Lions week news

[ForJimmy]

7 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

again, if you disagree you can put your money down on it either way,  Ive said since the draft this is a 7, 8 win team.  Vegas agrees, if you are way more optimistic then you can win some money but they have been dead balls accurate in regards to us in the past 3 years or so.   Vegas has a method and I wouldnt bet against it

I never said we would be better or worse. Simply it’s too early to know. That line has a huge chance of moving as the season progresses whether it goes up or down is anyone’s guess. 

[ClawOn]

18 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

vegas doesnt guess, its based on facts and metrics, they have been pretty spot on in regards to us for the past 3ish years.   So I keep telling all the guys that think we are winning the south put your money where your mouth is, its right there, 7 wins

Looks like it's my time to shine

 

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, ClawOn said:

Looks like it's my time to shine

 

my man

[TheCasillas]

3 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

vegas doesnt guess, its based on facts and metrics, they have been pretty spot on in regards to us for the past 3ish years.   So I keep telling all the guys that think we are winning the south put your money where your mouth is, its right there, 7 wins

Lol. I posted a screenshot  in a another thread a few days… go ahead and take a look at least years preseason Vegas over/unders 

 

there was a lot of money made last year on a handful of teams destroying the over. Preseason is the best gaming season for non-house takers 

Edited August 25, 2023 by TheCasillas

[Carl Spackler]

7 hours ago, Gerry Green said:

 

Your list is just your opinion, and a bad one at that. Don't try acting like it means anything.

 

 

Sarcasm is lost on some.

Saying the starting QB can get injured in a meaningless preseason game is not an opinion.

[Carl Spackler]

4 hours ago, WUnderhill said:

NONE of the preseason games are meaningful. By your reasoning he shouldn’t play in ANY preseason game. You have failed to provide any reason why this last one should be treated differently than the others.

Here’s a dose of reality:

- Under pressure 28.6% of dropbacks Week 1

- Under pressure 43% of dropbacks Week 2

The offensive line can’t protect him. But yeah, doing the same thing again in another game that doesn’t count is super smart. 

[mrcompletely11]

8 hours ago, TheCasillas said:

Lol. I posted a screenshot  in a another thread a few days… go ahead and take a look at least years preseason Vegas over/unders 

 

there was a lot of money made last year on a handful of teams destroying the over. Preseason is the best gaming season for non-house takers 

They have been pretty damn on the nose with us in recent years.  We have exceeded expectations 2x in 6 years by 2 and .5 games.  Vegas knows what they are doing.  Could we make a crazy jump, sure anything is possible.   Once I get to work I might start importing the past vegas win totals vs actual wins and I can run the numbers of how many teams exceeded their win totals and what the avg may look like so we can get a better idea.  But thinking this team can win double digits may be a foolish proposition. 

 

Eyeballing this from last year going into week 18 I dont see a team that has beat the expectation by 3

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/nfl-win-totals-tracking-entering-this-week-sgc/

 

from the 21-22 season just 2 teams beat expectations by 3.  Bengals Cowboys.  https://www.wynnbet.com/articles/win-total-results-for-all-32-nfl-teams-in-2021/

 

It can be done but the odds are long.  As I have said many times now the 24 season is when I think we make a move.  Bryce gets experience, we load up the defense and make the leap

 

year  vegas  wins

17       9         11

18        9         7

19       8          5

20       5.5       5

21        5.5.      5

22        6.5       7

23     7.5

[TheCasillas]

37 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

They have been pretty damn on the nose with us in recent years.  We have exceeded expectations 2x in 6 years by 2 and .5 games.  Vegas knows what they are doing.  Could we make a crazy jump, sure anything is possible.   Once I get to work I might start importing the past vegas win totals vs actual wins and I can run the numbers of how many teams exceeded their win totals and what the avg may look like so we can get a better idea.  But thinking this team can win double digits may be a foolish proposition. 

 

Eyeballing this from last year going into week 18 I dont see a team that has beat the expectation by 3

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/nfl-win-totals-tracking-entering-this-week-sgc/

 

from the 21-22 season just 2 teams beat expectations by 3.  Bengals Cowboys.  https://www.wynnbet.com/articles/win-total-results-for-all-32-nfl-teams-in-2021/

 

It can be done but the odds are long.  As I have said many times now the 24 season is when I think we make a move.  Bryce gets experience, we load up the defense and make the leap

 

year  vegas  wins

17       9         11

18        9         7

19       8          5

20       5.5       5

21        5.5.      5

22        6.5       7

23     7.5

Your moving the goal posts … earlier in the thread you said Vegas was dead on and use metrics and data to predict this stuff. Now you are saying now many teams have beat Vegas by “3” …..

 

it’s gambling, all that matters is that you are either over or under. It’s not really much more complex than that…..

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, TheCasillas said:

Your moving the goal posts … earlier in the thread you said Vegas was dead on and use metrics and data to predict this stuff. Now you are saying now many teams have beat Vegas by “3” …..

 

it’s gambling, all that matters is that you are either over or under. It’s not really much more complex than that…..

I was using the 3 more wins then expected in regards to the playoffs or winning the division talk.  My bad if I wasnt clear but I think to win the division or make the wild card we more then likely have to win double digit games.  Sorry if that wasnt clear.  But the overall premise was that more times then not vegas is pretty fuging close about how our season plays out and from the initial scan of other teams in other years its pretty close as well.  Like I said once things slow down I will try and import expectations vs wins and see what the averages are and some of the variances to get a better understanding.

[ForJimmy]

3 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

Your moving the goal posts … earlier in the thread you said Vegas was dead on and use metrics and data to predict this stuff. Now you are saying now many teams have beat Vegas by “3” …..

 

it’s gambling, all that matters is that you are either over or under. It’s not really much more complex than that…..

3 games is pretty big especially when they aren’t picking 17-0 or 0-17. It can be a 6 game swing for us between 10.5 and 4.5 wins.

[ForJimmy]

We just had this Vegas talk with our pick. Stroud was favored by a lot then Young then Levis randomly one day. As long as people are betting against each other and they are making money, they could care less how accurate it is.

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

3 games is pretty big especially when they aren’t picking 17-0 or 0-17. It can be a 6 game swing for us between 10.5 and 4.5 wins.

Right.  Beating the expectations by 3+ is pretty rare.  Even if we beat it by 2 (which it appears the more likely scenario) I still dont think 9 wins gets us either the wild card or division simply based on history.  But I will be clear 9 wins in 2023 would be fuging awesome and would set us up perfectly for 24.  That said I think we win 7 maybe 8 games at most.

[ForJimmy]

8 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Right.  Beating the expectations by 3+ is pretty rare.  Even if we beat it by 2 (which it appears the more likely scenario) I still dont think 9 wins gets us either the wild card or division simply based on history.  But I will be clear 9 wins in 2023 would be fuging awesome and would set us up perfectly for 24.  That said I think we win 7 maybe 8 games at most.

That’s understandable. 7-8 is probably the safest prediction given all the changes, but honestly everything is still a big question mark right now. Young has had a handful of snaps and we have barely played any starters/schemes so far. 

[TheCasillas]

51 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I was using the 3 more wins then expected in regards to the playoffs or winning the division talk.  My bad if I wasnt clear but I think to win the division or make the wild card we more then likely have to win double digit games.  Sorry if that wasnt clear.  But the overall premise was that more times then not vegas is pretty fuging close about how our season plays out and from the initial scan of other teams in other years its pretty close as well.  Like I said once things slow down I will try and import expectations vs wins and see what the averages are and some of the variances to get a better understanding.

pretty simple stuff right here:

Opening season spreads (bets made before season starts): 

As you can see, it is all over the place, and there is no tight pattern or tight trend line showing that Vegas is right.

 

Now compare it to the final season spreads (betting made midseason-end season):

Trend line is evident and house wins. 

 

 

Early season gambling is the best point in the season for people to gamble, Vegas doesnt have the data yet to support their spreads.... That's why taking bets on the whether a team beats their record prediction, wins their division, wins a playoff game, goes to the super bowl, and wins the super bowl are the ones we hear big stories about toward the end of the season. It's the one chance we as gamblers have an even playing field with Vegas.

Edited August 25, 2023 by TheCasillas