Not Necessarily Panthers Related but....

[kungfoodude]

....I am trying to build out a QB Success model.

This is what I have so far. Give me some critiques or other input to help me improve it. 

Note: ANY of these being applicable make the QB a "success" in the model. Not any combination of them.

1st Round QB's

Hall Of Fame

1+ MVP's

1+ All-Pro

1+ Pro Bowl

8+ Year Starter

2nd Round QB's

Any of the above

5+ Year Starter

10+ Year Career

3rd Round QB's

Any of the above

3+ Year Starter

7+ Year Career

4-7th Round QB's

Any of the above

30+ Games Started

5+ Year Career

[kungfoodude]

In between Huddle crashing, anyone have input?

I am trying to make this model fairly reasonable.

I understand there is a lot more nuance but I feel like these rough outlines encompass what I would consider "successful return" on a QB given draft positioning. It also doesn't overtly penalize successful QB's that have injury shorted careers.

 

Just looking to bounce this off people and improve it before going live with it.

 

I already have almost 300 QB's loaded from 1994(first year of the 7 round draft) to 2018(outer limit of the 1st rounder 8 year mark).

[Panthera onca]

Post season wins.

[PNW_PantherMan]

2 minutes ago, Panthera onca said:

Post season wins.

Yeah I also would like to invoke the Eli clause here.

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, Panthera onca said:

Post season wins.

That's hard to quantify and I think a little unfair since most of these QB's end up with dumpster fire franchises.

What would be the way you would include that? Win percentage? Total wins? 

How do you account for guys that just end up on shitty teams(Stafford pre-Rams, for example)?

Not against it, I just don't know how to do that and be fair across all those tiers.

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Yeah I also would like to invoke the Eli clause here.

But Eli would be a "success" with this criteria.

[PNW_PantherMan]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

But Eli would be a "success" with this criteria.

Ok I see.  I misread the rules.

[PNW_PantherMan]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That's hard to quantify and I think a little unfair since most of these QB's end up with dumpster fire franchises.

What would be the way you would include that? Win percentage? Total wins? 

How do you account for guys that just end up on shitty teams(Stafford pre-Rams, for example)?

Not against it, I just don't know how to do that and be fair across all those tiers.

"Super Bowl win as starter"?  I don't know that I personally care about anything else.  Even if that's not a QB stat lol.

[45catfan]

All criteria has to be based off of personal accomplishments?

[Basbear]

Some UDFAs have made it- Romo, Delhommey, Warner, Moon, flutie(tho it seems NFL teams are better drafting now).

 

My best gauge is how they handle adversity. I swear this is the best and nearly tired and true. 

This isn't fool proof, but decent enough to mention even in this era-

For Parcells to consider drafting a quarterback, they must meet the following seven criteria:

• Be a three-year starter
• Be a senior in college
• Graduate from college
• Start 30 games
• Win 23 games
• Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
• Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

[kungfoodude]

14 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Ok I see.  I misread the rules.

It isn't rules, I am just trying to make it useful. It's a discussion.

14 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

"Super Bowl win as starter"?  I don't know that I personally care about anything else.  Even if that's not a QB stat lol.

I don't know if you would be excluding anyone without that. Take Dilfer and Foles. Both hit as successes even with these rules in place.

12 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

All criteria has to be based off of personal accomplishments?

I am not sure how I would include team accomplishments in a reasonable manner. Open to suggestions.

8 minutes ago, Basbear said:

Some UDFAs have made it- Romo, Delhommey, Warner, Moon, flutie(tho it seems NFL teams are better drafting now).

 

My best gauge is how they handle adversity. I swear this is the best and nearly tired and true. 

This isn't fool proof, but decent enough to mention even in this era-

For Parcells to consider drafting a quarterback, they must meet the following seven criteria:

• Be a three-year starter
• Be a senior in college
• Graduate from college
• Start 30 games
• Win 23 games
• Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
• Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

UDFA's don't add much value. The root of this is to determine draft success.

Adversity isn't something that can easily be quantified. It's really hard to make that work and not be very subjective. Open to suggestions.

The college criteria couldn't be used for this.

[Panthera onca]

22 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That's hard to quantify and I think a little unfair since most of these QB's end up with dumpster fire franchises.

What would be the way you would include that? Win percentage? Total wins? 

How do you account for guys that just end up on shitty teams(Stafford pre-Rams, for example)?

Not against it, I just don't know how to do that and be fair across all those tiers.

Probably if you use it, percentage of wins in the games played along with percentage of seasons the team makes the playoffs. Your point about being on bad teams is very valid but that would affect all of the other criteria as well.

[45catfan]

Completion percentage and TD:Int ratio should be applied across the board regardless of draft position.  There shouldn't be grading on a curve of actual stats depending on round drafted.  50% completion is a$$ no matter what round a QB was taken.  You could argue the inverse, that would make a bigger bust for say a first round QB.

[Basbear]

12 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It isn't rules, I am just trying to make it useful. It's a discussion.

I don't know if you would be excluding anyone without that. Take Dilfer and Foles. Both hit as successes even with these rules in place.

I am not sure how I would include team accomplishments in a reasonable manner. Open to suggestions.

UDFA's don't add much value. The root of this is to determine draft success.

Adversity isn't something that can easily be quantified. It's really hard to make that work and not be very subjective. Open to suggestions.

The college criteria couldn't be used for this.

Are you asking which NFL stats can be used for making the perfect QB?

Can I ask how many stats categories do you have and what they are??

 

I say this before the numbers are formulated, there's nearly always out-liners. Panthers had plenty of them believe it or not- Cam being the biggest, like if you value comp% Cam was bad most career, but still won and got to the SB. Teddy2gloves is a comp% God, but never won much outside the special season incoming but his leg exploded. 

 

Wins vs winning teams

Wins after loses

 

Heres more ideas for you to read as others have attacks this as well-   https://www.natesilver.net/p/best-quarterbacks-of-all-time-qbert-elway

 

good luck!

Edited 8 hours ago by Basbear