A historical perspective on just how statistically bad Bryce Young as a passer this season.

[Bear Hands]

53 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Don't forget Josh Rosen. Immediately pivoted from that mistake.

Also, Dart is not what I would call an NFL success. Lots of potential and skill level but TBD.

He is significantly behind Young in most categories. He's quite atrocious.

I'm speaking to when a guy matches NFL speed and has the intangible feel at this level.  Dart has it.  You can have those traits and still not be a world beater.

He has a lot of stuff developmentally to work on, but it's clear he's able to play at this level.  He's easily a minimum good backup long term.  Already looks better than Bo Nix has for example.

[TN05]

At this point Bryce has been a sub-replacement level QB for three years as the team has improved dramatically around him. His performance hasn't really changed at all. There's been no development or growth. At some point you just have to move on.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

I'm speaking to when a guy matches NFL speed and has the intangible feel at this level.  Dart has it.  You can have those traits and still not be a world beater.

He has a lot of stuff developmentally to work on, but it's clear he's able to play at this level.  He's easily a minimum good backup long term.  Already looks better than Bo Nix has for example.

Nix has had a ton of success but he is a system QB. He wouldn't be that successful everywhere. 

[Bear Hands]

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Nix has had a ton of success but he is a system QB. He wouldn't be that successful everywhere. 

For sure.  He's been pretty terrible under pressure but Peyton helps him out a ton.  

[Bear Hands]

2 hours ago, TN05 said:

At this point Bryce has been a sub-replacement level QB for three years as the team has improved dramatically around him. His performance hasn't really changed at all. There's been no development or growth. At some point you just have to move on.

Pretty much.

His mechanics have never changed. Shallow, slow shotgun drops, stays parallel to the LOS, with the abrupt hop-turn flick that deflates any decent velocity.  QB-101 stuff that he's never done because he plays all "loose".

The biggest thing I've realized this year was something that came from seeing people praise him when he finally does show some anticipation (like that one XL TD) -- He really can't layer a throw.    

He can understand where a guy will be and smartly place a ball with anticipation, but it's in the design/him knowing the spot.    

But if he needs to make a live read and lead a guy, drop something in with velocity for a guy in stride...that, he can't do.  He absolutely, just can't, and he's never figured it out.  He can't reset in the pocket and layer a throw in.  

I really can't think of a single deeper throw he's made since we drafted him where he led a guy in stride beyond 20 yards where he gave the WR the field to make a TD.  It's always these mid-air adjustments they're making that completely loses their momentum since he can't get that deep placement right.

We were spoiled with the Jake/Smitty days and Cam's legs letting guys break open.  But it just doesn't happen with Bryce.

[TN05]

1 hour ago, Bear Hands said:

Pretty much.

His mechanics have never changed. Shallow, slow shotgun drops, stays parallel to the LOS, with the abrupt hop-turn flick that deflates any decent velocity.  QB-101 stuff that he's never done because he plays all "loose".

The biggest thing I've realized this year was something that came form seeing people praise him when he finally does show some anticipation (like that one XL TD) -- He really can't layer a throw.    

He can understand where a guy will be and smartly place a ball with anticipation, but it's in the design/him knowing the spot.    

But if he needs to make a live read and lead a guy, drop something in with velocity for a guy in stride...that, he can't do.  He absolutely, just can't, and he's never figured it out.  He can't reset in the pocket and layer a throw in.  

I really can't think of a single deeper throw he's made since we drafted him where he led a guy in stride beyond 20 yards where he gave the WR the field to make a TD.  It's always these mid-air adjustments they're making that completely loses their momentum since he can't get that deep placement right.

We were spoiled with the Jake/Smitty days and Cam's legs letting guys break open.  But it just doesn't happen with Bryce.

I generated a few quick histogram of his passing compared to Jake and Cam.

• Bryce - 182 mean passing YPG
• Jake - 212 mean passing YPG
• Cam - 223 mean passing YPG (this does not include rushing - he averaged 38 rushing yards per game!)

Bryce literally has more 80-124 yard games than games with over 260 yards. This is the longest sustained stretch of ineptitude we've ever seen at QB.

Compare this to Cam, who averaged 219 yards a game. 68% of Bryce's games were less than that.

Jake also has a midloaded distribution. Bryce is the outlier

 

[Castavar]

4 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I am sure we would love his 124 yds/GM passing and his 24 yard career long passing.

He is quite literally one of the only QB's in the NFL worse than Bryce. Same noodle arm.

Aren't they about the same size too? Why TF are teams all of sudden drafting these small ass QBs that have an EXTREMELY low hit rate at an already extremely low hit rate position? 

[kungfoodude]

4 hours ago, Castavar said:

Aren't they about the same size too? Why TF are teams all of sudden drafting these small ass QBs that have an EXTREMELY low hit rate at an already extremely low hit rate position? 

Drafting Dillon Gabriel in the 3rd round was a foolish overdraft. Drafting Bryce Young 1st overall in a trade up will go down as one of the worst draft trades in NFL history.

Small QB's get taken all the time, it's the wild overdrafting that is absurd.

[kungfoodude]

6 hours ago, TN05 said:

I generated a few quick histogram of his passing compared to Jake and Cam.

• Bryce - 182 mean passing YPG
• Jake - 212 mean passing YPG
• Cam - 223 mean passing YPG (this does not include rushing - he averaged 38 rushing yards per game!)

Bryce literally has more 80-124 yard games than games with over 260 yards. This is the longest sustained stretch of ineptitude we've ever seen at QB.

Compare this to Cam, who averaged 219 yards a game. 68% of Bryce's games were less than that.

Jake also has a midloaded distribution. Bryce is the outlier

 

Excellent work. I did this as rough ranges but this is far more detailed and a more clear visual representation of what we are dealing with.

[SCO96]

8 hours ago, TN05 said:

I generated a few quick histogram of his passing compared to Jake and Cam.

• Bryce - 182 mean passing YPG
• Jake - 212 mean passing YPG
• Cam - 223 mean passing YPG (this does not include rushing - he averaged 38 rushing yards per game!)

Bryce literally has more 80-124 yard games than games with over 260 yards. This is the longest sustained stretch of ineptitude we've ever seen at QB.

Compare this to Cam, who averaged 219 yards a game. 68% of Bryce's games were less than that.

Jake also has a midloaded distribution. Bryce is the outlier

 

Good work TN05! You put way more work into this post than I did when I started the thread 

Didn't Tepper say he wanted to use more analytics to make decisions for the Panthers? He needs to see this. I wonder if after a careful analysis he'd be able to interpret all of the data from this thread and come to the conclusion that he needs to allow Dan and Dave to move on from Bryce...or at least bring in a player in the off-season to have a legitimate competition for the starting job. 

[rebelrouser]

7 hours ago, Castavar said:

Aren't they about the same size too? Why TF are teams all of sudden drafting these small ass QBs that have an EXTREMELY low hit rate at an already extremely low hit rate position? 

The Browns had a 1st, two 2nd's (Schwesinger was excellent pick), and two thirds (Fannin was excellent pick), so I guess they felt like they could gamble on a late third qb lottery ticket. You are right though. No need to use a third when everyone else was done w/ the qb's. Hell, the next one to go was Shadeur in the 5th.