchess

In 15 he also gave up 124,161 and 242 for 102(Raiders)- To draft Daryl Wiliams

In 16 he gave up 93,129 and 168 for 77 and 141. -To Draft Worley mainly, but the 2nd acquired pick was used on Zanchez.

Also Gettleman has never came out of a draft with more than 6 players. 

2013  5 drafted players

2014 6 drafted players

2015 5 drafted players

2016 5 drafted players.

One thing I like about Gettleman is he does not give a poo about late round picks.

Traded 4 out of 5 possible 7 rounders. Last year was the exception but 252 probably couldn't net us anything.

Traded 2 out 4 possible 6th rounders.

Traded 3 out of 7 possible 5th rounders

and in the last 2 years he's gotten even more aggressive trading our original 3rd and 4th's to move up