State of the NFL

[mav1234]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I'm trying to argue the standard for somebody being a real run threat.

There are plenty of guys that can be referred to as "capable runners" that don't particularly scare defensive coordinators.

Again, my threshold for a guy being considered a true run threat is you having to commit somebody specifically to stopping him.

so you do not believe Murray scares defensive coordinators with his running ability?  I think you would be incredibly wrong there.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, mav1234 said:

so you do not believe Murray scares defensive coordinators with his running ability?  I think you would be incredibly wrong there.

Does he scare them enough to spy him though? That's my threshold.

Let's say you've got a runningback who can pass (like Dave Meggett used to).  Do you have to commit people to stop that?

Edited September 10, 2021 by Mr. Scot

[mav1234]

quick google search shows plenty of results for spying Murray, including some cases where teams opted not to do it since he was faster than any spy they had on their team LOL

[Toomers]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

It's not enough of one.

Hell, Darnold can do that. Does that make him a run threat?

Maybe we should compare Cam with Andy Dalton. Or Gabbert. 
 

   So if a DC doesn’t run a spy(specifically), they don’t even think about anyone’s mobility besides Lamar? 
 

   Good Lick with that. 

[mav1234]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

Does he scare them enough to spy him though?

That's my threshold.

If they have to change how the DL runs, have CBs always peaking in the backfield, have LBs staying home... that makes the defense account for that mobility in a way fundamentally different from immobile QBs.

and btw the answer is yes, teams do spy Murray, and various outlets refer to him as a "true dual threat", even SI.  And defenders think he is a running threat so...

[PNW_PantherMan]

I would consider Murray a dual threat.  Lamar is the most electrifying runner at QB since Michael Vick, but there's a fair amount of dual threat QB's in the league.  The position is just way more athletic than it used to be.  Maybe you don't spy every play, but I would argue that's not really a "dual threat" QB if you're all in on stopping the run threat every play.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, mav1234 said:

quick google search shows plenty of results for spying Murray, including some cases where teams opted not to do it since he was faster than any spy they had on their team LOL

And if they do, I'd buy it.

But when I think of run threats, I think of guys like Lamar Jackson, not Murray.

[PNW_PantherMan]

Even Russell Wilson I would consider a threat with his legs, because he changes how you rush the passer.  You can't pressure Russ the same way you'd pressure a statue in the pocket.  He does that Fran Tarkenton spin move thing and scoots up the field for 10 yards.

[trueblade]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

One thing I have to admit gives me a chuckle: I remember being told numerous times since Michael Vick that running quarterbacks were going to "change the game", yet I sit here watching the league continue to evolve more and more in favor of passing.

The reality is that passing has trumped running since the early days of the AFL, and I seriously doubt that's going to change.

Let us state your premise clearly: Michael Vick did not "change the game". This is something of a nebulous statement. 

That said, I would offer the following evidence that indicates something did in fact change in regard to rushing the football from the QB position between Vick's rookie year of 2001 and last season (2020). Causation here could be argued (was this changed because of Vick) but the change is clearly evident in the data.

Our metric here will be rushing attempts by a QB. This will include both scrambles and called runs. 

The data shows at that from 2001 to 2020, the number of QBs with more than 80 rushing attempts over a season increased by 250%. But that's just the top rushing QBs, the players many might label as "dual-threat". League wide (so taking the top 30 QBs), the average number of rushing attempts by a QB has increase by ~25%. 

Details:

In Vick's rookie season of 2001, there were 2 quarterbacks who topped 80 rushing attempts: Kordell Stewart, and Aaron Brooks. The average number of rushing attempts for a QB (using the top 30 QBs in rushing attempts) was 47.167.

In 2020, there were 7 quarterbacks who had more than 80 rushing attempts: Jackson, Newton, Murray, Allen, Watson, Hill, Wilson. The average number of rushing attempts for a QB (using the top 30 QBs in rushing attempts) was 58.7.

[Toomers]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Does he scare them enough to spy him though? That's my threshold.

Let's say you've got a runningback who can pass (like Dave Meggett used to).  Do you have to commit people to stop that?

When the last time a Panthers RB threw a pass? 2018? Comparing QB mobility equaling to a trick play is embarrassing. 
 

    

[Mr. Scot]

6 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

If they have to change how the DL runs, have CBs always peaking in the backfield, have LBs staying home... that makes the defense account for that mobility in a way fundamentally different from immobile QBs.

and btw the answer is yes, teams do spy Murray, and various outlets refer to him as a "true dual threat", even SI.  And defenders think he is a running threat so...

I don't right now, but I acknowledge that's just the opinion of me as a fan, not a professional.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, Toomers said:

When the last time a Panthers RB threw a pass? 2018? 

Oy, what a stupid response.

But why am I not surprised?

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, trueblade said:

Let us state your premise clearly: Michael Vick did not "change the game". This is something of a nebulous statement. 

That said, I would offer the following evidence that indicates something did in fact change in regard to rushing the football from the QB position between Vick's rookie year of 2001 and last season (2020). Causation here could be argued (was this changed because of Vick) but the change is clearly evident in the data.

Our metric here will be rushing attempts by a QB. This will include both scrambles and called runs. 

The data shows at that from 2001 to 2020, the number of QBs with more than 80 rushing attempts over a season increased by 250%. But that's just the top rushing QBs, the players many might label as "dual-threat". League wide (so taking the top 30 QBs), the average number of rushing attempts by a QB has increase by ~25%. 

Details:

In Vick's rookie season of 2001, there were 2 quarterbacks who topped 80 rushing attempts: Kordell Stewart, and Aaron Brooks. The average number of rushing attempts for a QB (using the top 30 QBs in rushing attempts) was 47.167.

In 2020, there were 7 quarterbacks who had more than 80 rushing attempts: Jackson, Newton, Murray, Allen, Watson, Hill, Wilson. The average number of rushing attempts for a QB (using the top 30 QBs in rushing attempts) was 58.7.

An increase of quarterback rushing is valid, but doesn't change the fact that QBS passing is still way more effective than QBs running.

[Toomers]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Oy, what a stupid response.

But why am I not surprised?

For a ridiculous question on your part. Comparing an every couple of year moment against the importance of accounting for QB mobility on every snap. 
 

   Not surprised either that you have talked your way into a box you can’t logically get out of. Just throw up statements like these to take the attention away from the facts.