An Offensive Tackle for the Long Term, but....

[MHS831]

In fairness to those who want an OT in round 1, I thought I would take a look at the concerns about the group then get into the wisdom of drafting an OT in round 1.  The thing to keep in mind:  This is a thin tackle class at the top, possibly the weakest since 2015, and that context matters.  A team in desperate need will reach and probably force that player into a starting role.  I wrote/put this together with knowledge of Huddle perspectives.  So I decided to take a look at the OT group as a whole and break them down as ranked by most sites.  I am not high on the top of the draft; some are, predicting as many as 7 OTs being drafted in the first round.  That could be more about need than quality, however.  According to Fansided there are 18 OTs in the top 150 players ranked (April 6). Here, I will demonstrate how the top of the draft is flawed, but I think there is some developmental OT depth later that would be ideal for the Panther's needs. However, this is about looking for a T early in the draft.  In my view, the OTs that have a chance to be first-round picks are mentioned here.  After these seven, I see a drop off.

The Shopping List: 

Most people have Francis Mauigoa their number one Offensive Tackle in the draft.  There is one problem.  He's a guard, he just doesn't know it yet, based on his body type.  Secondly, he is a right tackle at the moment, and with 33" arms (below borderline for a tackle but not such a detriment for a Right tackle), so there are issues that could impact how early he might go.  I think he will fall, but not sure how far.  Ideally, if he is to stay at OT, I think he'd be most appealing for the Falcons, with their southpaw QB.  However, it should tell you a bit about the class if the #1 OT is a RT/G. Regardless, the chances are very slim that he slips out of the top 12.

After the #1 OT (RT/G) from MIami, then the #2 ranked OT on most boards is Utah's RIGHT TACKLE Spencer Fano.  With 32" arms, he also seems destined for Guard. If you look at successful offensive tackles in the NFL with arms shorter than 34", only 35% of starting OTs have arms shorter than 34".  Only two have arms that are 32", and they are not pro bowlers.  While it can be done, is drafting a player to fill a need at OT worth a first rounder when the player comes in at a disadvantage?  It is important to understand the difference between pass blocking in college (shotgun).  For this reason, I expect Mauigoa and Fano to drop--Fano more than Mauigoa.  I see Fano going in the top 12 also.

In my view, the best tackle value in this draft is perhaps Kadyn Proctor, a Left tackle (finally?).  Proctor has more issues than his weight (He is best around 350 lbs but has been as high as 390).  Proctor has a ton of upside; with a ridiculous vertical (32.5") and 40 time (5.2) for a 350+ lb man, but there are concerns.  Another OT with sub 34" arms (33 1/8"). Proctor is beaten with underneath pressure, requiring him to shift his weight.  Proctor's tools and SEC experience will keep him in the first-round conversation despite the concerns. The ceiling is a starting left tackle who anchors a line for years.  The floor, as with the first 2 OTs, is a kick inside to Guard.  Getting there requires weight discipline, better hand technique to offset the arm length, and real development in pass protection. The raw material is rare enough that the investment makes sense. Proctor is a bit of a wildcard, but some see him as a top 20 pick, so he could be in play for the Panthers.  I think he would make a good RT, but if he fails, he could be a guard for a decade.  I am just not a fan of a big man with a weight control issue when he is playing a sport that practices 2 hours daily.

It is possible that the first OT taken in the NFL draft is Georgia Left Tackle Monroe Freeling. (Arms over 34" !!!!) Many Huddlers have been praising him for a while--even back when he was mocking in round 2.  Freeling is a project, however.  He is made to play OT in a wide zone blocking scheme (about 75% of NFL teams run it to some degree).  However, his run blocking is below average.   NFL Draft Buzz describes his potential this way: "The movement ability is genuinely rare for a player his size, and the improvement arc across 2025 suggests he responds to coaching. A team that can give him a developmental window behind a veteran, add the right weight, and pair him with an offensive line coach who will drill the details has a chance to develop a long-term left tackle. The tools are there. The question is patience."  So if a team needs an immediate starter and that team runs more gap scheme blocking--he will bust.  In other words, he needs some time (which would make him ideal for Carolina) with a good OL coach and he needs the right scheme (the Panthers run the wide-zone blocking scheme).  I would go as far as to say this:  If Freeling is there at 19, it could be a great fit in Carolina for the reasons already stated, but he is a project.  I think he is drafted top 16.

If Freeling, the only true, "sure fire" OT mentioned so far is gone, Utah's Caleb Lomu is another Tackle (left) with arms shorter than 34" (33 3/8").  Except for the shortish arms, Lomu is very similar to Monroe Freeling. Lomu ran a sub 5.0 40.  He has great hands and feet, but lacks core strength.  Lomu has only 27 college games and 1,620 career snaps under his belt. His pass blocking jumped meaningfully from his first year starting to his second, which tells you he absorbs coaching and applies it quickly. A team that drafts him late in the first round is not buying a finished product. They are buying a left tackle with rare movement skills and legitimate blind-side protection ability who needs a year or two of NFL strength and conditioning work to round out the run game and shore up the anchor. That is a bet worth making, because when the body catches up to the feet and the hands, the result could be a fixture at the most premium position on the offensive line for a decade.  A good fit for Carolina because he can develop for a season. In my view, Lomu might be the best chance we have for a LT candidate, but if the Panthers want him, they may have to leapfrog Detroit (17th pick) if not sooner.  There is a chance Detroit goes after an edge, but T is their biggest need.

Essentially, the top 5 OT candidates are either closet guards or developmental OTs.  This is why I have shifted my offensive tackle focus to more realistic and practical options.  Frankly, I have two RIGHT TACKLES left before the talent level rolls off a cliff.  It is very possible, since 9 teams claim OT (a popular position) before pick 19, we could be looking past the top 5:

Many OT rankings have Blake Miller rated too low.  He has the same deficiencies as those rated higher, but he has more experience (54 straight starts) and has shown positive progress throughout his time at Clemson.  With 34"+ arms, very sound pass protection due to elite lateral agility and recovery speed, Miller is ready for that phase of pass protection in the NFL.  His issue, as others rated higher, is run blocking, but in a wide zone scheme on the right side, that weakness is not as critical as it would be if he were asked to drive block or protect gaps.  In my view, Miller would be an ideal fit here to play behind Moton, but I do not see him as a swing OT.  In essence, if Miller is drafted, he is Moton's replacement--insurance (Moton's knee) in 2026, the full-time starter in 2027 at a 10th of the salary Moton has commanded during the year they probably give Bryce a big deal.  So if the eye is on the cap and future OL starters, Miller would be an excellent pick--but I think we could trade back and get him.  The stunt recognition, the foot quickness, the ability to recover when initially displaced, all of it is backed by four years of data and thousands of snaps. An offensive line coach will feel comfortable penciling him in as a starter on the right side early in his rookie deal. The run game is where the work needs to happen. His pad level, hand placement, and ability to move defenders at the point of attack fall short of what you want from a starting NFL tackle. He will get shed at the second level, and there is no evidence he becomes a people-mover. But these are technique issues rather than athletic limitations, which matters. Zone-heavy rushing schemes that ask tackles to reach and seal rather than drive defenders off the ball will get the most from Miller (Carolina, for example). His lateral agility is built for that style, and his pass protection floor gives him real value as a dependable right tackle with a clear ceiling if the run game catches up.

It is doubtful that Max Iheanachor is better than Miller, but many have him rated above Miller because his ceiling is perhaps higher.  His issue is discipline which could be related to bad technique; he had 16 penalties and several protection breakdowns throughout 2025, and pass pro, like the others, is his strength. Tell me if this sounds familiar (it describes several of the higher-rated OTs):  "The ideal landing spot is a zone-heavy offense with a strong offensive line coach and enough veteran presence on the line that Iheanachor doesn't have to carry the unit from day one. If he can sit behind an established starter or at least split time during his rookie year while refining his hand technique and protection calls, the payoff could be enormous. His physical tools and competitive fire put him in rare company among the tackles in this class. He is not the most polished blocker available, but he might have the highest ceiling of any of them. In a draft cycle thin on blue-chip tackle talent, that combination of traits and trajectory makes him a legitimate value pick." (Draft Buzz)

Repeat this statement:  "The weakest OT class since 2015." Nine (9) teams pick ahead of the Panthers that list OT as a need. All of them have issues that make it difficult to draft an OT when there are so many needs for starters or key rotational players (DT, S, CB, WR, LB, C, TE).  However, if you look beyond 2026, you would realize that the Panthers are going to create a $50m or so cap hit if they keep Bryce. That means Moton (knee, age) is likely gone.  Ickey may never return to form.  Wallace is a rental in all likelihood, and Forsythe lets more people by than a Walmart greeter.  I see the logic in taking a a right tackle for 2027, but do you do it with the first overall pick?  I would love Freeling, but he will be gone.  I would love Lomu, but we have Wallace and Ickey could come back.  He has only played LT, so I am not confident that he could backup Moton.  Miller is the most practical pick, and if you could trade back to get him, you could add a pick to soften the blow of spending your first rounder on a reserve project.

Disclaimer:  I am very "pro OL" when it comes to the draft, but I oppose using that pick for the fourth or fifth best option in a notoriously weak class, so I am biased.  I strongly oppose drafting a T in round 1 that possibly projects to guard, or has physical limitations that make his chance for success more difficult.  We are very fortunate that Morgan landed a starting LT in free agency.  We are in a bind with Ickey's future and salary in doubt, Moton's knee, and our only free agent is suspect.   I encourage you to be very cautious about rating college OL based on film--you really have to look at the physical attributes. Demonstrations of coachability, agility, strength, and work ethic.  Blocking when the QB is under center is different.  NFL defenses are very different.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11 by MHS831

[OldhamA]

Stopped reading at Mauigoa being a Guard.

Tell that to all of the DEs he buried in College. 

[Captain Morgan]

best write up I've read across any platform this draft season, thanks

[csx]

I feel like you approach this as if the decision on what position to draft is made in stone before draft day. They decide based on their assessments and who is actually available in real time, not whats predicted to happen. 

Edited April 11 by csx

[TD alt]

We needed this. Many Huddlers are going to disagree to varied extents, but the 2026 OT class has more question marks than exclamation points. There is a higher than normal chance that someone is going to overdrafted. But, if you have conviction that the guy will be a starter this year at the position you are drafting him for, you have to pull the trigger. 

It's possible, but I wouldn't necessarily say it's likely. It's going to depend upon the guy. Canales basically said that we're not going to draft for depth in the first round (and he said it with what I consider was low-key disdain).

[csx]

3 minutes ago, TD alt said:

We needed this. Many Huddlers are going to disagree to varied extents, but the 2026 OT class has more question marks than exclamation points. There is a higher than normal chance that someone is going to overdrafted. But, if you have conviction that the guy will be a starter this year at the position you are drafting him for, you have to pull the trigger. 

It's possible, but I wouldn't necessarily say it's likely. It's going to depend upon the guy. Canales basically said that we're not going to draft for depth in the first round (and he said it with what I consider was low-key disdain).

So why would he draft a WR?

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, OldhamA said:

Stopped reading at Mauigoa being a Guard.

Tell that to all of the DEs he buried in College. 

You would have stopped reading anyway.  It was long and the lexile level was up there (way high).  They will give him a shot at T, but many project him to guard.  

[Growl]

15 minutes ago, csx said:

I feel like you approach this as if the decision on what position to draft is made in stone before draft day. They decide based on their assessments and who is actually available in real time, not whats predicted to happen. 

thanks for letting us know

 

hear that everyone? Shut it down, turns out our discussion doesn’t mean everything 

Edited April 11 by Growl

[MHS831]

14 minutes ago, csx said:

I feel like you approach this as if the decision on what position to draft is made in stone before draft day. They decide based on their assessments and who is actually available in real time, not whats predicted to happen. 

Understood.  Based on information I have been reading.  Not really my thoughts--but a synthesis of comments--some may be poker comments and some may be a result of over analysis, but it is what it is. 

[OldhamA]

3 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

You would have stopped reading anyway.  It was long and the lexile level was up there (way high).  They will give him a shot at T, but many project him to guard.  

You're clearly high on your own supply. 

[MHS831]

16 minutes ago, TD alt said:

We needed this. Many Huddlers are going to disagree to varied extents, but the 2026 OT class has more question marks than exclamation points. There is a higher than normal chance that someone is going to overdrafted. But, if you have conviction that the guy will be a starter this year at the position you are drafting him for, you have to pull the trigger. 

It's possible, but I wouldn't necessarily say it's likely. It's going to depend upon the guy. Canales basically said that we're not going to draft for depth in the first round (and he said it with what I consider was low-key disdain).

Yeah, I just really enjoy this time of year and all the tea leaf reading, etc.  Some attack any idea that is not consistent with their own--I knew the critics would emerge because that is what they do--much easier to critique than create, but this really is based on what I was able to round up--I tried to take it from the angle that if we are going to draft a T, and we probably all agree that is a need, these are the items on the shelf and here are the "buyer beware" warnings.  These are good players, no doubt.

[MHS831]

2 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

You're clearly high on your own supply. 

STOP HURTING MY FEELINGS!!!  

[MHS831]

50 minutes ago, Captain Morgan said:

best write up I've read across any platform this draft season, thanks

Thanks Bro.  

[TD alt]

19 minutes ago, csx said:

So why would he draft a WR?

Because maybe, just maybe, a WR is the BPA. I know, it's simple, but it's a long-standing philosophy.

The first round has several solid options. If there is a run on tackles (which there probably will be at the top), then you have to pivot.