Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

Evil Hurney

By Evil Hurney,
in Carolina Panthers

 Share

Recommended Posts

mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

I understand what you are saying. I do.

The OP is trying to figure out the probability of drafting comparable players and profit.

Without doing A LOT of leg work the Pro Bowl data is the best surrogate I found for drafted players. If you want to tick things up or down a few percentage points to account for "not actually making a Pro Bowl", go for it. But as I already mentioned WRs make the Pro Bowl far less often than the 44% I already used.

The pro bowl is a dumb way to measure these types of things and in no way validate that we shouldnt have done the deals esp Burns.  I mean for fugs sake Gilmore made the pro bowl last year and he didnt even play half a season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tr3ach Grand Master

Tr3ach

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

This first part of this was addressed. Look at page 2.

Salary or more accurately cap space is an interesting dimension brought up by many. I just don't know how to value it. In a money ball sense you are paying for production (over replacement) not just warm bodies, but what are the chances that level of production even exists in FA. If they did why would anyone trade for a DJ or Burns?

Players that have that much projected productivity don't tend to hit FA. Instead you are paying for band-aids and projects which will likely cost more in the long run (see our recent QB history).

Burns hasn't had a season with double digit sacks yet.  I have no idea and I would have to look into it but I would assume there are pass rushing specialist defensive ends and olb that average >9 sacks a season available as free agents almost every season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

Burns hasn't had a season with double digit sacks yet.  I have no idea and I would have to look into it but I would assume there are pass rushing specialist defensive ends and olb that average >9 sacks a season available as free agents almost every season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/defensive-end//

 

looks like it

Link to comment
Share on other sites
poundaway Grand Master

poundaway

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

Now do the same for the McCaffrey trade. 

Exactly.

DJ Moore is not probowler and tho Burns has earned one, his stats aren't spectacular. 

Its funny how the same people that bitched and complained constantly about Burn's inability to handle the run are the same ones worshiping Fit for turning away 1st round picks for him.

The Fit fluffers are out in force.

"Rhule's GM is the future!  The man is a genius!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • L-TownCat
      Report: Panthers great Luke Kuechly being eyed for big TV job

      By L-TownCat · Posted

      So the last guy who had the job got hired by his former team directly into a role he has no direct experience in?
    • Khyber53
      Report: Panthers great Luke Kuechly being eyed for big TV job

      By Khyber53 · Posted

      Hard to pass up millions for a couple of days work per week for a coaching gig in the NFL that is 60-80 hours each week during the season and a more relaxed 50 hours a week during the off season. Yeah, I'd love to see him as our DC but hard to see him giving up the cushy job there if he gets it. And he's going to be a great commentator for the network.
    • Khyber53
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By Khyber53 · Posted

      Really, I think that is where negotiations come in. If you've got a QB getting you to 10 wins but statistically he's not a great performer, then you say look you can take $22 million or you can try it on the market. Because let's face it, out there, any leadership skills that we're seeing aren't going to be on the table, it's just going to be performance and that lands him in the QB2 market, which is much, much less lucrative (although any of us would love that money).  No one is saying that Bryce will be a $50 million QB, barring something short of a miraculous jump. I'm just saying that if we are winning somehow with him at the helm, then it would be fuging stupid to dive back into the rookie pool all over again. Let's say we do hit the 10 win mark, heck, let's call it 11 and a second round in the playoffs. I think we can all say that would be a really uplifting result and one that should be doable if we have good play. What do we do then? Here's what I would offer if I were Morgan and Tepper. $25 million a year for 3 years, each year with up to $10 million in incentives for touchdowns, wins, playoff depth, being under 10 interceptions, completing a full season, passing yardage milestones, taking less than 15 sacks. Look, Bryce isn't a Ferrari, he isn't a Corvette, or a mid-level BMW. He's probably a new Toyota Sienna that will definitely get you somewhere and bring the whole team along with it, no fuss but not a lot of pizazz.  And really, it's about the destination, not about what drove you there.
×
×
  • Create New...