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Decision Tree Analysis and assigning Expected Value as it relates to Cam.

SBiii

By SBiii,
in Carolina Panthers

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SBiii Newbie

SBiii

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How many of you are familiar with the concept/exercise?

Have any of you taken time to work through the retain > trade > cut scenarios and assign any Expected Values to each?

If so, what were your numbers?

If you aren't aware of the concept and have questions feel free to fire away...

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micnificent28 Veteran

micnificent28

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Dude we get it. Every thread u make is some I hate and want cam gone thread. Having a debate about what his trade value isn't going to make it happen. Dispite tepper clearly saying a decision on him hasn't been made u skip around that and like oh so what we getting for cam?

Why do they still let you post..

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SBiii Newbie

SBiii

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56 minutes ago, micnificent28 said:

Dude we get it. Every thread u make is some I hate and want cam gone thread. Having a debate about what his trade value isn't going to make it happen. Dispite tepper clearly saying a decision on him hasn't been made u skip around that and like oh so what we getting for cam?

Why do they still let you post..

You are completely off base and clearly have not been reading anything I have written on the topic.

In fact...I 100% believe Tepper should retain Cam....and I also believe Cam will never suit up for any other team in the NFL other than the Carolina Panthers.

I know the fog is thick in your little personal micro-climate but is my position now clear with you?  I have my doubts so again let me say:

I do not believe the Panthers will trade Cam.

I do not believe the Panthers should trade Cam.

I do not believe the Panthers will cut Cam.

I do not believe the Panthers should cut Cam.

I do believe the Panthers should retain Cam.

I do believe that Panthers WILL retain Cam.

GOT IT?

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micnificent28 Veteran

micnificent28

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31 minutes ago, SBiii said:

You are completely off base and clearly have not been reading anything I have written on the topic.

In fact...I 100% believe Tepper should retain Cam....and I also believe Cam will never suit up for any other team in the NFL other than the Carolina Panthers.

I know the fog is thick in your little personal micro-climate but is my position now clear with you?  I have my doubts so again let me say:

I do not believe the Panthers will trade Cam.

I do not believe the Panthers should trade Cam.

I do not believe the Panthers will cut Cam.

I do not believe the Panthers should cut Cam.

I do believe the Panthers should retain Cam.

I do believe that Panthers WILL retain Cam.

GOT IT?

I see I need to pull up your previous post history before u tell another lie.. 

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SBiii Newbie

SBiii

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Question for the crowd.....what's a 1st round pick worth in monetary terms?

Is there any sort of dollar amount that can be attached?

I'm not aware that teams can buy & sell picks but if they could what would it cost Hurndog to go out and but high-middle 1st round pick?

Would $4 million be a proper number?

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SBiii Newbie

SBiii

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OK, so there are 3 possible scenarios Mr. Tepper faces when deciding how to handle Cam:

1. Cut him.  2. Trade him.  3. Retain him.

There is a 4th scenario where Cam holds out and Tepper lets him sit but I believe the odds of that are nil so am ignoring it for this exercise.

1.  The Cut Scenario:  Expected Vaue = ($2,000,000)

In this scenario Tepper has to pay $2,000,000 to Cam and it's over.  The Panthers receive nothing back in terms of compensation and the Expected Value is negative $2,000,000. (a bad outcome)

Anyone want to take a shot at laying out Expected Values for scenarios #2 and #3?

Asked before but will ask again, any idea what a 1st round NFL pick is worth in terms of cash money?

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SBiii Newbie

SBiii

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39 minutes ago, bababoey said:

Trying to keep your own thread going because no one else cares who cares family guy GIF

 

Just trying to support QB1 and make a logical case for why Tepper should definitely retain him.

That's what people want isn't it?

I believe that's what will happen.  Tepper is a logical thinker and will do what's in the best interest of the team --- that would be Scenario Three:  Retain Cam.

Do you want to make an educated guess at the Expected Value of that situation?  Hint....it's a significantly positive number.

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uncfan888 Grand Master

uncfan888

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19 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He loves to play this game of "smartest guy in the room" regardless of if anyone cares or if the topic is even remotely intelligent. 

But the bad thing is.. None of this stuff is intelligent. He throws around a lot of big words that don't even make sense. Plus him calling kaepernick fro bro and already being banned once for racial takes tells you what you need to know about him

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