Kiper's 3/9 Mock

[mav1234]

I don't put any stock in it, but considering we've gotten mock posts from just about everyone, figured we should update Kiper's take. I'll list his first 5 picks and his reason for them:

So here it is:

1) Carolina - Blaine Gabbert

There's a thought process here that goes beyond need. For one, Gabbert impressed in Indy, and his pro day next week will help determine if he has the potential to land here. Two, I expect any labor deal that gets worked out will create a rookie salary scale that limits the massive bonuses for top picks, making it easier to trade up and down in the draft, which has become increasingly difficult. So it makes sense for Carolina to project that it could take one of the top quarterbacks and open up the trade options, in essence, saying, "To guarantee a shot at the one you prefer, talk to us." Lastly, while I still believe in Jimmy Clausen's chances given his youth, Ron Rivera could not be blamed for targeting his own vision of a franchise quarterback with a pick here or via free agency. It's a leverage position now, but also a potential pick. Part of it is up to Gabbert.

My Take: I like Gabbert but this is a reach. If he wows at his Pro Day it's very possible but I just feel that we need a player who can make an impact now and while I do think Gabbert will have an impact sooner than Cam Newton, I'm still not convinced that even with working in private workouts in his pro style drops etc (http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2011-02-28/made-for-this-blaine-gabbert-has-spent-years-preparing-for-the-nfl) will be enough. Still, of the quarterbacks, he's the one I like the most.

2) Denver - Nick Fairley

The Broncos are between defensive systems, have major needs along the defensive line where their ability to stop the run was a problem as was their pass rush, and they have a shot to take the best defensive lineman in a remarkably deep class. While many saw John Fox and John Elway watching the Auburn pro day closely, I believe that more of the conversations were focused on Fairley. He is scheme-versatile, very athletic for his size (which is back to 297 pounds as of yesterday) and a devastating penetrator at tackle, he helps immediately.

My Take: I was very impressed with how quick Nick Fairley was with his hands and feet after the first couple drills yesterday. While he is a bit smaller than many expected he still could be a major impact player in the right defense. Going to Denver he'll have every opportunity to be great.

3) Buffalo - Marcell Dareus

Many were surprised at Dareus' measurements at the combine, where he weighed in at 319 pounds. And while Chan Gailey says his 2011 defense could resemble a hybrid -- either a 3-4 or a 4-3 depending on available personnel and matchups -- Dareus is a player who can fit any scheme well. With great quickness for his size, he can take up blockers and still provide a push as a 3-4 defensive end, perhaps solidifying that scheme for the Bills. A safe pick at No. 3.

My Take: I don't agree with this pick because I believe the Bills will go after Cam Newton if he's on the board... but then again, I think Dareus is a better prospect for a team that is in need defensively like the Bills are. Fitzpatrick may not be the best quarterback but he's shown some significant improvement with decent coaching and I some Bills fans are still very high on him (...others want to run him out of town).

4) Cincy - Cam Newton

In 2003, Marvin Lewis' first year as head coach with the Bengals, the franchise drafted Carson Palmer, and had the discipline to start Jon Kitna all season and let Palmer learn the system while waiting to step in as the franchise quarterback. With Palmer on his way out, Lewis could do something similar in 2011, drafting Newton, letting him take a year to learn the system and plugging in an interim solution in the meantime. The Bengals could also consider moving this pick, similar to Carolina's position with Gabbert.

My Take: The pick makes sense if they're losing Palmer. If they could convince him to stay, I think AJ Green would make the most sense... but I don't think they can do that.

5)Arizona - Von Miller

I'm sticking with this selection from the last mock. Joey Porter won't be back and Miller would represent an immediate pass-rushing upgrade on the edge of Arizona's 3-4 scheme. Miller, who has come a long way since a junior year in which he was considered mainly a sack artist, could certainly provide a pass-rushing presence for the Cardinals, but also has a great deal of athleticism and should hold up for three downs in this system.

My Take: They would have loved to take a quarterback here but Von Miller makes a certain amount of sense, too. But when your pass defense is as awful as the Cardinals was last year, why wouldn't you go for Patrick Peterson?

The rest is at : http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/news/story?page=KiperMockDraft3.0

[Carolina Husker]

Gabbert is going to crush it at his Pro Day.

[TheRealDeal]

I still don't want him

[mav1234]

Gabbert is going to crush it at his Pro Day.

I expect him to, as well. I like him, but I don't want to take him at #1. Still, if we're going to drat a QB, kinda hope its him.

[Mr. Scot]

I still don't want him

Same here.

[pantherfan81]

Expected. McShay did a 180 on Gabbert today apparently. They'll change their minds a couple more times I'm sure.

[countryboi]

i just dont know what anyone sees in Gabbert...he seems very alex smith to me if we draft him i would root for him just like i did clausen

[mav1234]

Expected. McShay did a 180 on Gabbert today apparently. They'll change their minds a couple more times I'm sure.

how so? His latest tweets said he thinks he's the best QB in the draft class.

[pantherfan81]

how so? His latest tweets said he thinks he's the best QB in the draft class.

I guess McShay said on ESPN that he now thinks Gabbert doesn't have the pocket presence he thought & average deep ball accuracy. Something to that effect, some draft analysts on twitter are now bashing him. Haven't seen it, I'm gonna try to find it later. Search McShay on twitter. Still has him best qb though.

[countryboi]

I guess McShay said on ESPN that he now thinks Gabbert doesn't have the pocket presence he thought & average deep ball accuracy. Something to that effect, some draft analysts on twitter are now bashing him. Haven't seen it, I'm gonna try to find it later. Search McShay on twitter.

wow mcshay has been on gabbert's nuts since day one what has gabbert done to change that?

[mav1234]

I guess McShay said on ESPN that he now thinks Gabbert doesn't have the pocket presence he thought & average deep ball accuracy. Something to that effect, some draft analysts on twitter are now bashing him. Haven't seen it, I'm gonna try to find it later. Search McShay on twitter. Still has him best qb though.

ehh, not exactly. He's always said he didn't have great pocket presence. That's the biggest knock on him.

McShay13 Todd McShay

Gil Brandt told me at combine to look into Gabbert's completion % on longer throws. I knew it wasn't good based off tape study...

McShay13 Todd McShay

Gabbert completed just 38-percent of throws beyond 15 yards in conference games. It's a concern. Pocket presence is inconsistent, as well.

cShay13 Todd McShay

But Gabbert can improve both areas. He has the arm and natural accuracy. Needs more reps/work on trajectory. He's not Ryan or Bradford...

McShay13 Todd McShay

But Gabbert is most complete QB prospect in this class. He might go behind Newton but he should be the best QB from 2011 class.

[Icege]

Buddy of mine that makes deliveries to AJ Green's grandmother's house told me that she said he is going to Cleveland if he doesnt get taken earlier.

Take it with a grain of Saltman (post detonation of course), but I found it interesting :D

[mav1234]

Many, many people are mocking him to Cleveland.

[Carolina Husker]

ehh, not exactly. He's always said he didn't have great pocket presence. That's the biggest knock on him.

McShay13 Todd McShay

Gil Brandt told me at combine to look into Gabbert's completion % on longer throws. I knew it wasn't good based off tape study...

McShay13 Todd McShay

Gabbert completed just 38-percent of throws beyond 15 yards in conference games. It's a concern. Pocket presence is inconsistent, as well.

cShay13 Todd McShay

But Gabbert can improve both areas. He has the arm and natural accuracy. Needs more reps/work on trajectory. He's not Ryan or Bradford...

McShay13 Todd McShay

But Gabbert is most complete QB prospect in this class. He might go behind Newton but he should be the best QB from 2011 class.

That's pretty fair criticism from McShay and is what I've said for a while now will be Gabbert's issue at the next level: his pocket presence is pretty shady. He gets flustered pretty easily under center or if the pocket collapses out of the gun. Some of that is because his Oline was pretty bad, and some of it is technique.

The nice part for Gabbert is that he won't have to worry about that at the Pro Day. Everything he's doing there will work for him because he won't be under pressure. That's why I expect his stock to absolutely sky rocket because it will be solely about his athleticism and arm which he's got in spades.