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Passer Rating Differential: A Key to predicting a teams playoff and championship potential.

SCO96

By SCO96,
in Carolina Panthers

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

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Posted (edited)

Passer Rating Differential = Offensive Passer Rating  - Defensive Passer Rating 

 

  • Offensive Passer Rating = how efficient your team’s QBs are.

  • Defensive Passer Rating Allowed = how efficient opposing QBs are against your defense.

The larger the positive differential, the more dominant your team’s passing game is relative to opponents’ passing success.
Conversely, a negative differential means your defense is getting carved up or your offense isn’t efficient enough.

Almost every Super Bowl champion from the 1970s to the present day finished near the top of the league in DPRD (Defensive Passer Rating Differential).

https://coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/passer-ratings-differential

Look at where we are #16 and we have a Negative DPRD (-0.36).

Every team above us has a a positive DPRD, is .500 or better, and still in running for a playoff spot.  Look at the chart. The best teams in the NFL have the highest DPRD.

Only 2 teams below us with a negative DPRD are still in contention or the playoffs: #19 San Francisco (-4.44) and # 21 Tampa Bay(-6.62). And, Tampa has no shot if they fail to beat us down the stretch at least once. The teams with the highest negative DPRD always seem to be at the bottom of the standings.

I didn't learn about this stat until 15 years ago. It's amazing how it always seems to accurately predict who will be in playoff contention year end and year out.

1 = Los Angeles Rams 111.76 85.23 26.53
2 3 Philadelphia Eagles 100.00 75.57 24.43
3 1 Seattle Seahawks 100.30 77.42 22.88
4 1 Buffalo Bills 104.20 82.66 21.54
5 1 Los Angeles Chargers 91.46 71.19 20.27
6 1 Houston Texans 90.70 72.40 18.30
7 1 Detroit Lions 110.41 94.40 16.01
8 1 New England Patriots 109.10 96.75 12.35
9 3 Green Bay Packers 102.95 92.09 10.86
10 1 Denver Broncos 89.21 78.78 10.43
11 1 Indianapolis Colts 95.12 85.91 9.21
12 = Pittsburgh Steelers 97.42 89.90 7.52
13 = Baltimore Ravens 93.87 86.91 6.96
14 2 Jacksonville Jaguars 88.07 81.23 6.84
15 4 Chicago Bears 89.48 88.70 0.78
16 2 Carolina Panthers 88.77 89.13 -0.36
17 2 Arizona Cardinals 93.49 95.79 -2.30
18 1 Kansas City Chiefs 88.85 92.46 -3.61
19 1 San Francisco 49ers 96.87 101.31 -4.44
20 1 Atlanta Falcons 87.50 92.50 -5.00
21 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 89.77 96.39 -6.62
22 = Dallas Cowboys 98.69 108.92 -10.23
23 = New York Giants 87.74 98.84 -11.10
24 1 New Orleans Saints 84.97 96.17 -11.20
25 1 Miami Dolphins 88.33 102.37 -14.04
26 3 Minnesota Vikings 75.03 90.31 -15.28
27 3 Las Vegas Raiders 83.50 99.14 -15.64
28 = Cincinnati Bengals 84.51 104.46 -19.95
29 2 Washington Commanders 87.24 107.74 -20.50
30 3 Cleveland Browns 70.46 91.41 -20.95
31 1 New York Jets 77.75 104.86 -27.11
32 = Tennessee Titans 76.27 106.03 -29.76

 

Edited by SCO96
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CanadianCat Veteran

CanadianCat

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5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Finally, some non-AI content. Thanks for the post!

I suspect that Tampa's differential might get a boost after two games against us.

No way. We are an up and down team. Meaning we will beat the breaks off Tampa this weekend. 

Get smoked by Seattle. Then beat Tampa again. 

It is written

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

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41 minutes ago, UNCrules2187 said:

Interesting that SF is one of the worst yet if they win out they will be the #1 seed in the NFC. 

They have had some issues at the QB spot this year. Purdy was injured and missed several games resulting in Mac Jones having to come off of the bench. Still, they have a solid 96.87 passer rating for the season. What's killing them is their pass defense. Their rating against the pass is 101.31! That's terrible when compared to the top pass defenses around the league.

The 49ers rank 26 out of 32 teams in stopping the pass. I know they have had some injury issues this year so that could explain why their pass defense is mediocre. Fortunately for them, they are able to be an exception to the historical trend.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating

Edited by SCO96
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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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26 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

They have had some issues at the QB spot this year. Purdy was injured and missed several games resulting in Mac Jones having to come off of the bench. Still, they have a solid 96.87 passer rating for the season. What's killing them is their pass defense. Their rating against the pass is 101.31! That's terrible when compared to the top pass defenses around the league.

The 49ers rank 26 out of 32 teams in stopping the pass. I know they have had some injury issues this year so that could explain why their pass defense is mediocre. Fortunately for them, they are able to be an exception to the historical trend.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating

The 49ers are having a Lions like season this year. The injuries are insane but they just keep winning, like the 2024 Lions did. 

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frankw Grand Master

frankw

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Posted (edited)

I appreciate the efforts you've made here with this data.

As concerned as I am about how efficient we are allowing opposing QB's to perform against us I think we can all agree a change of scenery at DC will go a long ways. Equally as important is the simple fact that we have shifted primarily to an offensive identity as a team and the investments of our resources strongly reflect that. If we cannot get better results out of this offense things need to change.

Edited by frankw
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