High draft pick..take advantage of it

[Panthers8969]

Imagine how pissed this place will be when we pass on one of Wilson/ fields/ lance for DW, losing 3 firsts + and then all those guys end up being top 10 qbs at a fraction of the cost 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Panthers8969 said:

Imagine how pissed this place will be when we pass on one of Wilson/ fields/ lance for DW, losing 3 firsts + and then all those guys end up being top 10 qbs at a fraction of the cost 

I would say the likelihood of Wilson, Fields and Lance all being top 10 NFL QB's is slim to none.

[Panthers8969]

Stafford likely costs a late first. A team like the saints/ Steelers would be willing to trade for him. The Age and injury history make him less valuable, but the talent is certainly there 

[cookinbrak]

Watson had 33 td passes last year. Jameis Winston had 33 the year before.

[Panthers8969]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I would say the likelihood of Wilson, Fields and Lance all being top 10 NFL QB's is slim to none.

How about just the one that’s available at 1.08? I’d also say the odds are irrelevant in a what if scenario. The point was just that we have a mystery box at 1.08. We could trade a bunch of mystery boxes for a proven player with a large contract or we could just open the mystery box. It’s tough for anyone to assign odds to the likelihood a pick pans out, your best bet would probably be historical data, but past players’ performances are completely independent from future/ players’ performances. Really impossible to assign odds to any one player. My point here though, is that not trading away a poo ton of assets for Watson and hitting on a rookie qb in the draft has a much higher reward (and more risk, but you have to risk it to get the biscuit).

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

I'd have to say using it to pick our own franchise quarterback without having to give away a bunch of other stuff that we can use to rebuild the team would be superior.

Granted, it's also a huge risk.

Yeah, it would be. But what are our realistic odds of landing a top 5 NFL QB with that pick? Probably really low. Hell, extrapolate that out to include '22 and '23 first rounders. Probably still pretty low. If we package those three picks together though... pretty damn high.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, Panthers8969 said:

How about just the one that’s available at 1.08? I’d also say the odds are irrelevant in a what if scenario. The point was just that we have a mystery box at 1.08. We could trade a bunch of mystery boxes for a proven player with a large contract or we could just open the mystery box. It’s tough for anyone to assign odds to the likelihood a pick pans out, your best bet would probably be historical data, but past players’ performances are completely independent from future/ players’ performances. Really impossible to assign odds to any one player. My point here though, is that not trading away a poo ton of assets for Watson and hitting on a rookie qb in the draft has a much higher reward (and more risk, but you have to risk it to get the biscuit).

The only real discussion is proven vs. unproven entity and the costs associated with each. 

Watson's value is astronomical. The value of the #8 overall pick his high, although yet to be determined because we don't even know if Fields, Lance or Wilson are still on the board at that point. 

None of the QB's in the draft, Lawrence included, would make me pass on taking a look at a deal for Watson if he were actually available. The cost may make my choice to go draft a guy easier but you can bet I would be on the phone talking to Houston.

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, it would be. But what are our realistic odds of landing a top 5 NFL QB with that pick? Probably really low. Hell, extrapolate that out to include '22 and '23 first rounders. Probably still pretty low. If we package those three picks together though... pretty damn high.

"Pretty damn high" would also potentially be a description of our salary cap.

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

"Pretty damn high" would also potentially be a description of our salary cap.

We're going to see some moves made that helps out cap considerably. Short is as good as gone. If we made a move for Watson, so would Teddy. It wouldn't shock me if Paradise is sent packing. I'm not sure if Shaq will be here beyond next year. If he is, I expect his contract to get renegotiated. 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

"Pretty damn high" would also potentially be a description of our salary cap.

Cap hit

2021: $10.54 mil

2022: $35 mil

2023: $37 mil ($17 mil is a roster bonus, so this is essentially an opt out year if necessary)

2024: $32 mil

2025: $32 mil

 

It gets a little high but if the cap starts going back up in 2022, it will end up looking like Cam's deal did in Carolina towards the end. Basically a pretty reasonable deal. It helps us a lot to have that $5.4 mil prorated bonus hit off the books.

[Jon Snow]

13 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

"Pretty damn high" would also potentially be a description of our salary cap.

Not counting the chance of him getting injured and all your plans are dashed in an instant.  The risk is too rich for my blood.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Not counting the chance of him getting injured and all your plans are dashed in an instant.  The risk is too rich for my blood.

Like say, behind the lousy offensive line that you're stuck with because you gave away some of your top picks?

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Like say, behind the lousy offensive line that you're stuck with because you gave away some of your top picks?

No one likes to give away first round picks but at least we might be in a situation now where we can be more successful OUTSIDE the first round for a change.

Additionally, keep in mind that IF your move to get Watson works out....those first round draft picks are going to be in the 20-32 range. 

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

No one likes to give away first round picks but at least we might be in a situation now where we can be more successful OUTSIDE the first round for a change.

Additionally, keep in mind that IF your move to get Watson works out....those first round draft picks are going to be in the 20-32 range. 

is that something you want to count on, though?

I just can't get behind this kind of move given where we are as a team right now.

If we were further along maybe, but I just don't see this as the right time.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Mr. Scot