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Recent QB Draft Classes

DaveThePanther2008

By DaveThePanther2008,
in Carolina Panthers

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Wundrbread33 Grand Master

Wundrbread33

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, rebelrouser said:

Is Fields a fantasy qb or an nfl qb or both? His completion % is 58.9 and his qb rating has him as the 23rd qb. 

Teddy cemented my hatred for focusing on completion percentage without context though. 
 

We saw Cam throw in the 50% range (in his prime) but he was taking a ton of shots downfield and being aggressive. 
 

Simply incorporating a focus on the short game (under Norv Turner), had him in the high 60’s%.

 

I’d have to watch more of Fields to see what that 59% means. 

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Aussie Tank Grand Master

Aussie Tank

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

You don't acquire a QB with hindsight or going off their ranking coming out of college based on traditional scouting methods. This has proven itself more wrong than right time and time again.

Over the past 23 seasons there have been 8 1st round QBs and 6 non-1st round QBs who have won the SB. There is a consistent near 50/50 split when it comes to historical top franchise QBs and successful franchise QBs among all NFL teams.

The draft capital spent on these 1st round SB winning QBs totals 14,790 points. Non-1st round SB winning QBs total 967 points. Only 3 of these QBs were #1 picks and 2 of them were named Manning. Investing in a 1st round QB is costly and it does not give a team an advantage of winning the SB.

Approaching the acquisition of a franchise QB is much like investing in companies. You want to hit more than you miss, and learning on what not to invest in is more important than investing in the QBs everyone is talking about. You will pass on some good QBs, but you will not collect the failed QBs.

I've been working with data analytics since I was a kid and have since made a career out of it. I loved using data analytics on players in the NFL.

There is more to it, but if you follow these simple rules, you will hit on many QBs capable of taking your team to the SB. QBs must have GWD success in college (this will not get better in the NFL), QB has a hero mentality regarding their offense (think firefighter), demonstrates champion leadership ability in HS and college, QB has a sigma personality, and QB has professional sports pedigree. If a QB hits on all 5, you draft them #1 since they are a pedigree franchise QB. If they hit on 4 of 5, they are rare and get drafted if they fall to the late first round. If they hit on 3 of 5, they are a hidden gem that can be developed quickly on the NFL level - draft them in the 3rd to 5th round. If they hit on 2 of 5, they are a top franchise back up QB. If they hit on GWD only, they are a potential project and you sign them as a UDFA to run the scout team and prove they are worth a 3rd QB spot on the roster.

The rest of the standard measurables can be easily scouted and coached.

You will also need to be patient with this because it means you will have to eliminate an entire pool of QB draftees for a given year. I have never had more than 4 QBs qualify in a single draft class. Most draft classes will not produce a single QB based on this criteria. You will go multiple drafts without a QB, and will need to spot the players who other teams have missed to fill out your teams roster. Only 3 draft classes have produced multiple QBs worth drafting based on the positions they were drafted since 1995.

Since 1995, the only drafts a QB would be added to the roster from the draft pool using this criteria would be 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2022.

Other strategy's will work too. This one I use will allow you to hit on 4 of every 5 QBs your team will add from a given draft class.

The SB wins might be close to even but the player pool is not. Throw up a number of total QBs taken between 1st round and Non 1st 

Edited by Aussie Tank
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