RB Performance in Wins and Losses.

[kungfoodude]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I8_i8HAUyYRf55U2sy7NW-aSRQV1xdT0vAAtqaGpAj0/edit?usp=sharing

Okay, I went into this trying to take a sample of some of the highest paid and best RB's in the NFL(over the past 5ish years) to see what the data showed in regards to performance in wins and losses. I went into it with a specific thing I was looking for and the data sort of indicates that. 

I'd like to see some interpretations of this information from a few people to see what their conclusions were. Also open to modifying to include additional players or stats.

 

I'm also insanely hungover right now, so if I fuged up some of these calcs, let me know.

[TheCasillas]

thanks for throwing this together. Id say the variable that is glaring here is the QB position. No RB has a winning record that has an average or less QB (aside from Bell, but we know most of his wins came with Big Ben)

[Moo Daeng]

Seems to say running creates wins or winning teams foster running. Though I'm not sure any big conclusions can be drawn.

 

[pantherclaw]

I'm not sure what you're hoping to prove/disprove. 

No matter how you color his contract, he is a playmaker, and is paid as such.  

[kungfoodude]

I think an interesting outlier is Dalvin Cook. His stats being definitively better in wins is much more like the guys with winning overall records. 

But, you have to consider that last year and this year, Minnesota's biggest successes came from him being the focal point of the offense. Maybe that is one thing that is tough to account for, the style of offense that each team runs. 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, pantherclaw said:

I'm not sure what you're hoping to prove/disprove. 

No matter how you color his contract, he is a playmaker, and is paid as such.  

I was initially going in to show that high paid RB's generally don't have a big impact on W's and L's, but I don't think the data really showed that. Definitely not the way I expected. 

[kungfoodude]

I guess it sort of mildly shows that shitty teams RB's pile up a lot of stats in losses, whereas good teams RB's tend to pile up big stats in wins. 

[TheCasillas]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I was initially going in to show that high paid RB's generally don't have a big impact on W's and L's, but I don't think the data really showed that. Definitely not the way I expected. 

Or teams give the ball to their running backs when they have shitty qb play. 

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

Or teams give the ball to their running backs when they have shitty qb play. 

This too. I'd have to really look deeper to show that. I have overall performance but not YPC, etc. 

[AU-panther]

21 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

Seems to say running creates wins or winning teams foster running. Though I'm not sure any big conclusions can be drawn.

 

Are teams winning because the running more or are they running more because they are winning?

Teams that win a lot tend to be ahead in a lot of games (duh).  Teams tend to run more when ahead.

Teams that lose a lot tend be behind in a lot of games.  Teams tend to pass more when behind.

What if you looked at how well a team runs on a per carry basis?  Do the numbers change if you look at YPC?

 

 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, AU-panther said:

Are teams winning because the running more or are they running more because they are winning?

Teams that win a lot tend to be ahead in a lot of games (duh).  Teams tend to run more when ahead.

Teams that lose a lot tend be behind in a lot of games.  Teams tend to pass more when behind.

What if you looked at how well a team runs on a per carry basis?  Do the numbers change if you look at YPC?

 

 

Gonna take a look at that now. 

[onmyown]

I understand if you think he’s overpaid or it was a bad move. What I don’t get is how this is relevant to the topic of problematic bad contracts and crippling cap allocation decisions to the point it’s all people ever talk about.

I mean I get it, so I’ll add it to the list...it’ll be point #37.

[kungfoodude]

13 minutes ago, onmyown said:

I understand if you think he’s overpaid or it was a bad move. What I don’t get is how this is relevant to the topic of problematic bad contracts and crippling cap allocation decisions to the point it’s all people ever talk about.

I mean I get it, so I’ll add it to the list...it’ll be point #37.

Not really what I am after. Moreso looking at high paid/high performing RB's as a whole. None of my CMC's views are about him the player, it's about RB the position. 

[kungfoodude]

@AU-panther @TheCasillas

 

It's a sea of green in the averages, outside of CMC and Saquon. I also wonder how badly CMC's numbers have been shifted because of our attempts last season to boost his stats in garbage games rather than to try and win. 

I am gonna break down CMC's year by year splits and see if maybe last year permanently skewed all his data.