Will We Pick #1 AGAIN Next Year?

[Catalyst]

This isn't as crazy as it sounds; I've done some math and such here and we're a lot closer to getting Luck next year than you might think. Now, under normal circumstances it is tough to imagine a team picking 1st two years in a row, BUT with a lockout likely on the way - at least enough to prevent the new coaching staffs from meeting with their new teams and holding OTA's and maybe even training camp on time, those teams breaking in new coaches will be at a distinct disadvantage going into the season.

Add to that the fact that:

1) We're essentially guaranteed six losses in the division...

2) Play the NFC North, which should be tough next year, and...

3) Will still have an iffy QB situation...

And it's not impossible to see us competing for that 1st pick next year. I've gone over the opponents and see 3 wins next year if things hold and frankly that's giving us a flyer on one game. The Packers, Bears, & Vikings will be tough and the Lions are getting better all the time.

Now, out of the other "contenders" for the 1st pick we have:

Bills

Dolphins

Browns

Broncos

Raiders

Redskins

Cardinals

49ers

Seahawks

Panthers

And one-by-one let's check how viable a 'threat' they are to us...

Bills: A contender, no way around it

Dolphins: Likely not quite bad enough to qualify for 1st pick, but close

Browns: Another contender

Broncos: I think The Golden Calf of Bristol will do enough to keep them out of the top-5

Raiders: New HC will likely be Hue Jackson, so nothing will really change

Redskins: A contender if they don't address their QB situation

Cardinals: Will almost certainly draft a QB in the 1st this year

49ers: Strongest contender, but might also take a QB this year

Seahawks: Probably not THAT bad

So out of that list we've got the Bills, Browns, Cardinals, & 49ers as the most likely competition for the pick. Arizona will take a QB this year and while Luck is great, they wouldn't take two QB's back to back that early. The Browns have Colt McCoy, but would probably take Luck. I'm still not sure they're THAT bad, though, particularly if they hire Fox, who will likely get at least 6 wins out of them.

That leaves the 49ers, who may only go after a stop-gap this year, but is also a major player to take a QB early this year. They also play in the NFC West, which will give them a few wins we won't have.

And if a team like Arizona (or the 49ers) take a QB this year and end up with the 1st pick they would surely trade the pick and I have a feeling that with a rookie wage scale in effect, Jerry would jump at the chance.

So, I mean, it's FAR from impossible that we end up getting Luck anyway. This whole situation may just be for the best. Sure, it may be crazy talk and probably sounds that way right now, but we're in a very unique situation with the labor uncertainty that stands to affect us more than 90% of the other teams in the league.

Just imagine Luck throwing to A.J. Green with Gettis on the other side and LaFell in the slot and Stewart in the backfield :eek:

[Herb]

Part of me hopes we get luck next year, but a larger part of me wants nothing to do with being a bottom dweller. If that happens then obviously whatever our coaching staff is will be a complete and utter failure and we would all be wanting a new regime yet again. We will turn into the Lions/Browns in no time.

[Catalyst]

I'm not sure going 3-13 would mean the new coaching staff is a failure. The lack of preparation is going to really hurt the new coaches and I think they'll be given flyers on 2011 as a result from ownership. No coach can do THAT much with so little time to get to know his team and for the players to familiarize themselves with the new schemes.

The CBA situation is the cause of all this and may end up playing to our benefit.

[Cavscout]

Lockout!!

Wooot!

[BBQ&Beer]

I'm not sure going 3-13 would mean the new coaching staff is a failure. The lack of preparation is going to really hurt the new coaches and I think they'll be given flyers on 2011 as a result from ownership. No coach can do THAT much with so little time to get to know his team and for the players to familiarize themselves with the new schemes.

The CBA situation is the cause of all this and may end up playing to our benefit.

That's possible, but I really don't see it happening.

We had some big injuries this year that (hopefully) won't be there next year.

We have a lot of players who know what its like to win & they are going nuts next year. (not saying we'll be in the playoffs but I doubt we'll be picking in the top 5.

The meltdown that occurred yesterday about Luck would look like winning the NFCS compared to back to back worst in the NFL seasons. Say what you want about JR, he knows this.

The team is way... way... waaaaaaaay better than they played this year. Be it Green, Newton, whomever, is going to help.

If we pick in the top 10 I'll be surprised.

[Catalyst]

Under normal circumstances I would agree. We are way better than 2-14, but what we're not is better than any of our division rivals - not even close - and IF the new coach doesn't have the ability to meet with the team until September then that's going to really screw our season up and any other team breaking in a new HC outside of maybe Oakland since they're probably going to promote Hue Jackson and keep their team chemistry for the most part.

[TheSaint]

Loser Mentality much?

[Catalyst]

No, just a realist mentality.

[top dawg]

Whatever happens, happens...but I am not going to sit here and prognosticate before I even know who our coaches are going to be, and what new additions will become a part of our roster. That's the reality. Anything else is delusional. Unlike what the ignorant talking heads are spewing, there is still a lot of talent and potential on this team, and I am not quite ready to stick a fork in the next season, whenever it starts.

[MWCarolina]

Part of me hopes we get luck next year, but a larger part of me wants nothing to do with being a bottom dweller. If that happens then obviously whatever our coaching staff is will be a complete and utter failure and we would all be wanting a new regime yet again. We will turn into the Lions/Browns in no time.

honestly, if some people get what they want, the panthers could be picking number one again and it wouldnt surprise me if we picked number one overall with Clausen (who obviously wouldnt improve if they lost all those games) at QB with Green as his reciever or with a defensive player or with Cam Newton (who would play like i fear he would) quarterbacking.

[Wanderlai]

trade this years #1 pick for the Bills 1st next yr and their 2nd and 3rd this yr. Try and hedge our chances on getting the overall 1st next yr and let Luck stay in school again.

[DamnItJake!]

I hope the hell not!! I don't give a poo who's number one.. It suxs ass to lose.. I always laughed at the Detroit Lions and said it must suck to be them!! I don't want that to be Carolina... We are a much better team than that..I think some management issues have set us back..poo what if Luck Sucks ass next year and gets hurt?? So you still draft him #1 over somebody you never thought of who totally destroyed it that year?? I liked the hype.. time to move on

[rayzor]

i don't want to go through another year of this crap, but if we don't do anything about QB that is exactly what we will be looking at.

[PantherProfessor]

too hard to predict. but we do have the league's hardest schedule heading into next season, so anything is possible i guess.