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NFL model analytics player compares

Lame Duck

By Lame Duck,
in Carolina Panthers

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Hoenheim Grand Master

Hoenheim

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That would be fuging horrible yeesh 

46 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Focusing so heavily on recency is going to really limit your potential comps. I do think Brees and Wilson are the best comps for Young. Brees-like passer, though Brees had an advantage both in a strength and pure accuracy IMO. Wilson-like in mobility.

Bryce doesn't run like Russel did some of yall are at the opposite end of this comparison because you all reference Brees and Wilson indefinitely and I don't see it . 

Bridgewater checked down a ton and was seen as very accurate 😅  Tuas been good recently besides the injuries but to be fair he was injured way more often in college. But they're both small qbs coming out same School. Mac Jones also came out of there wasn't too athletic and known for his accuracy 

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Lame Duck Grand Master

Lame Duck

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Just now, rayzor said:

We only need one to work and we've got our eyes set on the right one.

 

No idea if he’s a right one until he plays in NFL.  There were many right ones going #1 overall but only handful paned out and media’s job is to create excitement and sell you that they are the best thing since slice of bread which most times is not true but people eat it up.

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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2 minutes ago, Lame Duck said:

No idea if he’s a right one until he plays in NFL.  There were many right ones going #1 overall but only handful paned out and media’s job is to create excitement and sell you that they are the best thing since slice of bread which most times is not true but people eat it up.

If it wasn't this coaching staff making the call, I'd probably be a bit skeptical. I just feel like these guys know their poo.

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Hoenheim Grand Master

Hoenheim

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6 minutes ago, Lame Duck said:

No idea if he’s a right one until he plays in NFL.  There were many right ones going #1 overall but only handful paned out and media’s job is to create excitement and sell you that they are the best thing since slice of bread which most times is not true but people eat it up.

Fan base has gone from like 80/20 ,stroud young to 70/30 young stroud  due to all the reports and media coverage of Bryce it's been shifting gradually every week since the first Bryce rumors started 

I think a lot of fans have read the tea leaves and are just trying to convince themselves Bryce is the best option 

If you do a post draft poll it'll be like 95 percent we made the best pick, we won't know that for a good long while.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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9 minutes ago, Lame Duck said:

No idea if he’s a right one until he plays in NFL.  There were many right ones going #1 overall but only handful paned out and media’s job is to create excitement and sell you that they are the best thing since slice of bread which most times is not true but people eat it up.

Pretty much. I said long ago that ultimately I'll be fine with Young, Stroud, or Richardson. I can definitely understand the arguments for and against all three. So whoever our staff and brass likes best, let's go.

 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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5 minutes ago, Hoenheim said:

Fan base has gone from like 80/20 ,stroud young to 70/30 young stroud  due to all the reports and media coverage of Bryce it's been shifting gradually every week since the first Bryce rumors started 

All by design IMO. With them throwing a big draft night party at BOA they don't want this to be a shocker. They want a celebration, not a bunch of folks disappointed by the pick. The NFL doesn't want them outright saying who it's gonna be to keep up the suspense for draft night but the Panthers don't wasn't a bunch of folks in the stands expecting the pick to be one guy and then it's someone else. 

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Ocpanthertew714 Veteran

Ocpanthertew714

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1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Pretty much. I said long ago that ultimately I'll be fine with Young, Stroud, or Richardson. I can definitely understand the arguments for and against all three. So whoever our staff and brass likes best, let's go.

 

my sentiments exactly. However, (hypothetical here) if the pick is AR would you be comfortable starting him day one.  I would think we have an excellent bridge qb in Dalton to allow for AR's development.  Although, I am very aware that a #1 overall pick has to play day one.

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Hoenheim Grand Master

Hoenheim

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3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

All by design IMO. With them throwing a big draft night party at BOA they don't want this to be a shocker. They want a celebration, not a bunch of folks disappointed by the pick. The NFL doesn't want them outright saying who it's gonna be to keep up the suspense for draft night but the Panthers don't wasn't a bunch of folks in the stands expecting the pick to be one guy and then it's someone else. 

Something I had not considered until you mentioned it 🤔 

I was wondering why all this stuff has been leaking out over the last 2 weeks it's like beating a dead horse from several different reporters and literally everyone interviewing Bryce last week. 

It's like they're trying to justify the pick to the fans before it's actually made

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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6 minutes ago, Ocpanthertew714 said:

my sentiments exactly. However, (hypothetical here) if the pick is AR would you be comfortable starting him day one.  I would think we have an excellent bridge qb in Dalton to allow for AR's development.  Although, I am very aware that a #1 overall pick has to play day one.

When we made the trade I honestly think we didn't know exactly who we were gonna pick we had just done enough homework on the QB class to feel confident that we were going to be comfortable going to #1 to get one of them. IMO, Dalton was brought in primarily to be a vet mentor and a bridge starter if need be. I believe Richardson was a lot more in the mix than a lot of folks think. Very possibly more so than Stroud.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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6 minutes ago, Hoenheim said:

Something I had not considered until you mentioned it 🤔 

I was wondering why all this stuff has been leaking out over the last 2 weeks it's like beating a dead horse from several different reporters and literally everyone interviewing Bryce last week. 

It's like they're trying to justify the pick to the fans before it's actually made

Honestly, I think so. We don't want a situation like when the Eagles drafted McNabb. That's just a bad look for the franchise.

You don't wanna throw a draft party in your stadium to welcome in your new franchise QB and then have that happen.

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FieldsOverTheField Explorer

FieldsOverTheField

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I don't see this point being made here:

Bears would rather keep Fields who went #11 just last season over any QB this class

Red flags all over .. this is going to be one of those poor QB drafts but 'we just had to get our guy this year damnit!'

And what are the odds the Panthers hit on two consecutive first overall QB's .. not good, many teams can't even hit on one number overall QB and were going to hit on two consecutive?

Tepper is Snyder's replacement

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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12 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Pretty much all these attempts to use stats and analytics and models to make predictions are awful. Might work in the business or finance world. Football?  Not so much. 

Yeah, it's just forced comps for clicks. I mean think back to 2011. Who in the world are you comparing Cam Newton to? There just wasn't a comp. 

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    • TheSpecialJuan
      Explicating the Panthers' Defensiveness

      By TheSpecialJuan · Posted

      I can't wait to go through this analysis 
    • SmokinwithWilly
      Panthers Sign QB Will Grier

      By SmokinwithWilly · Posted

      What's more likely? An entire competant NFL front office (as many here suggest Morgan runs) has watched Bryce struggle week in and week out to perform at the bare minimum of NFL QBs for 3 years and has decided that's the future of this organization, OR our owner who has proven repeatedly he can't keep his nose out of team decision making has declared Bryce is our QB until he decides otherwise, especially given he's the one that drafted him in the first place? 
    • MHS831
      Explicating the Panthers' Defensiveness

      By MHS831 · Posted

      It is time to take a look at the defense.  Without further ado do.... Edge (OLB):  I think we overpaid for Jaelan Phillips, but he is constant pressure with 73 pressures in 2025, ranking 9th in the NFL.  In all, he was the 20th (of 111) rated pass rushing edge in 2025 according to PFF, putting him in the top 20% in the nfl.  With a pair of solid ILBs beside him and if we can get Wharton going, I think the sum of the parts will make him better than he was in Philly.  Furthermore, with second-year pro Princely Umanmielen behind him, I expect him to grow with the tutoring and competition. On the other side, the duo of Nick Scourton and Patrick Jones II is strong, in my view.  Scourton generated 34 total pressures as a pass rusher. That total included 8 sacks, 23 hurries, 3 hits. Against the run, he recorded 28 solo tackles. For a rookie, second round, edge, that is great.  He also forced 1 fumble on the season. Jones was decent in 2025 in just 131 snaps, but he is solid veteran depth.   We seem to lack the elite pass rusher, but this rotational unit will be a big upgrade over last season.  Expect Scourton and Princely to show improvement. While it is unlikely that we add more to edge this draft, you can never have too many pass rushers (well, you can--two sophomores and two veterans is a good mix). Would the Panthers take an edge if one was sitting there? Absolutely. Defensive End:  Derrick Brown is a stud.  I did not notice how dominant he became as a pass rusher.  His PFF pass-rush grade of 72.0 ranked 23rd among 134 qualified interior defensive linemans. His run-defense grade of 66.3 ranked 22nd at the position. He generated 35 total pressures as a pass rusher. That total included 6 sacks, 23 hurries, 6 hits. On the other side:  What the hell?  Tershawn Wharton earned a 40.8 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 127th among 134 qualified interior defensive linemans. His PFF pass-rush grade of 57.0 ranked 95th among 134 qualified interior defensive linemen. His run-defense grade of 34.8 ranked 125th at the position. However, Wharton needs to be situational and we really need a few DEs who can plug and pressure.  LaBryan Ray is an interior defensive lineman for the Carolina Panthers who earned a 45.7 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season.  You cannot tell me that we are not going to add a DE.  In my view, this is a HUGE need that we have not adequately addressed.  There were only 3 DEs in the NFL who played more snaps that Derrick Brown.  We have to give him more blows during the game.  So After Brown, we have 2 other players who need to improve a lot to reach mediocre. Nose Tackle:  Of course, a NT might move out some to help stuff the run at DE opposite Brown, and stats do not always reflect on a NT's actual value.  Bobby Brown III earned a 54.1 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 80th among 134 qualified interior defensive linemen.  His PFF pass-rush grade of 51.1 ranked 126th among 134 qualified interior defensive linemans. His run-defense grade of 57.8 ranked 51st at the position.   Behind him, Cam'Ron Jackson is an  earned a 45.5 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season.   The defensive line is weak, based on 2025 performance rankings in PFF.  After DBrown, they pretty much suck.  These are the guys our ILBs will be counting on. Inside Linebacker:  Devin Lloyd earned a 89.1 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 3rd among 88 qualified linebackers. His PFF coverage grade of 81.1 ranked 3rd among 88 qualified linebackers. His run-defense grade of 83.2 ranked 11th at the position. 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He allowed a 72.9 passer rating when targeted by opposing quarterbacks --SOLID!!  Our second-best CB, Jaycee Horn, was in the pro bowl.  He earned a 57.8 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 76th among 114 qualified corner.backs. His PFF coverage grade of 61.6 ranked 61st among 114 qualified cornerbacks. His run-defense grade of 50.5 ranked 87th at the position.  He recorded 5 interceptions on the season.  Our CBs had NINE interceptions in 2025.  It is doubtful they duplicate that figure, but Jackson was our best CB.   We are thin at CB, but the two we put out there are solid.  Nickel, at this time, is "meh," but both are developing and should improve.  A great draft for Nickel.  The Panthers will add a CB somehow. Safety:  For now, Trevon Moehrig is as advertised--above average vs. the run, below average in coverage, making him average. He earned a 64.3 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 50th among 98 qualified safeties. His PFF coverage grade of 55.3 ranked 64th among 98 qualified safeties. His run-defense grade of 73.5 ranked 37th at the position.  Lathan Ransom got some valuable experience in 2025, getting in on 330 plays or so.  He earned a 62.9 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 56th among 98 qualified safeties.  (Average, not bad for a day 3 rookie) His PFF coverage grade of 55.8 ranked 63rd among 98 qualified safeties. His run-defense grade of 85.1 ranked 4th at the position.  A pure strong safety, if you ask me.  Nick Scott  earned a 67.8 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 36th among 98 qualified safeties. His PFF coverage grade of 67.3 ranked 31st among 98 qualified safeties. His run-defense grade of 69.3 ranked 56th at the position.  Expect a draft pick at FS.  Demani Richardson is a safety for the Carolina Panthers who earned a 71.5 overall PFF defensive grade n 29 plays.  Nothing to see here.  Isaiah Simmons is probably more special teams than defensive player.   Overall:  We are thin on defense.  No real depth at CB, S, and DE/NT.  However, we have 5 starters who are pro bowl level players (D. 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