The 2022 Quarterback Slide

[Mr. Scot]

I feel like when this year's draft is discussed in the future, one of the big topics is going to be how the quarterbacks outside of Pickett fell so far.

One of the questions of course will be did they really "fall" or was this where they were supposed to be and we just didn't know it?

Here are some perspectives regarding individual quarterbacks, although the discussion could apply to a few of them.

One of the fallers fell to us, of course.

Obviously, there are a number of factors that contribute to something like this. I'm wondering though what people think of either the slide in general or what happened to their particular favorite.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Mr. Scot

[travisura]

I think it probably just boils down to the media evaluations and the respective team evaluations being incongruent. The disparity, for one reason or another, was quite large this year.

It is unfortunate, though, that it seems that this incongruency apparently caused Howell to declare before he needed to. He probably wasn't the only one.

[Tbe]

1. These QBs weren’t that good. Willis especially. 

2. Not a ton of teams were going to take one of these guys so once we passed and the Steelers passed in round #1, everyone just decided to wait.

3. Most needy teams are waiting for next year to get serious at drafting a QB.

4. The fairly new situation where good vet QBs become available via trade or FA means some teams can build a good team and attract a vet rather than take chances in the draft. This lowers the overall demand.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Tbe
Edit

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, Tbe said:

3. Most needy teams are waiting for next year to get serious at drafting a QB.

Actually I think most of the needy teams traded for somebody this year, or last.

A lot of them, us included, also drafted someone this year. They just waited till the later rounds to do it.

[davos]

Something to consider is that teams were either pretty locked in on their in-house QBs or simply not in the spot to take one in round 2.  It ended up being a stand-off to see who took a gamble on one first.  I don't really know who outside of TEN, ATL, and maybe NO and SEA were really gunning for a QB after Pickett went.  Maybe MIN and WAS were wildcards but otherwise, people were probably waiting for us to make some overpriced trade up.

And if teams knew SEA and NO weren't really serious about landing a QB, then there wasn't much competition for any of them.  So not much competition for those guys with Atlanta and Tennessee not even having a pressing need with Mariota and Tannehill.  So, I see why they passed in round 2 given the talent pool and knowing others weren't really going to draft a one.  So, it was a bit of a stand-off, us waiting for the 2nd to go and others waiting for us to trade up.  We smartly held until Ridder & Willis went.  

People may think a 23' third is too much (Will Brinson) but we've got the rest of the draft intact, it wasn't some big multi-pick deal and considering the need, worth the gamble.  

[Tbe]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

Actually I think most of the needy teams traded for somebody this year, or last.

A lot of them, us included, also drafted someone this year. They just waited till the later rounds to do it.

What I mean is, us and the other teams know next year is the year to go all in and grab a QB. It wasn’t important to get one now. We still grabbed one when they fell because it was worth the risk.

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, travisura said:

It is unfortunate, though, that it seems that this incongruency apparently caused Howell to declare before he needed to. He probably wasn't the only one.

Yeah, that part stings.

I'd agree that we as fans do tend to overvalue what media analysts tell us when in reality their evaluations tend not to match up with what NFL teams think.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, Tbe said:

What I mean is, us and the other teams know next year is the year to go all in and grab a QB. It wasn’t important to get one now. We still grabbed one when they fell because it was worth the risk.

Is that what NFL teams really think though or is that just what we fans think they think?

Fitterer has said more than once that Matt Corral is the future. And no, that's not something you "have to say" about a third round pick.

[ForJimmy]

Is this a new dance move?

[Tbe]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

Yeah, that part stings.

I'd agree that we as fans do tend to overvalue what media analysts tell us when in reality their evaluations tend not to match up with what NFL teams think.

I think people also just expect QBs to go high now. 

The NFL did invite these guys to the draft so someone in the league also expected them to go higher.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, Tbe said:

I think people also just expect QBs to go high now. 

The NFL did invite these guys to the draft so someone in the league also expected them to go higher.

Apparently their advisors did too.

[CRA]

11 minutes ago, Tbe said:

1. These QBs weren’t that good. Willis especially. 

2. Not a ton of teams were going to take one of these guys so once we passed and the Steelers passed in round #1, everyone just decided to wait.

3. Most needy teams are waiting for next year to get serious at drafting a QB.

4. The fairly new situation where good vet QBs become available via trade or FA means some teams can build a good team and attract a vet rather than take chances in the draft. This lowers the overall demand.

I actually think this class was more normal than percieved.  I think last year, in terms of prospects, was an extremely good year.  And the fact it was such a good year right next to this one....makes this one look worse than it really was. 

 and adding to it, some of those really great prospects went to total shitshows.  Which kinda distorted what a good rookie QB can do for you. 

Cam in part had so much success as a rookie...is he didn't go to a situation like Jacksonville or Chicago.   He went to a team with 2 pro bowlers in the backfield, pro bowlers all over the OL, a HOF WR, 2 great TEs.  His surroundings allowed him to be impactful as a rookie.    

I think the last class oddly hurt the QBs of this class.  Not tremendously, but I think it made them less attractive.  There are reasons Trevor and Fields didn't wow.   But if great prospects don't change the fortune alone I think it skews the overall feel of things.  Well, if Trevor didn't do much for the Jags how can Howell.  

[Tbe]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

Is that what NFL teams really think though or is that just what we fans think they think?

Fitterer has said more than once that Matt Corral is the future. And no, that's not something you "have to say" about a third round pick.

Given positional value, if you really think the QB of the future is there, you take them in RD 1. You especially don’t pass on trading up to RD 2.

Fitt has talked a lot about taking swings at QB. This is just another swing.

[Mr. Scot]

5 minutes ago, Tbe said:

Given positional value, if you really think the QB of the future is there, you take them in RD 1. You especially don’t pass on trading up to RD 2.

Fitt has talked a lot about taking swings at QB. This is just another swing.

Don't know about other GMs, but Fitterer has talked more than once about not necessarily having to use a high pick to get a great quarterback though.

And heck, you might naturally expect him to have that outlook given where he came from.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Mr. Scot