Adam Theilen said he came back to play with Bryce, and he expects the Panthers to surprise some people

[PNW_PantherMan]

I would also add that I think it's more than money.  AT has looked absolutely miserable out there at times, and there was a lot of speculation he would demand to be traded.  Personally, I thought he was a lock to be moved last year.  Maybe his hamstring is the only thing that prevents that from happening.

The fact that he's not only willing to come back and play, but excited about it, really bodes well for Bryce.  AT is a veteran and he knows the game.  If he didn't have confidence in Bryce, I guarantee you he wouldn't be in a Panther uniform this year.  I'll take that as a positive.

[Icege]

20 minutes ago, CRA said:

Okay in our wins he had 0, 0, 6, 6, and 6 targets last year while producing about 40 yards in games he did play in.  Those games also represented games he had the least amount yards on the field on the season and was slightly under his average targets per game.  

AT production and games people use to talk about how good he still is.....don't translate to wins.  To me, we often just get stuck in games both in 23 and 24 of over targeting him and him getting too many non-threatening yards.  Those are the AT fantasy football games.  

Like I said, to me it's just the fit of it all.  He occupies space in our cap and basically team where we need real legit O coming from that spot..  To me, he just isn't that dude.  Given where we are, I'd rather be building up younger guys with the reps.   I think he gets too many is all.  I get why they had to keep him.  But he needs to be phased down on reps on the field.   

It's not just targets.  It's offensive snaps.   But yeah, when AT is dominating snaps and then gets up to the 7 or 8 or heaven for bid 10+ targets? That's just not the football I want to see.  That's losing football IMO if AT occupies that role in the O. 

We're in alignment regarding Thielen not being a game changer/breaker for the Panthers. Getting the ball into hands of playmakers like TMac and XL is going to open up things more than it is getting it to Thielen underneath (or letting him go after 50/50 balls 20yds downfield in his mid-30s).

However, in a room where the other guys are two second year guys and two rookies, having a reliable vet that they can learn from is just as important as it is for the QB to have as a reliable third option. I can see that being worth $8.5M (just 3%) of the $279.2M cap... especially when looking at what's left out there: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/position/wr

However, the idea that the team is forcing production to Thielen and leading to losses isn't supported by the data. Targets, not receiving yards, are how you can tell if a player is being "force fed." In the two games mentioned, let's look at the other players available...

vs. TB

• 10 targets - Adam Thielen
• 9 targets - David Moore
• 8 targets - Tommy Tremble, Xavier Legette
• 3 targets - Jonathon Brooks
• 1 target - Dan Chisena, Feleipe Franks, Stephen Sullivan

vs. PHI

• 11 targets - Adam Thielen
• 8 targets - Xavier Legette
• 5 targets - Chuba Hubbard, David Moore
• 2 targets - Tommy Tremble
• 1 target - Ja'Tavion Sanders, Deven Thompkins

There isn't exactly a bounty of other names to throw the ball to. In those games, AT was one of the top 2 WRs. Diontae had been gone by that point.

 

So... yea. Agreed that Thielen isn't exactly carrying the team in his mid-30s, but it's undeniable that he was the most reliable target last season that still has quite a bit of value this season. Whether or not that value is reflected in a manner folks think on the contract is going to come down to personal taste. However, the idea that the team was forcing production to AT and that was the reason behind some losses couldn't be further from the truth.

Edited 8 hours ago by Icege

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

oh, 100%, it's not AT's fault.  I just hate the scenario was basically.....well,  a rookie didn't step up so we really have no option but to convince AT not to retire with even more money/cap. 

To me, we have been for some time the land of random parts being places together.   Maybe Canales will stay around long enough that changes.   I think it's going to hard for any coach under Tepper to survive to get a real cohesive vision to play out. 

 

Oh for sure. I think it was always an effort of poor roster building relying on unproven youngsters and an over the hill vet. But here we go again. It's the same story again this year. Hopefully it works out better this go round.

[frankw]

Thielen got hurt and only played ten games last season but had 62 targets. That's 6 targets a game over the course of 17 games that would have been 105 targets. That would have put him well ahead of Xavier Legette who led our receivers in targets with 84. For comparison sake David Moore played all 17 games and only had 57 targets. We've been overvaluing Thielen in the passing game the last two years any way you cut it.

[X-Clown]

21 hours ago, frankw said:

With the positive press the team has been getting I've forgotten we are paying AT $9 million for the one season. That's fuging insanity. And in 2023 when he eclipsed 1k yards we had the worst passing offense in the league lmao.

Then we're paying Dalton $8 million hoping we never have to watch him throw a football again under any circumstances.

Yeah let's hope these young guys are ready to elevate the team so we don't have to think about these issues.

Thielen at 8.75 million puts him at like the 35th highest paid wide receiver and that's including many guys on rookie deals who are clearly going to make more soon. Would we have been better off signing Josh Palmer, Dyami Brown, or Tutu Atwell who are getting paid about 1 million more per year? 

Andy Dalton's contract is 8 million but it's for two years so it's 4 million a year. This puts him around the range of Josh Dobbs, Jameis Winston, Davis Mills, etc. This is a normal range for back up quarterbacks.

Why exactly you are you singling out these guys who are making salaries on par with many of their other peers given their production level?

[Icege]

This keeps circling back to the point of... who was supposed to be targeted? The next best option was a rookie drafted at the end of the first round and he got 84 targets over 16 games.

Between Coker's emergence and the additions of TMac + Horn Jr, AT is going to see his opportunities going to younger guys. Fretting that he got so many targets last season when Diontae Johnson washed out, XL struggled, and they were left with David Moore as the next best option seems to be missing the forest for the trees.

[LinvilleGorge]

59 minutes ago, frankw said:

Thielen got hurt and only played ten games last season but had 62 targets. That's 6 targets a game over the course of 17 games that would have been 105 targets. That would have put him well ahead of Xavier Legette who led our receivers in targets with 84. For comparison sake David Moore played all 17 games and only had 57 targets. We've been overvaluing Thielen in the passing game the last two years any way you cut it.

We should stop throwing to the guy who gets open and catches the ball. I'm sure that'll help the offense.

[frankw]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We should stop throwing to the guy who gets open and catches the ball. I'm sure that'll help the offense.

I missed the part where the league office forced us to sign Adam Thielen. What teams were clamoring to sign him and make him an integral point of their offense? So far we're the ones trying to convince other teams Thielen actually has something left in the tank. And what's our win percentage the last few years? Worst in professional sports?

[frankw]

54 minutes ago, X-Clown said:

Thielen at 8.75 million puts him at like the 35th highest paid wide receiver and that's including many guys on rookie deals who are clearly going to make more soon. Would we have been better off signing Josh Palmer, Dyami Brown, or Tutu Atwell who are getting paid about 1 million more per year? 

Andy Dalton's contract is 8 million but it's for two years so it's 4 million a year. This puts him around the range of Josh Dobbs, Jameis Winston, Davis Mills, etc. This is a normal range for back up quarterbacks.

Why exactly you are you singling out these guys who are making salaries on par with many of their other peers given their production level?

For any criticism I may have for Adam Thielen he does at least have a minimal semblance of contribution. Andy Dalton on the other hand while being a great guy is absolutely horrendous. We could have signed literally anyone else and it would have been a significant upgrade. The New Orleans Saints who are in complete disarray at QB rejected him. That was a poverty franchise signing that we made to appease our starter. Nothing more.

[LinvilleGorge]

43 minutes ago, frankw said:

I missed the part where the league office forced us to sign Adam Thielen. What teams were clamoring to sign him and make him an integral point of their offense? So far we're the ones trying to convince other teams Thielen actually has something left in the tank. And what's our win percentage the last few years? Worst in professional sports?

The guy caught 77% of his targets last year. Jalen Coker was #2 among WRs st 69%. Legette #3 all the way down at 58.3%.

But yeah, you're right. Our anemic passing offense is all because of Thielen and our obsession with forcing the ball to him. LOLOLOLOL

What your doing is akin to a failing company blaming their lack of success on their top sales rep who while not knocking it out of the park is actually hitting his numbers and meeting expectations while everyone is trailing far behind.  Actually, Coker too. Thielen is meeting expectations, Coker is exceeding expectations considerably for a UDFA and everyone else is basically contributing dog poo while turning in expense reports way over budget. But it's your vet leading sales rep who most people expected to be retired by now but is still delivering to expectations who is ultimately to blame for it all. It's an absurd argument.

[X-Clown]

36 minutes ago, frankw said:

For any criticism I may have for Adam Thielen he does at least have a minimal semblance of contribution. Andy Dalton on the other hand while being a great guy is absolutely horrendous. We could have signed literally anyone else and it would have been a significant upgrade. The New Orleans Saints who are in complete disarray at QB rejected him. That was a poverty franchise signing that we made to appease our starter. Nothing more.

I feel like you either don't follow the rest of the league or just have some kind of axe to grind about Andy Dalton. He's paid like a veteran back up QB because that's exactly what he is. His contract comes in at 41st in AAV in the league. His pay is the exact same as Jameis Winston and Josh Dobbs, right around the same as Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones, and Cooper Rush, and slightly less than Zach Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, Jarrett Stidham, and Tyrod Taylor. Are any other of those guys meaningfully better than Dalton? 

And what are you even talking about with his situation with the Saints? That was his fourth team in four years, he was signed to be...gasp....a back up QB (just like he was here). He only played most of the season for the Saints the year he was there because their starter (Jameis Winston) was hurt. Then the Saints went and overpaid Derek Carr the next offseason and the rest is history. 

Edited 4 hours ago by X-Clown

[Icege]

41 minutes ago, X-Clown said:

I feel like you either don't follow the rest of the league or just have some kind of axe to grind about Andy Dalton. He's paid like a veteran back up QB because that's exactly what he is. His contract comes in at 41st in AAV in the league. His pay is the exact same as Jameis Winston and Josh Dobbs, right around the same as Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones, and Cooper Rush, and slightly less than Zach Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, Jarrett Stidham, and Tyrod Taylor. Are any other of those guys meaningfully better than Dalton? 

And what are you even talking about with his situation with the Saints? That was his fourth team in four years, he was signed to be...gasp....a back up QB (just like he was here). He only played most of the season for the Saints the year he was there because their starter (Jameis Winston) was hurt. Then the Saints went and overpaid Derek Carr the next offseason and the rest is history. 

Fans that are hating on Andy are mainly doing it because they hate Bryce and want another QB on the roster that they believe can take the starting job.

That's really all there is to it at this point.

Edited 3 hours ago by Icege

[PNW_PantherMan]

The only reason I don't like bringing Andy back is he's made of glass at this point.  If your starter goes down, you're screwed anyways though.  So really it's more of just having a veteran body on the roster that can play QB at a 3rd grade level.  In reality that's 99% of 2nd string QBs in the NFL.

Edited 3 hours ago by PNW_PantherMan

[PNW_PantherMan]

Also with AT's toolkit, I really don't think he's going to fall off athletically.  He has not been rated highly at separating to this point anyways.  He's a hands guy.  That tool ages very well.  It's just a matter of staving off the injury bug.  That's what will end up taking him out for good.