It is time to Consider the Likelihood of WR at #19

[MHS831]

We read each other and we bring together influences from a variety of sources--that is what makes this time of year great.  However, when you realize that the Panthers have talked to three (3) WRs expected to be there around #19, it must give us pause.

We all knew about Cooper (who has been heavily mocked to the Jets at #16) and Concepcion (deemed to be the perfect Z WR based on his skill set).  Then the other day, the Panthers quietly brought in another tall WR that seems to be less than a good fit at first glance.

First, a glance at the top 2 WRs the Panthers have shown interest in:

Cooper (projected to Jets at 16--could possibly go as early as 9)

Concepcion (considered to be a perfect fit for the Z WR (leaving Coker in the slot and TMac at X) has one major issue that has plagued the Panthers (see Legette, Xavier, TMac) in the area of drops.  Coker, on the other hand has never dropped anything in his entire life--including "in" or "by."  He can't even eavesdrop.   So, does that stat about Concepcion bother them?  It does me.  XL dropped 14% of his catchable balls as a rookie.  Last year, he found new ways to screw up, such as not knowing the boundares or lateralling to Rico for a big loss.  Yes, TMac was ROY and was terrific, but he had 8 drops, catching just under 60% of targets. Top NFL WRs are in the 70%-80% range--which is good news--it means that TMac can improve.  He caught 70 passes and dropped 8, meaning that his drop rate was about 10%. 

If you are counting, Denzel Boston is another first-round WR whose stock may have dropped a bit because he did not run a 40 during his pro day.  However, I see him as the #3 or #4 WR in this draft.  

 

Most people feel that Denzel Boston is in the TMac mold--a tall X.  Many of the same criticisms (about separation and speed) face Boston now. Although he is primarily viewed as a physical X (split end) receiver due to his 6'4", 212-pound frame, Boston has a weakness that makes him less valuable as the X but more valuable as a Z. Boston's ability to get off a jam at the LOS has been questioned--something an X does nearly every play. While his size and contested-catch ability make him a prototypical X, scouts and analysts note he has the versatility to move across the formation, including taking snaps in the Z or as a big slot, often helping to create mismatches. This would make him interchangeable with Coker.  Even if Legette does not come around, the Panthers would have a three-headed hydra at WR.  For much of last season, the Panthers had TMac, a goofy XL, and

• Versatility: Beyond being an X receiver, he is considered capable of playing Z or in the slot, allowing for movement across the formation.
• Physicality: With his size and strength, he can play on the outside, making him a strong red-zone target.
• Role Projection: While he primarily played on the boundary, his profile fits as a versatile receiver who can align in multiple spots to exploit matchups. 

His 6-foot-4 height and 209-pound weight are ideal for an outside receiver who can play both X and Z positions at the next level.

 

NFL Combine write-up:  Two-year starter with elite ball skills that should supersede athletic/speed limitations. A Puka Nacua comparison might feel strong, but like Nacua, Boston enters the draft with speed/separation concerns and outstanding competitive toughness. Boston gets off the line with good burst and maintains his top speed throughout the route. He could have issues beating press, but releases can also be schemed. He’s very skilled when it comes to winning jump balls and contested throws. Boston also knows how to win in the red zone. Acclimating to NFL competition could take a year, but Boston has the makeup to become a productive possession target with above-average red-zone value.

 

The Panthers have looked at three Z WRs who will be first-rounders in all likelihood.  They have a proven track record of bringing in first-round picks.  The tea leaves are strong in this case.  

here is Greg Cosell talking to the Bills analysts.  What he says about Boston (compares to TMac) is interesting (4:45).  https://www.buffalobills.com/video/greg-cosell-breaks-down-wr-draft-class-buffalo-bills

Screen Shot:  No share available.

"I don't think you have to just line him up inside (slot).  I think you can play him outside (X)."  That comment suggests he can play X, slot, or Z.  He then compares KC Concepcion vs. Boston--very different WRs.  In my view, Boston is more versatile.  Boston has excellent hands and he wins contested balls.  Red Zone--giving TMac someone on the other side of the field with the sure-handed Coker inside.  What Cosell says later (about Hurst, actually, but it applies to Concepcion): "You can teach guys to catch a ball."  

He talks about Concepcion, Boston, and Cooper in succession.  I get the feeling he is less impressed with Cooper than others are because he questions the competition--based on the Indiana system vs. zone etc.  I would also say that any WR who has a good WR on the other side of the field probably gets less defensive attention.

I should add that this also reflects poorly on XL, but I have said he would be a late bloomer.  I had no idea how much he did not know about football.  We shall see, but can you imaging how potent we'd be in 4 WR sets if he comes around?  How do you cover that?  (OT people are biting their lips right now)

THE DRAFT

It sure looks as though the Panthers are looking seriously at WR (the Z spot specifically) in the draft. 

Can you see any other position that has garnered this much attention for potential day 1 players?  I cannot.  

I am concerned about the OT situation, don't get me wrong, but Morgan is going to think, "I have a starter and I brought in a swing T (Forsythe).  Moton is a real concern.  We may look at RT later--and I know how others feel about it.  We could re-sign BC and he would be available after a month or two....I dunno.

Less than 2 weeks to go--just thought I would take a look at WR because it seems, based on available "evidence," that a WR will be our pick....again.

 

[tukafan21]

Drafting a WR in the 1st only guarantees one of T-Mac, Coker, or the new draft pick has zero chance of still being on the roster 4 years from now because they can’t all be paid at the same time.

Which is why a WR in the 1st makes no sense, if we do that, I’d be pissed if we don’t also trade Coker this offseason, and I have zero interest in trading him, so………

We know T-Mac is that dude, so unless the team has serious concerns about Coker taking the next step, WR makes so sense to me in the 1st

Edited April 10 by tukafan21

[Khyber53]

But I don't wanna. 

 

[firefox1234]

Panthers have met with all these potential 1st rounders to my knowledge: Faulk, McCoy, McDonald, Fano, Lomu, Proctor, KC, Cooper Jr., and Boston. I don’t think it’s a given that WR is the pick. I know we met with Faulk extensively at the combine, I won’t be surprised if we run to the podium if he’s at 19.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, firefox1234 said:

Panthers have met with all these potential 1st rounders to my knowledge: Faulk, McCoy, McDonald, Fano, Lomu, Proctor, KC, Cooper Jr., and Boston. I don’t think it’s a given that WR is the pick. I know we met with Faulk extensively at the combine, I won’t be surprised if we run to the podium if he’s at 19.

Yeah, nobody said it was a given, but the type of WR they are looking at in relation to where they expect to be drafted--can you find a position where we KNOW the Panthers have shown extended interest in three or more players who are expected to be drafted in round 1 at one specific position?  If you can, please post it for us to discuss.   I could not find one.

This is all about reading and anticipating what they might do--based on very limited information.  It is also to throw things out there to see who has an open mind or a closed mind.  Of course, this is speculative--it is not even what I want, to be honest.

[rebelrouser]

19 minutes ago, firefox1234 said:

Panthers have met with all these potential 1st rounders to my knowledge: Faulk, McCoy, McDonald, Fano, Lomu, Proctor, KC, Cooper Jr., and Boston. I don’t think it’s a given that WR is the pick. I know we met with Faulk extensively at the combine, I won’t be surprised if we run to the podium if he’s at 19.

We can add a Z WR later than the first round.  

[OldhamA]

Yes, it would be a clown move. 

[TD alt]

22 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Drafting a WR in the 1st only guarantees one of T-Mac, Coker, or the new draft pick has zero chance of still being on the roster 4 years from now because they can’t all be paid at the same time.

Which is why a WR in the 1st makes no sense, if we do that, I’d be pissed if we don’t also trade Coker this offseason, and I have zero interest in trading him, so………

We know T-Mac is that dude, so unless the team has serious concerns about Coker taking the next step, WR makes so sense to me in the 1st

You deal with what you have to deal with. You don't draft a receiver because you're scared you might have to pay them years down the road. At worst, you get something for them if you decide that you can't pay them. Some "problems" are nice to have. 

Unless Coker develops big time, he's not going to command top dollar. Sure, he might have to be paid, but it will likely be reasonable, and if it's not then you move on: you trade him, replace him and/or get your comp pick. 

 

We are going to draft a receiver. We may not do it day one, but it's going to happen. I'm hoping that regardless of the round, the receiver ends up great, and I don't give a rat's ass whether T-mac meets expectations quickly, or Coker exceeds expectations. It's not likely, but they can all be great together, and to try and limit any of them, literally or in our own minds, because we know that the bill may increase and is coming due is a fool's errand in my mind. Just deal with your riches. 

[TD alt]

8 minutes ago, rebelrouser said:

We can add a Z WR later than the first round.  

That can be said of any position.

Edited April 10 by TD alt

[tukafan21]

29 minutes ago, TD alt said:

You deal with what you have to deal with. You don't draft a receiver because you're scared you might have to pay them years down the road. At worst, you get something for them if you decide that you can't pay them. Some "problems" are nice to have. 

Unless Coker develops big time, he's not going to command top dollar. Sure, he might have to be paid, but it will likely be reasonable, and if it's not then you move on: you trade him, replace him and/or get your comp pick. 

 

We are going to draft a receiver. We may not do it day one, but it's going to happen. I'm hoping that regardless of the round, the receiver ends up great, and I don't give a rat's ass whether T-mac meets expectations quickly, or Coker exceeds expectations. It's not likely, but they can all be great together, and to try and limit any of them, literally or in our own minds, because we know that the bill may increase and is coming due is a fool's errand in my mind. Just deal with your riches. 

I have no problem drafting a WR, even as high as the 2nd, but I do have an issue with using a precious 1st rounder on it.

Another WR is a need, but we also have a lot of other needs, and the goal should always be to draft 1st rounders that you expect to be on the team for 10 years if they stay healthy.

In regards to Coker, one of two things happen.  He keeps getting better and becomes our legit #2 to T-Mac and we have to pay him accordingly, or he doesn’t.

If he does, then using that 1st rounder on a WR this year was dumb.  If he doesn’t, then drafting a WR in the 1st this year would be smart, but then so would trading Coker when his perceived value would be at its highest.

If we were already had a SB contending roster, then yes, a 1st Round WR to put us over the top makes sense, but we just have too many holes to fill to use it that way… again, unless the staff just doesn’t believe in Coker’s ability to become a true #2, which I think he really can be.

Edited April 10 by tukafan21

[MHS831]

52 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Drafting a WR in the 1st only guarantees one of T-Mac, Coker, or the new draft pick has zero chance of still being on the roster 4 years from now because they can’t all be paid at the same time.

Which is why a WR in the 1st makes no sense, if we do that, I’d be pissed if we don’t also trade Coker this offseason, and I have zero interest in trading him, so………

We know T-Mac is that dude, so unless the team has serious concerns about Coker taking the next step, WR makes so sense to me in the 1st

It is hard to say--if you look back at our roster from 4 years ago...In addition, we have a ton of money going into our OL right now (which might strengthen the argument to draft a tackle now)  The average NFL career is under 4 years, but the average NFL career for first rounders is 9.3 years, so most get 2 contracts.  

So having said that, I look at it as capital--if your concern (legit) becomes an issue, then you should have the same vision and trade that player and draft his replacement.  However, TMAC, Coker, and a rookie is not likely to be a problem for another 4 years--2030.  

But to your point, we have a situation right now that the OL has 2 guards and a RT around or over 30.  The make about $70m per year.   I like the perspective of reality you bring, however.  Is that a factor to morgan in 2026?

 

[tukafan21]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

It is hard to say--if you look back at our roster from 4 years ago...In addition, we have a ton of money going into our OL right now (which might strengthen the argument to draft a tackle now)  The average NFL career is under 4 years, but the average NFL career for first rounders is 9.3 years, so most get 2 contracts.  

So having said that, I look at it as capital--if your concern (legit) becomes an issue, then you should have the same vision and trade that player and draft his replacement.  However, TMAC, Coker, and a rookie is not likely to be a problem for another 4 years--2030.  

But to your point, we have a situation right now that the OL has 2 guards and a RT around or over 30.  The make about $70m per year.   I like the perspective of reality you bring, however.  Is that a factor to morgan in 2026?

 

It should be a facto, because while he needs to perform to keep his job, you still have to build with an eye to the future.

Where we will be drafting, there is a more than good chance of there being a player there at a position of more need, such as OT, LB, TE, S, or CB.

With all those holes, I just don’t like the idea of taking a player who will ensure one of him, T-Mac, or Coker won’t be here 4 years from now, and we all know it won’t be T-Mac who gets jettisoned.

So either believe in Coker or don’t, keep him and draft another position or draft a WR and trade him, don’t straddle the middle and hamstring us by leaving more holes while leaving us a huge problem a couple years from now.

[tukafan21]

11 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

It is hard to say--if you look back at our roster from 4 years ago...In addition, we have a ton of money going into our OL right now (which might strengthen the argument to draft a tackle now)  The average NFL career is under 4 years, but the average NFL career for first rounders is 9.3 years, so most get 2 contracts.  

So having said that, I look at it as capital--if your concern (legit) becomes an issue, then you should have the same vision and trade that player and draft his replacement.  However, TMAC, Coker, and a rookie is not likely to be a problem for another 4 years--2030.  

But to your point, we have a situation right now that the OL has 2 guards and a RT around or over 30.  The make about $70m per year.   I like the perspective of reality you bring, however.  Is that a factor to morgan in 2026?

 

Oh, and it likely becomes an issue in 2 years, not 4.

in 2 years T-Mac will be eligible for an extension while Coker will also need a new deal himself, not to mention if he rookie WR pans out, he’ll want a new contract the following offseason himself.

So you can’t then pay both T-Mac and Coker while not trading that 3rd WR.  Just like you can’t pay one of those two and then have the same problem the next offseason with the younger WR and whichever don’t get the contract the year before.

If the front office believes in their ability it judge talent, then you draft with an eye to the future and trust that belief.

I again point to the Bengals, it’s not even about paying for two high end WRs, other team get away with it just fine.  It’s needing to pay for them in the same offseason that creates big problems.

Edited April 10 by tukafan21

[Shocker]

@MHS831 what are your thoughts on Lemon.  I think there is a chance he is there at 19.