The Draft matters more than ever

[Mr. Scot]

This has been mentioned before, but in the current context it's a good time to bring it up again.

If you look around at the free agent news, you'll see an awful lot of overpayment. Even average players are getting big deals.

Why? Well, primarily because some teams are stupid, but also because that's what it takes.

If you want to sign even half-decent free agents, you're going to be paying through the nose. Ditto keeping your own players, including the ones that are nothing special.

That's why drafting well (and not just in the first round) is more important than ever.

If you can build your team through the draft, then you aren't forced to pay premium prices for standard players in free agency. Likewise, when your previous starter wants big money, you're not required to pay it because you already have the next man up.

Such is the landscape of today's league, and if we want to be true, consistent contenders, we're going to need to adapt to it.

That, or we can just continue to tread water like we've been doing for the last 25 years.

[steven8989]

We still have Hurney so don't see that happening this year.

[Waldo]

Hopefully we will get good at some point at drafting. Maybe we should hire better people first.

Im tired of huge misses and guys who are good on cheap deals but never worth the money of a non-rookie contract. Nothing looks diferent this year except whatever Rhule brings to the table but I'm not confident he is in charge of the clown show.

I completely agree about the overpayment in free agency. It's jusy not the route to go to build success but we haven't been doing so well in the draft either.

[Mr. Scot]

Albert Breer mentioned just a few years ago that teams have gotten very good at keeping their own best free agents.

That's left the free agent pools relatively weak. Unfortunately, some teams are still willing to pay big money and that drives up the price. And if you're a team that doesn't draft well, you've got needs that have to be filled.

Thus, here we are...

Draft well, retain your own players without overpaying and win to make yourselves a desirable destination. That's a formula that can work.

[Waldo]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

Albert Breer mentioned just a few years ago that teams have gotten very good at keeping their own best free agents.

That's left the free agent pools relatively weak. Unfortunately, some teams are still willing to pay big money and that drives up the price.

Thus, here we are...

Draft well, retain your own players without overpaying and win to make yourselves a desirable destination. That's a formula that can work.

Hoe close to this formula do you think we are today?

[Jon Snow]

Just now, Waldo said:

Hoe close to this formula do you think we are today?

Not even in the ballpark.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, Waldo said:

Hoe close to this formula do you think we are today?

You don't wanna know.

[MHS831]

You have 53 roster spots (I think, unless that changed).  The more first contract players you have on the roster, the more you have to pay your stars. So Marty, for example, has a strong first round draft history--so what?  The art of drafting is finding the players on day 2 and 3 that contribute on first contracts. If you find 3 starters in a draft, you are doing great. 

Let's say a GM drafts 4 players a year that are on the roster in four years.  That means that, on average, you have 30% of the roster comprised first contracts.  These players, in theory, are being developed and those worthy of a second contract are given a fair contract at market value to stay. 

I would not be surprised to see this team draft 4 starters (unless a QB is in there).  I could see a DT, WR, CB, and LB start in 2021.

[MHS831]

Mr Scot, this complements my thread about how most free agents underperform their contracts.

The Bills did not read it.

[stbugs]

1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

You have 53 roster spots (I think, unless that changed).  The more first contract players you have on the roster, the more you have to pay your stars. So Marty, for example, has a strong first round draft history--so what?  The art of drafting is finding the players on day 2 and 3 that contribute on first contracts. If you find 3 starters in a draft, you are doing great. 

Let's say a GM drafts 4 players a year that are on the roster in four years.  That means that, on average, you have 30% of the roster comprised first contracts.  These players, in theory, are being developed and those worthy of a second contract are given a fair contract at market value to stay. 

I would not be surprised to see this team draft 4 starters (unless a QB is in there).  I could see a DT, WR, CB, and LB start in 2021.

We will draft starters this year. Unfortunately, we may not draft any better than the past two years. We just have way more holes to fill.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, stbugs said:

We will draft starters this year. Unfortunately, we may not draft any better than the past two years. We just have way more holes to fill.

I am scared that you will be right---Hoping that Rhule and Co will have positive impacts.

[Jon Snow]

Just now, stbugs said:

We will draft starters this year. Unfortunately, we may not draft any better than the past two years. We just have way more holes to fill.

This.  Everyone drafted this draft will be starting whether they are "starters" or not.  There is just too many holes on this team.

[Khyber53]

We've got a lot of building to do and we're sitting well right now.

Even with a lot of holes in the team, we have certain strong advantages: 

1) We pick relatively high.

2) The hype is on QBs and WRs. Early rounds will see so many of these come off the boards (and look at how many quality WRs there are), leaving us a better selection of the positional needs we have (DT, OL, TE, CB, LB, S). 

3) We are in a draft position that can lead to trade offers, solid ones, netting more young, cheap players.

4) We have a ... screw this they just announced Cam is free to seek a trade.

All bets are off.