QB EPA Lost due to WR Drops

[Varking]

[Wundrbread33]

The older I get, the more I hate statistics. I just don’t see how any of this stuff matters at all. 
 

Just lead your team down the field and score points. 
 

“Hypothetical this, perhaps that”: it just doesn’t matter. 
 

You can find stats defending anything, you can find stats condemning anything. 
 

I’ll stick to the basics, like 1 god damn win. Or how our offense is 99.7% a pain in my ass to watch. 

[LinvilleGorge]

I thought the Commanders' receivers were dropping a lot of balls but everyone keeps saying how great their receivers are so I figured I was just being biased in my interpretation. And I'm sure these stats are just the super obvious absolutely blatant drops and not the "he probably should've caught that" variety of "drops".

[Wundrbread33]

9 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I thought the Commanders' receivers were dropping a lot of balls but everyone keeps saying how great their receivers are so I figured I was just being biased in my interpretation. And I'm sure these stats are just the super obvious absolutely blatant drops and not the "he probably should've caught that" variety of "drops".

Yeah that’s the problem. There are way too many variables to rely on any one statistic. 
 

It’s a never ending abyss of “context.”

[frankw]

So Sam Howell isn't working with super dependable elite WR's after all? And he's been sacked about 50 times?

Edited November 22, 2023 by frankw

[ForJimmy]

Once again we will have people who will swear by these stats because it sides with their views, and people who question it because it doesn't.  

If you find yourself questioning the Bryce throws to open WRs chart, and not this one or like the Bryce to open WRs chart and questioning this one you might have an agenda.  Both will have some truths to them, and both will have issues.  

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, frankw said:

So Sam Howell isn't working with super dependable elite WR's after all? And he's been sacked about 50 times?

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-sam-howell-washington-commanders-sacks

There are some "stats" on how Howell is creating a lot of his own sacks.  It's from back in October so maybe some things have changed.  He is young and still learning, but people are painting a picture like he is a one man show over there in Washington. 

Sacks are a quarterback stat as much as they are an offensive line stat, and Howell is contributing to that number in a major way. Washington’s offensive line isn’t an elite unit, but it isn't the current problem. Outside of Week 6, Washington has started the same five offensive linemen each week, and not one has a pass-blocking grade lower than 60.0.

Here’s the breakdown of who has been responsible for the 34 sacks:

Sam Howell	15
Offensive Line	12
Other	7

Not only is Howell creating his own pressure, but he’s also turning offensive line-allowed pressure into sacks at an unsustainable rate. He currently leads the league with a 33.7% pressure-to-sack percentage. The league-high rate last season was 30.8%.

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, frankw said:

So Sam Howell isn't working with super dependable elite WR's after all? And he's been sacked about 50 times?

McLaurin is legit. The rest of the crew is pretty average. 

[frankw]

15 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-sam-howell-washington-commanders-sacks

There are some "stats" on how Howell is creating a lot of his own sacks.  It's from back in October so maybe some things have changed.  He is young and still learning, but people are painting a picture like he is a one man show over there in Washington. 

Sacks are a quarterback stat as much as they are an offensive line stat, and Howell is contributing to that number in a major way. Washington’s offensive line isn’t an elite unit, but it isn't the current problem. Outside of Week 6, Washington has started the same five offensive linemen each week, and not one has a pass-blocking grade lower than 60.0.

Here’s the breakdown of who has been responsible for the 34 sacks:

Sam Howell	15
Offensive Line	12
Other	7

Not only is Howell creating his own pressure, but he’s also turning offensive line-allowed pressure into sacks at an unsustainable rate. He currently leads the league with a 33.7% pressure-to-sack percentage. The league-high rate last season was 30.8%.

I'm not arguing every single sack is the fault of the oline but that's a high number of sacks. Only the Giants have more.

But if we find ourselves looking to blame other QB's for their sacks while shielding Young for the ineptitude of this offense despite the circumstances it looks inconsistent at best.

[ForJimmy]

12 minutes ago, frankw said:

I'm not arguing every single sack is the fault of the oline but that's a high number of sacks. Only the Giants have more.

But if we find ourselves looking to blame other QB's for their sacks while shielding Young for the ineptitude of this offense despite the circumstances it looks inconsistent at best.

I've seen Young run into sacks many times.  Just saying PFF at the time said the Commanders didn't have an OL below 60 in pass rating.  We were working with some 20s and a 19 in some games including last.  But even with all of that Howell is playing at a great level.  Young is getting sacked and struggling.  There is the difference.  

[shaq]

Notice how the trend of offenses with a legit deep passing game is higher on the list? And a team like ours that never throws deep is at the bottom? It’s easy to catch a screen or a 5 yard out route. Not so easy to catch a 45 yard bomb from Patrick Mahomes even if it’s an accurate ball.

[BY9Franchise]

Sam Howell is the best QB from that draft..... still mad we picked that loser matt corral....  @LinvilleGorge

 

All the people jock riding Willis saying Howell was trash.

[Mage]

22 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I thought the Commanders' receivers were dropping a lot of balls but everyone keeps saying how great their receivers are so I figured I was just being biased in my interpretation. 

I haven't watched many Commanders games, but it is worth mentioning that Sam Howell leads the NFL in pass attempts by a crazy amount (442 pass attempts; next closest is Josh Allen at 382).  That's like a 2 (sometimes 3) game difference. So it would make sense he would be high up there for drops by receivers.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Mage

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Mage said:

I haven't watched many Commanders games, but it is worth mentioning that Sam Howell leads the NFL in pass attempts by a crazy amount (442 pass attempts; next closest is Josh Allen at 382).  That's like a 2 (sometimes 3) game difference. So it would make sense he would be high up there for drops by receivers.

Bieniemy is absolutely part of their problem. He absolutely and completely abandons the run for huge chunks of every game. The guy has a first year starter at QB and an OL that struggles mightily in pass protection and he's putting the entire offense on the QB. It's a pretty wild concept. 

But the biggest problem with that team is Ron and Del Rio's D is completely shitting the bed. They're terrible. And they were terrible before they traded both of their starting DEs.