Panthers NFC South Champs!

[jfra78]

12 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

What if he gets 800 yards and 10 TDs?  Is that a bad year?

Okay he needs at least 1k yards or at least 10tds.  Better?

[PNW_PantherMan]

13 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Okay he needs at least 1k yards or at least 10tds.  Better?

The point is that evaluating his season is more nuanced than reaching a statistical milestone.  One year ago I wouldn't have necessarily been upset with ~50 catches/500 yards/4 TDs for XL.  But in context, he underperformed given the volume of snaps and targets.  And we all saw his issue with alligator arms.

The context is what matters.  Does he become the #1 target?  Does overall offensive production increase or stay the same?  Are there reasons for that outside his control ie injuries to other positions, regression by teammates, etc.

[jfra78]

22 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

The point is that evaluating his season is more nuanced than reaching a statistical milestone.  One year ago I wouldn't have necessarily been upset with ~50 catches/500 yards/4 TDs for XL.  But in context, he underperformed given the volume of snaps and targets.  And we all saw his issue with alligator arms.

The context is what matters.  Does he become the #1 target?  Does overall offensive production increase or stay the same?  Are there reasons for that outside his control ie injuries to other positions, regression by teammates, etc.

1k yards is not too much to ask for a top 10 pick and should be expected.   He should be considered the top target and if he's not then it was a bad pick.  4 rookies eclipsed 1k yards last season it's not too much to expect.  

[kungfoodude]

24 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

The point is that evaluating his season is more nuanced than reaching a statistical milestone.  One year ago I wouldn't have necessarily been upset with ~50 catches/500 yards/4 TDs for XL.  But in context, he underperformed given the volume of snaps and targets.  And we all saw his issue with alligator arms.

The context is what matters.  Does he become the #1 target?  Does overall offensive production increase or stay the same?  Are there reasons for that outside his control ie injuries to other positions, regression by teammates, etc.

I agree there nuance. But in general reaching that milestone should not be a difficult task given our situation.

[tukafan21]

2 hours ago, jfra78 said:

4 rookies eclipsed 1k yards last year, anything less would be a bad year for a top 10 pick at WR

Did you read my post though, I very clearly pointed out why T-Mac is in a situation that is nothing remotely like those 4 last year, so let's try again....

Malik Nabers had 1,204 yards, the next 3 best pass catchers on that team... Wan'Dale Robinson (699 yards), Darius Slayton (573), Theo Johnson (331)

Brian Thomas Jr had 1,282 yards, the next 3... Brenton Strange (411), Parker Washington (390), Christian Kirk (379)

Ladd McConkey had 1,149 yards, the next 3... Quentin Johnston (711), Josh Palmer (584), Will Dissly (481)

Bowers had 1,194 yards, the next 3... Jacoby Meyers (1,027), Tre Tucker (529), Alexander Mattisdon (294)

I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert on the games of all those next 3 players behind rookies, but I don't think it's at all a stretch to say that Thielen, XL, and Coker next year will ALL be better than EVERY player on that list with the possible exception of Jacoby Meyers.

If you can't see how having Thielen, XL, and Coker on the team will take more targets from T-Mac than Nabers, BTJ, Ladd, and Bowers had taken from them with the rest of their Top 4 options on their teams, then you're just fooling yourself.

Even looking at 2 years ago, Puka was the only rookie to get there, and his next 3 leading receivers were Kupp (737 in 12 games), HIgbee (495), and Atwell (483).  But this was also with the team having 4,300 receiving yards too, and if we have 4,300 yards in the passing game this year, then yes, I don't care what anyone else gets, T-Mac better be getting 1,000 or it will be a bad season for him.

If you can't see that putting expectations on T-Mac in a vacuum because of what past rookies have been able to do, without any regard to the players on the team around him, then that's on you, sorry.

7 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Sorry man, I am not really buying what your are selling. This isn't like XL, IMO, who was obviously never going to work out. I believe McMillian is the best WR in this class so expecting him to get 1k yards(or very close) shouldn't be some crazy stretch. Again, if our offense overall just struggles, I get it. 

As for AT, love the guy but consistent 1k+ seasons are likely to stop happening in the near future so I just don't buy that as justification for why T-Mac would be unable to get the targets necessary to produce. That scenario is either he isn't working out as well as anticipated or the offense isn't working out as well as anticipated.

So for you then, it sounds like you expect those yard to come from Thielen's total and that's what gets T-Mac over the 1k mark, which is a totally fair and valid prediction or expectation.

Again, I'm not saying I don't think T-Mac will get to 1,000 yards.

I'm saying it's not fair to have that as the EXPECTATION for him going into the season when you look at the offensive talent we have this year.

Those are two VERY different things.

If you EXPECT XL or Coker to take a step back and not improve this year, or if you EXPECT Thielen to finally lose a step and not come close to the 1k yard mark himself, then yes, I think EXPECTING 1,000 yards from T-Mac is perfectly acceptable in any or all of those situations and I'd then agree with you myself.

But I don't expect those things.  

I do expect XL and Coker to continue to improve.

I do expect Thielen to have one more season of being the same guy he has been for us the last 2 years.  He's averaged 60.3 yards per game in his two years here, which would be a 1,025 yard season in 17 games.  

It's going to be VERY hard if not impossible for XL and Coker to improve, Thielen to be the same player for us, and T-Mac get to 1,000 yards all in the same season.  If all 4 of those things happen, then as I've said before, Bryce might be a legitimate MVP contender as it means he's putting up video game like numbers, as it's hard to have 4 WRs who all produce like that in one season.

Your argument of T-Mac not getting to 1,000 meaning either he didn't work out or the offense didn't work out, isn't fair, as there is a very real possibility that the offense clicks, all 4 of those WRs work out, and because of it, all 4 of them have suppressed stats this year compared to what they might have been able to put up without one or more of the other guys on the same team.

Edited 18 hours ago by tukafan21

[tukafan21]

The much shorter and less number analytical version of the above is that the T-Mac pick wasn't about giving Bryce an alpha receiver this season that dominates the targets.

It was about shifting the rest of the WRs down a peg in their role to give Bryce better options this year while giving us a true #1 to take over next year when Thielen retires or signs somewhere else.

It's to let XL and Coker grow this year as the 3rd and 4th option instead of the 2nd and 3rd option, so that they are then ready to step into those increased roles in 2026.  While at the same time it's to allow T-Mac to get used to the NFL game without the pressure on him that those rookies last year had to be THE guy.  

And that's not to say he can't be THE guy, it's just that if you don't HAVE to do that to your rookie, it's better for the entire team, no matter how good that rookie may or may not be. 

Expectations are different than real possibilities.

It's very POSSIBLE for T-Mac to get to 1k this year, but I think it's unfair to put that EXPECTATION on him leading into the season due to the other options Bryce will have at his disposal this year.

Edited 18 hours ago by tukafan21

[jfra78]

11 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Did you read my post though, I very clearly pointed out why T-Mac is in a situation that is nothing remotely like those 4 last year, so let's try again....

Malik Nabers had 1,204 yards, the next 3 best pass catchers on that team... Wan'Dale Robinson (699 yards), Darius Slayton (573), Theo Johnson (331)

Brian Thomas Jr had 1,282 yards, the next 3... Brenton Strange (411), Parker Washington (390), Christian Kirk (379)

Ladd McConkey had 1,149 yards, the next 3... Quentin Johnston (711), Josh Palmer (584), Will Dissly (481)

Bowers had 1,194 yards, the next 3... Jacoby Meyers (1,027), Tre Tucker (529), Alexander Mattisdon (294)

I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert on the games of all those next 3 players behind rookies, but I don't think it's at all a stretch to say that Thielen, XL, and Coker next year will ALL be better than EVERY player on that list with the possible exception of Jacoby Meyers.

If you can't see how having Thielen, XL, and Coker on the team will take more targets from T-Mac than Nabers, BTJ, Ladd, and Bowers had taken from them with the rest of their Top 4 options on their teams, then you're just fooling yourself.

Even looking at 2 years ago, Puka was the only rookie to get there, and his next 3 leading receivers were Kupp (737 in 12 games), HIgbee (495), and Atwell (483).  But this was also with the team having 4,300 receiving yards too, and if we have 4,300 yards in the passing game this year, then yes, I don't care what anyone else gets, T-Mac better be getting 1,000 or it will be a bad season for him.

If you can't see that putting expectations on T-Mac in a vacuum because of what past rookies have been able to do, without any regard to the players on the team around him, then that's on you, sorry.

So for you then, it sounds like you expect those yard to come from Thielen's total and that's what gets T-Mac over the 1k mark, which is a totally fair and valid prediction or expectation.

Again, I'm not saying I don't think T-Mac will get to 1,000 yards.

I'm saying it's not fair to have that as the EXPECTATION for him going into the season when you look at the offensive talent we have this year.

Those are two VERY different things.

If you EXPECT XL or Coker to take a step back and not improve this year, or if you EXPECT Thielen to finally lose a step and not come close to the 1k yard mark himself, then yes, I think EXPECTING 1,000 yards from T-Mac is perfectly acceptable in any or all of those situations and I'd then agree with you myself.

But I don't expect those things.  

I do expect XL and Coker to continue to improve.

I do expect Thielen to have one more season of being the same guy he has been for us the last 2 years.  He's averaged 60.3 yards per game in his two years here, which would be a 1,025 yard season in 17 games.  

It's going to be VERY hard if not impossible for XL and Coker to improve, Thielen to be the same player for us, and T-Mac get to 1,000 yards all in the same season.  If all 4 of those things happen, then as I've said before, Bryce might be a legitimate MVP contender as it means he's putting up video game like numbers, as it's hard to have 4 WRs who all produce like that in one season.

Your argument of T-Mac not getting to 1,000 meaning either he didn't work out or the offense didn't work out, isn't fair, as there is a very real possibility that the offense clicks, all 4 of those WRs work out, and because of it, all 4 of them have suppressed stats this year compared to what they might have been able to put up without one or more of the other guys on the same team.

Sounds like a bunch of excuses. 

[tukafan21]

7 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Sounds like a bunch of excuses. 

Okay then, tell me what your expectations are for Thielen, XL, and Coker this year

If someone wants to come out there and say they think Thielen is only getting 600-700 yards this year, then yea, I'm going to then expect T-Mac to get to 1,000.

If someone wants to say they think XL or Coker is going to fall back to 300 yards this year, then yea, I'm going to expect T-Mac to get to 1,000.

People seem to think I'm making excuses for why T-Mac can't get there, but it's the literal opposite, my expectations for him stem from my belief our other WRs for the first time in who knows how long.  

We finally have a legitimate and full WR room, not sure that's happened since the Smitty and Moose days.  It's going to make them all better players, but it will also suppress all of their stats as they're all going to cannibalize each other a little bit.

 

 

[jfra78]

8 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Okay then, tell me what your expectations are for Thielen, XL, and Coker this year

If someone wants to come out there and say they think Thielen is only getting 600-700 yards this year, then yea, I'm going to then expect T-Mac to get to 1,000.

If someone wants to say they think XL or Coker is going to fall back to 300 yards this year, then yea, I'm going to expect T-Mac to get to 1,000.

People seem to think I'm making excuses for why T-Mac can't get there, but it's the literal opposite, my expectations for him stem from my belief our other WRs for the first time in who knows how long.  

We finally have a legitimate and full WR room, not sure that's happened since the Smitty and Moose days.  It's going to make them all better players, but it will also suppress all of their stats as they're all going to cannibalize each other a little bit.

 

 

I think Theilen will have a reduced role this year.  Tmac should be considered 1(this shouldnt even be a question), XL 2, and Coker the slot. I see AT in more of a mentor role maybe 300-400 yards.  This Offense needs to take a step forward and we can't use last years numbers to justify this year's numbers

[tukafan21]

17 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

I think Theilen will have a reduced role this year.  Tmac should be considered 1(this shouldnt even be a question), XL 2, and Coker the slot. I see AT in more of a mentor role maybe 300-400 yards.  This Offense needs to take a step forward and we can't use last years numbers to justify this year's numbers

Well sure, that's where the disconnect is then.

If Thielen only gets 300-400 yards and T-Mac is healthy for the full season, then I'm with you guys, in that scenario there is absolutely zero excuse for him to not put up over 1,000 yards.  

In fact, I'll let you double that, if Thielen has only 600 yards, then again, my expectations are for T-Mac to surpass the 1k mark with ease.

But his game has never been about his physical abilities, so even if he loses a half a step, he's still the same player who is a savvy route runner who will get open and Bryce will continue to find him due to their chemistry.  Particularly since Bryce isn't a QB who forces things, he takes what the defense gives him.  So when teams focus on T-Mac and Thielen is more free to find those holes in the defense than he has the last two years, I don't think Bryce is going to ignore him.

If someone wants to argue for T-Mac getting to 1,000 yards, personally, I'd say those yards would be far more likelier to come from XL and Coker than Thielen.  And that has nothing to do with XL or Coker, but that I'm still a firm believer in Thielen being able to still get 50-60 yards a game, again, particularly as he'll have less defensive attention on him than in either of his 2 seasons with us so far.

Just because T-Mac is our #1 of the future who will have the ball forced to him at times, doesn't mean he needs to be forced into that role from day 1 when we have 3 very legitimate WR options next to him.

Let the rookie grow into the role and the NFL game, we have that ability to do so because of Thielen, XL, and Coker.

Edited 17 hours ago by tukafan21

[PNW_PantherMan]

XL could easily be the last dog at the bowl for WR production next year.  That could leave him around 200-300 yards which would be disastrous.

[tukafan21]

5 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

XL could easily be the last dog at the bowl for WR production next year.  That could leave him around 200-300 yards which would be disastrous.

This is also why in a way, I don't want T-Mac to get to 1,000 yards, because I think it means XL or Coker took a step back.

While maybe that would be good for T-Mac's growth, I have absolutely zero, in fact, less than zero concern about T-Mac becoming THAT guy for us and being a Top 10 WR every year with legit Top 5 potential.

And even though I have faith that XL and Coker can be that 2/3 combo next to T-Mac in the future, I have far more concern in the two of them getting there than T-Mac being that #1, so their growth is "more important" to me this season than T-Mac's, in that sense.

Thielen's presence will suppress the numbers T-Mac/XL/Coker put up, but his presence is what is best for Bryce's growth, which is more important than anything with the WRs this year because we need to know if he's going to be that franchise QB for us.

If Bryce already proved himself to be that guy, Thielen isn't even on the team this year and none of this is a debate, then yes, T-Mac would HAVE to put up 1k this season.

Edited 17 hours ago by tukafan21

[jfra78]

16 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

This is also why in a way, I don't want T-Mac to get to 1,000 yards, because I think it means XL or Coker took a step back.

While maybe that would be good for T-Mac's growth, I have absolutely zero, in fact, less than zero concern about T-Mac becoming THAT guy for us and being a Top 10 WR every year with legit Top 5 potential.

And even though I have faith that XL and Coker can be that 2/3 combo next to T-Mac in the future, I have far more concern in the two of them getting there than T-Mac being that #1, so their growth is "more important" to me this season than T-Mac's, in that sense.

Thielen's presence will suppress the numbers T-Mac/XL/Coker put up, but his presence is what is best for Bryce's growth, which is more important than anything with the WRs this year because we need to know if he's going to be that franchise QB for us.

If Bryce already proved himself to be that guy, Thielen isn't even on the team this year and none of this is a debate, then yes, T-Mac would HAVE to put up 1k this season.

I think its strange how you were claiming this guy was the second coming of Mike Evans and you can't even get behind 1k yards? I guess I have more faith in him than you

[tukafan21]

15 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

I think its strange how you were claiming this guy was the second coming of Mike Evans and you can't even get behind 1k yards? I guess I have more faith in him than you

I think it's strange that you still can't see where I'm coming from, and I guarantee you don't have more faith in him than I do.  You're looking at him in a vacuum, not about the team around him and the likely offensive game plans this season.

We're going to be a run first team with 3 receiving options better than any of the other players on past rookie 1k seasons.

If you can't understand that, then it's a you problem, not a me problem.

Arizona's previous basketball coach, Sean Miller, used to do something at the first team meeting of every season and I think it's soooooooooo applicable to this situation.

He'd have every player right down how many minutes/points they expected to average that season and then he'd add them up.  It would show that if they all hit those numbers, we'd score like 125 points a game and need to be playing 7 guys at a time to get their minutes.

That's pretty much how you guys are putting your T-Mac expectations out there, looking solely at the player and what you think he should be able to do, not how the offense will operate as a whole.

Every yard one player gets is one less yard someone else can get.  It sounds like I just have more faith in Thielen, XL, and Coker this year than most everyone else.  But a big reason for that faith is because of T-Mac and how much he'll open things up for the rest of them and Bryce being the type of QB to take the open easy passes than force it to his #1.

As I've said, if any one of the following happens... Thielen ends the season sub 700 yards, XL or Coker end up sub 500 yards...

Then yes, I will then shift my expectations for T-Mac's rookie year to be at least 1,000 yard season.

But since I have faith in those other 3 having solid seasons, it tempers my expectations yardage totals for T-Mac this year, and this year alone.  I've also clearly stated many times that I think he's going to reach 10 TDs.

If T-Mac ends the season with 800 yards and 10 TDs, while Thielen gets 900-1,000 and XL/Coker each get around 600, I don't see any world where that is a failure for a rookie season for T-Mac.

Because again, we're talking about expectations, not what is possible.  So given the other WR options, I can't EXPECT T-Mac to get to the 1k mark, which is a far cry from me saying I don't think he can get there.

Do you really not see the difference there?

 

Edited 16 hours ago by tukafan21