Sax's Panthers Plan (or reality?): Trey Lance | QB | NDSU

[top dawg]

2 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

I guess if you say so then it must be true. LOL

Your opinion is not any more valid than mine, though I will say that more analysts seem to agree with mine.

[panthers55]

25 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Your opinion is not any more valid than mine, though I will say that more analysts seem to agree with mine.

Agreed. But I don't trot mine out as the definitive word like you just did. As for group think among analysts, the reason that picking is so difficult and inexact is that guys like Lance get hyped and then suck because everyone gets on the bandwagon. I like analysts who are right most of the time like Chris Simms who agrees with me not the crowd who are often wrong. 

[top dawg]

16 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Agreed. But I don't trot mine out as the definitive word like you just did. As for group think among analysts, the reason that picking is so difficult and inexact is that guys like Lance get hyped and then suck because everyone gets on the bandwagon. I like analysts who are right most of the time like Chris Simms who agrees with me not the crowd who are often wrong. 

Whatever! The ONLY real reason that Simms is critical of Lance is Lance's lack of throws! Lance doesn't have the number of throws to justify a first round pick in Simms' mind. He doesn't really knock Lance's physical prowess or his decision-making!

I've said ALL along that all Lance needs us more experience. If you think he's going to melt away under the pressure and won't rise to the occasion--basically bust--then say so! Don't hide behind Simms or anyone else!

Edited March 28, 2021 by top dawg

[panthers55]

Just now, top dawg said:

Whatever! The ONLY real reason that Simms is critical of Lance is Lance's lack of throws! Lance doesn't have the number of throws to justify a first round pick in Simms' mind. He doesn't really knock Lance's physical prowess or his decision-making!

I've said ALL along that all Lance needs us more experience. If you think he's going to melt away under the pressure and won't rise to the occasion--basically bust--then say so! Don't hide behind Simms of anyone else!

Again I am not in the Mond or Lance crowd. I have said that I don't know if Lance will bust but he is a huge gamble in the first and it would be nuts to give up multiple picks to move up for him. I think that is pretty clear where I stand. And I said that I am not a big fan of multiple picks for Jones although he is the third best QB in my opinion which is informed by guys I think know what they are talking about. I claim no expertise butI do pay attention to those that do. And no that is not all Simms was critical about Lance but he gave him leeway because he only started 1 season and couldn't play this year.  There is such a small body of work for a small school QB like Lance against anything approaching competition you can't say either way. Jones gets knocked for having superior talent around him helping him look better than he is  But Lance supporters saying that ignore that NDSU has a huge talent edge over their competition as well. Lance didn't throw in tight windows and have to be that accurate. And none of that talent for or against would be starting in the SEC. 

And really do you think we would have this conversation or one about Jones if I hid behind anyone and didn't go against the grain at times. 

[top dawg]

4 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Again I am not in the Mond or Lance crowd. I have said that I don't know if Lance will bust but he is a huge gamble in the first and it would be nuts to give up multiple picks to move up for him. I think that is pretty clear where I stand. And I said that I am not a big fan of multiple picks for Jones although he is the third best QB in my opinion which is informed by guys I think know what they are talking about. I claim no expertise butI do pay attention to those that do. And no that is not all Simms was critical about Lance but he gave him leeway because he only started 1 season and couldn't play this year.  There is such a small body of work for a small school QB like Lance against anything approaching competition you can't say either way. Jones gets knocked for having superior talent around him helping him look better than he is  But Lance supporters saying that ignore that NDSU has a huge talent edge over their competition as well. Lance didn't throw in tight windows and have to be that accurate. And none of that talent for or against would be starting in the SEC. 

And really do you think we would have this conversation or one about Jones if I hid behind anyone and didn't go against the grain at times. 

The other stuff was basically nothing, and certainly not enough for Simms to discount Lance (which we know he hasn't done).  

My thing has always been, if you think one of these guys is your guy, you get him regardless! That includes Lance! He has all the elite traits, and once he puts them together, it's hard to see him failing in the NFL. 

[CL1022]

On 3/26/2021 at 7:18 PM, Verge said:

Yeah I completely believe you. Lance has been on our front offices radar for a while. Just a matter of ATL not taking him.

I'm not quite following the thinking behind so many QBs being taken before 8. 

Jags- Obvious 

Jets- This pick will probably be Wilson, but it could be someone other than the Jets picking. 

49ers- Looks obvious, the question is which QB they traded up for. 

Bengals- Have Burrow

So that leaves the Falcons, Dolphins and Lions. The Falcons and Lions have QBs that will cost north of $30M in dead cap to move on from before 2023. (And in this Lions case, they just traded themselves into this position.) How likely are they to really use top 7 picks on someone who wouldn't play for 2 years? And the Dolphins just traded themselves OUT of prime position to take a QB, so they seem to be sticking with Tua.

 

So to me, it looks like: 

1. Lawrence

2. Wilson

3. Jones/Fields/Lance

8. BPA of Jones/Fields/Lance not taken at 3. 

Personally, I'm not a fan of Jones or Fields, but I do really like the idea of Lance after sitting a year. But this also suggests to me that IF we wanted to move up for Wilson, we would be in the best position to do so, having the highest pick available to offer to the Jets among the teams still targeting QB. 

 

Not claiming to be right at all. Just asking those with better info, what am I missing? 

[saX man]

If you can peer through and see the forest through the trees, there is a clear path to getting Trey Lance.

He's more of the project however the greatest reward.  The thing is, 49ers are in a win now; may even keep Jimmy G in place for a bit.  But Justin Fields is the pick there.  Mac is pro-ready but does not provide the upside, Lance is riskier, Fields has a resume, leadership, less of a project, and could start pretty soon, if not immediately.  Not to mention Kyle Shanahan coached Justin back at the QB collective and they have a history.  The bulk of 49ers nation also seems to think he's the guy.

So then, if ATL gets on the clock, doesn't trade, they land their top OT (a huge need) and see how much Ryan has left.  They are pre-build and FedEx Smith has more than just a year to figure it out.  There's no need for them to rush into a QB and I think he'll want to make sure he gets the top-non QB in the entire draft.

So, 1-JAX-Lawrence QB | 2-NYJ-Wilson QB | 3-SF-Fields QB | 4-ATL-Sewell-OT...

That leaves Cinci at #5 for us to trade with.  If we want Lance, that is the target. Alternate case is that it ends up not happening and we take Jones at #8, lose nothing.  Third case is that we target Kellen Mond in R2. 

And with this, we could easily release Teddy J1 designation, may even end up picking a worse vet like Foles.  This allows for a new vet/Trey Lance/PJ Walker group.  We'll have a new QB, it's just going to fall into place much differently than originally expected.

If Lance doesn't look ready, then you roll with the vet who's worse than Teddy, possibly netting us a high pick again.  If Lance looks legit, then all of a sudden we are in a really good spot with maybe (1) 1st, or a few draft picks given up.

[top dawg]

9 minutes ago, saX man said:

If you can peer through and see the forest through the trees, there is a clear path to getting Trey Lance.

He's more of the project however the greatest reward.  The thing is, 49ers are in a win now; may even keep Jimmy G in place for a bit.  But Justin Fields is the pick there.  Mac is pro-ready but does not provide the upside, Lance is riskier, Fields has a resume, leadership, less of a project, and could start pretty soon, if not immediately.  Not to mention Kyle Shanahan coached Justin back at the QB collective and they have a history.  The bulk of 49ers nation also seems to think he's the guy.

So then, if ATL gets on the clock, doesn't trade, they land their top OT (a huge need) and see how much Ryan has left.  They are pre-build and FedEx Smith has more than just a year to figure it out.  There's no need for them to rush into a QB and I think he'll want to make sure he gets the top-non QB in the entire draft.

So, 1-JAX-Lawrence QB | 2-NYJ-Wilson QB | 3-SF-Fields QB | 4-ATL-Sewell-OT...

That leaves Cinci at #5 for us to trade with.  If we want Lance, that is the target. Alternate case is that it ends up not happening and we take Jones at #8, lose nothing.  Third case is that we target Kellen Mond in R2. 

And with this, we could easily release Teddy J1 designation, may even end up picking a worse vet like Foles.  This allows for a new vet/Trey Lance/PJ Walker group.  We'll have a new QB, it's just going to fall into place much differently than originally expected.

If Lance doesn't look ready, then you roll with the vet who's worse than Teddy, possibly netting us a high pick again.  If Lance looks legit, then all of a sudden we are in a really good spot with maybe (1) 1st, or a few draft picks given up.

Sounds reasonable, but if someone decides to throw some bones the Falcons' way, we just may be screwed on the Lance math.

[saX man]

On 3/26/2021 at 5:37 PM, mav1234 said:

So does this mean your source says we are trading with Atlanta?  Seems only way we guarantee we get one of the top QBs... and Lance could go at 3 from the sound of things.

Shanahan knows Fields well and wanted him.  Wilson confirmed that they 100% wanted one of those two.  NYJ is NOT budging. 

Teams don't have Lance rated along Fields & Wilson.   And yup, some teams do in fact have Jones at #3.

 

[saX man]

2 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Sounds reasonable, but if someone decides to throw some bones the Falcons' way, we just may be screwed on the Lance math.

The Broncos are the team to watch but it may easily not materialize.  In ATL, a first year GM+Coach need to take advantage of having that type of pick, especially in this years draft with their choice of the top non QB.   

[top dawg]

6 minutes ago, saX man said:

Shanahan knows Fields well and wanted him.  Wilson confirmed that they 100% wanted one of those two.  NYJ is NOT budging. 

Teams don't have Lance rated along Fields & Wilson.   And yup, some teams do in fact have Jones at #3.

 

Zach Wilson, confirmed it?

[saX man]

1 minute ago, top dawg said:

Zach Wilson, confirmed it?

Pretty much.  They didn't even wait for the pro day to end to get it all in motion. Handshake (for lack of term) was likely in place before he even started throwing the other day.

[Happy Panther]

Lance has been my guy since the start. Get him at 8 and sit him behind TB for a year. When I jumped on this bandwagon the analysts said we would be reaching at 8. Now they say we will miss out. Will see what they say in a month.

[Jared Patterson]

Sax,

With regards to the 49ers trade....You think its Justin Fields even though he's hasn't had his Pro day yet? I would normally guess that it would be someone they've seen up close and dialed in on....either Jones or Lance and being sold on Wilson if he somehow slipped. Maybe if he knows Fields that's a different story.