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A Quantitative Analysis of the Panthers-Bears Trade

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

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SmokinwithWilly Grand Master

SmokinwithWilly

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Icege said:

Mathematically, the trade is incredibly fair. The onus now is on the scouting process to put the team in the best position to hit on #1.  Landing a franchise QB alone makes the picks worth it. If they can also hit on finding a replacement for DJ then the team only improved from this.

This team is a playoff team with Bryce Young or CJ Stroud and the current coaching staff. They were almost there with Wilks and the shell of Rhule's regime and Sam Darnold. A postseason for the rookie QB makes that future 1st a non-issue imo, as well as the future 2nd should they ball out that year as well.

Going to be interesting seeing a team eager to win now. It's been awhile... incoming back-to-back winning seasons finally?

They really weren't close to a playoff caliber team. Getting in with a losing record and actually being able to be competitive are very different. 

That said, with the right QB I think we are much closer. Maybe by the end of year 2 we have the ability to make a serious run. But man I think we're close. 

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Evil Hurney Mentor

Evil Hurney

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Posted (edited)

Nice post.

I also feel like the Panthers got off fairly cheaply in this deal. Quick math (assuming all picks are this year) suggests that the Bears valued DJ Moore as a mid 1st round pick. There were many over the past months that would have happily traded DJ for a mid 1st.

Bears & Carolina Trade (treating future picks as end of the round picks)

image.png.8a975bf95024800ac7a426cd69cc78f0.png 

For context I assume Chicago got similar excess value as MIA got from SF in 2021. Calculation assuming future picks are treated as end or round picks this year below.

image.png.f3261243a99c4c5bf861065a42b32f37.png

EDIT: I think it's also relevant that AJ Brown without a new contract was traded last season for pick 18 and pick 101 ... pretty close to the value the Panthers just got for DJ Moore.

Edited by Evil Hurney
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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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1 hour ago, FugginPoo said:

Spoiler alert:  if Stroud/Young turn into elite QB for next 10 years then panthers won by miles and it’s not even close.  However if they bust this was an awful trade and the Bears won it big.  The end.

Well, if the Panthers' pick goes on to outperform Fields, then the Bears will regret this move for decades--they had the option of trading Fields, and chose not to do so.  On top of that, the Bears could select a few busts with their windfall of picks....😰

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    • strato
      Why does Bryce get the blame?

      By strato · Posted

      To start with, you wouldn’t want to count up that value chart. You would see quickly where that is headed. But you basically did a quantity comparison, while ignoring quality.  I am looking at 2023 as the start, because it became all about Bryce.  2023 you have 4 picks plus DJ Moore for offense vs 2 (80 and 145) for defense.  2024 you got the 1st overall, the 32, the 46 and the 101 for offense vs 72, 157, 200 and 240 for defense. Leave the FA IOL out of it. Which was a crazy big  investment. But it wasn’t draft.  Anyway, that is basically 4 top 100 picks for offense and 4 picks for defense in 2024. Except they were 2 first rounders, the second rounder, and the 4th was really high at 101. Vs 72 and day three stuff. Please….  Second quoted/bolded… See you think we hate Bryce. That isn’t it at all. It is nice easy way to characterize us and discredit our talking points though.   Me, I do mostly hate watching him play. But I don’t hate the person. I hate the hell out of the stanning.  It started with the very first question I asked about his footwork, arm strength, and size. Height being the principle objection. I never even got to the durability factor. There was plenty without factoring that in.  But there was rabid opposition to even asking the question of what a couple of small fractions of a second extra closing time would do for the defenders.  What the extra time it takes to flip the hips would do vs a pass rush or on the other end after the ball is in the air. Split second more for recognition where it is going for the DBs.  The tippy toe backpedal.  That poo was a mess and it has always been mess but no Bryce fan wanted to hear it. “Go get another team to root for”. “It worked in the SEC it will be fine in the NFL you don’t know football you are just a hater”.  It got worse when the real games started. It has never stopped. It is nice that many people have left that train so there is less abuse but it hasn’t stopped.  So whatever… 
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      Why does Bryce get the blame?

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      The draft capital since since 2023 has in no way been pretty even.  Especially when you zero in on day 1 and day 2 draft picks.  Draft capital has vastly gone toward the O over D.  
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