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Analysis - Panthers record when leading since 2015 [Update: Also added data re: record when trailing at halftime]

KB_fan

By KB_fan,
in Carolina Panthers

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I've been increasingly bothered by people moaning here and on Twitter about how Ron is such a lousy coach, "always going into Prevent and squandering leads."  I've had the impression that's less true these days (not to say there haven't been a few too many Cardiac Cats moments for comfort....)

As part of some data analysis I was already working on, I had a chance to do a bit of digging into the numbers.

What got my attention initially was working on / reviewing my 2017 Panthers data spreadsheet.  Did you know that Panthers led in 10 2017 games at halftime and won all 10 of those games.  That's right.  Last season we never lost a game in which we led at halftime!

So I decided to take the analysis further...

Here's how Panthers have fared since 2015 based on the status of the game at halftime,  (and also, in the final row, whether Panthers EVER led during the course of the game)

1049513563_Panthersrecordwithaleadsince2015.png.0ea58ed823732305e56984b77c7aa8e3.png

Note:  REGULAR SEASON ONLY

Since 2015 (51 total games, including the first 3 weeks of 2018), the Panthers led at halftime in 34 (67%) of their games.  They WON 30 of those games (88%) - with all 4 of those losses coming in 2016.  Yes, that's right, Panthers have won ALL 24 games in which they led at halftime in 2015, 2017 and 2018,  and 6 of 10 games in which they had a halftime lead in 2016.  [On the flip side, Panthers have been very weak in mounting a comeback when they've trailed at halftime, winning only 3 of 13 games in which they trailed at halftime since 2015.]

In terms of EVER having a lead in a game, Panthers had a lead in 44 of their 51 regular season games since 2015 (86%).  They won 34 of those games (77%).  

Those numbers in terms of winning when having a lead looked pretty good to me, but I decided it wouldn't mean much without knowing the league average and how other teams had fared.  

So, here are those numbers, thanks to Pro Football Reference.  I didn't see a way at PFR to show games in which a team led at halftime, only the games in which a team EVER had a lead, so that's what I analyzed.  The Outcome in games in which a team EVER  LED since 2015.  The table below is ranked by the Win % of games in which a team ever led:

1497994155_EverLedWinsSince2015(NFL).png.622a4418adfab53661fd5853ccd05887.png

Not too surprising to see the Patriots are the leaders, both in terms of % of games in which they ever had a lead (90%) [see the right hand columns] AND their win % in games which they led (87%).

But the Panthers are WAY up there.  Panthers are 4th in terms of % of games ever having a lead (86%) and 6th in terms of Win % when ever leading (77%).

The other teams up there with the Panthers & New England in winning more than 75% of the games in which they ever had a lead:  Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Minnesota.  (Miami is also up there, but note Miami's VERY LOW % of games ever leading.  3rd worst in the league.  So, Yes, Miami won a very high % of games in which they had a lead, but they didn't have a lead nearly as often as other teams.)

Not too shabby.  Ron may go into PREVENT when Panthers have a lead, but he and the team have been extremely successful in winning when they have had a lead since 2015.

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One other thing to mention.

In the second table above, I've shaded the rankings of the teams to have 75%+ win percentage of games when ever leading (6 teams).  And I've also shaded the top 10 teams who have had leads in at least 80% of their games.

Note the Falcons!  Falcons actually are second in the league (behind New England) in terms of the highest % of games in which they have ever led since 2015.  But they drop all the way down to 16th in terms of their winning % when having had a lead.

The Patriots, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and the Panthers are the 4 best teams in looking at both columns - getting a lead and pulling off a Win.

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2 minutes ago, KSpan said:

Yes the team won, but what were the final margins comapred to the leads? I think people take issue either the game sleep ke the Giant and Seahawks in 2015 where huge leads were blown and games were still risk that never should have been.

I have that data actually (% of lead maintained).  I'll post that tomorrow.

I'm not denying there have been plenty of Cardiac Cats moments and allowing teams to get too close (or even losing a big lead and having to mount a comeback).  But we DID win games in which we had a lead at a higher rate than 26 other NFL teams.  I'm ok with that.

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Moo Daeng Experienced

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Letting Shula rejoin Gettleman and picking up more offensive weapons was done in attempt to improve the issues of not being able to have leads at half and not having the aptitude for mounting comebacks. Personnel plus new offensive playcalling and QB coaching will hopefully turn those dials. It works quite well if your offense can maintain keep the ball and clock ticking. Shula couldn't do that when needed.

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38 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

Thank you for real analysis.

The tendency for people to repeat things that were never true (emphasis added) is strong here.  

Appreciate the thanks.  But there IS a kicker here. 

This wasn't something that was NEVER TRUE.

Like the tired "We always do badly after a bye" [which hasn't been true in the regular season since 2014, after having been true in SPADES from 2011-2014...]  the Panthers and Ron were not always good at winning when we had a lead.  In fact we were below the league average in each of 2011, 2012, 2014 and also for the 4 year period 2011-2014, in spite of a strong 2013.

I don't have the data as to whether or not Panthers led at halftime for the 2011 - 2014 games, but thanks to PFR, it was easy to compile the data for games Panthers EVER led during those years:

319045251_PanthersEverLed-WinSince2011.png.1adfec81819d7a9700cc879f4a51b676.png

It's so interesting to me that the % of games in which Panthers ever led from 2011 - 2014 is 86% (55/64); identical to the Panthers % from 2015 - 2018 week 3 (44/51 games).

But look at the huge difference in % of games won when the Panthers had the lead at some point: Only 58% in 2011-2014 compared to 77% since 2015.  [The league average for wins when a team had a lead in 2011-2014 is 63%]

So, the evidence is pretty solid that Ron and the Panthers have IMPROVED over time.  Here's hoping we can stay near the top of the league in terms of winning when we have a lead in 2018 because our track record of GETTING a lead in games is VERY solid - even in the early years of Ron & Cam.

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True. My statement wasnt about this specific issue and that's my fault. 

We make changes to improve and people look for things to bring up from further back. I suppose It just annoys me that some can never be happy and sports are about eternally looking for something to be unhappy about.

I digress. This is great info.

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