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Draft Nervousness

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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Mr. Scot

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A while back I talked about things that make me nervous when they come up with the Panthers. Why? Because of history. Certain situations just haven't generally yielded good results for this team. As the draft draws nearer, those things start creeping into my head again.

Here are the ones that come to mind...

PICKING BETWEEN TWO PROSPECTS

When the Panthers have faced a choice between two draft prospects with similar grades, they've had an unfortunate tendency to pick the wrong one. Examples:

1995: Kerry Collins over Steve McNair

1996: Tshimanga Biakabutuka over Eddie George

1998: Jason Peter over Vonnie Holliday

2002: DeShaun Foster over Clinton Portis

2007: Dwayne Jarrett over Steve Smith (USC)

In fairness, they haven't always been wrong in this spot. Picking DeAngelo Williams over LenDale White in 2006 was definitely the right call. Likewise, the 2002 selection of Julius Peppers over QB Joey Harrington was the correct one. And you could argue that the recent choice of Jonathan Stewart over Rashard Mendenhall has panned out (though objectively, that argument isn't completely settled just yet).

Why is this a concern now? Because if the Panthers decide to take a quarterback, they'll likely be choosing between two guys, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert. Which one is the wrong one? Don't know. I just hope whichever one it is, we don't take him.

CATCHING A FALLING STAR

Sometimes teams catch a break with a guy inexplicably falling in the draft. The Packers definitely lucked out with Aaron Rodgers, as did the Bills with Thurman Thomas. In Panthers history though? When a guy has fallen to them, they've tended to find out - a little too late - that there was a reason why he fell. The examples here:

1997: Rae Carruth falls to #27

Other Available Players: Trevor Price, Jamie Sharper, Tiki Barber, Derrick Mason

2000: Rashard Anderson falls to #23

Other Available Players: Ahmed Plummer, Chris Hovan, Anthony Becht, Jerry Porter, Jason Webster

2009: Everette Brown falls to #43

Other Available Players: Mohamed Massaquoi, Andy Levitre, LeSean McCoy

2010: Jimmy Clausen falls to #48

Other Available Players: Taylor Mays, Javier Arenas, Carlos Dunlap

In fairness, Brown and Clausen still have a chance to show they can contribute under the new staff. And again, not every example is bad. Nobody expected Ryan Kalil to drop as far as he did, and the Panthers got a steal. Likewise, Greg Hardy has looked good (at least so far).

This year, there's not as much chance of this early unless the team trades down, way down. In the unlikely event that DaQuan Bowers lasts until our third round pick though, I'll probably be nervous.

TRADING AWAY HIGH PICKS

And here's the final area where history hasn't been kind. Let's go straight to the examples of what was traded, what was received, and what could have been:

1999 Draft

Redskins got: #5 Overall Pick, traded to Saints who got Ricky Williams.

Panthers got: Sean Gilbert

Could have had: Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, Chris McAllister, John Tait

2000 Draft

Redskins got: #12 pick, traded up to get Chris Samuels

Panthers got: This one also went for Gilbert

Could have had: John Abraham, Julian Peterson, Chad Pennington, Shaun Alexander

2008 Draft

Eagles got: #43 pick (traded to Minnesota, took DeSean Jackson at #59) and #109 pick, used on Mike McGlynn

Panthers got: #19 pick, used on Jeff Otah

Could have had: Jackson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice (2nd) Tashard Choice, Ryan Torrain, Tim Hightower, Owen Schmitt (4th)

2009 Draft

Eagles got: #28, traded up to get Jeremy Maclin

Panthers got: The other pick traded for Otah

Could have had: Ziggy Hood, James Laurinaitis, Brian Robiskie, LeSean McCoy

2010 Draft

49ers got: 2010 #17 pick, used to select Mike Iupati

Panthers got: 2009 #43, used to pick Everette Brown

Could have had: Maurkice Pouncey, Jermaine Gresham, Dan Williams, The Golden Calf of Bristol (if you're a The Golden Calf of Bristol fan)

2011 Draft

New England got: 2011 #33 pick overall, the top pick of the second round

Panthers got: 2010 #89, used to take Armanti Edwards

Could have had: yet to be determined

Now, what does everybody and their brother want the Panthers to do this year? Trade down. And yeah, I'm on that bandwagon too. Sadly though, when you look at who's been taken with some of the high picks that this team has traded away, and who they could have had if they'd kept those picks, it hurts.

It should be remembered that not all of this falls on Marty Hurney. Only things from 2002 forward are on him. As I've said before, I still have faith in Hurney. Plus, as the commercial disclaimer says, past history is not necessarily an indicator of future performance.

But it is still enough to make you nervous :(

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Pox 08

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How does Carolina rank vs. the other teams with round selections since Hurney took over?

I think Carolina has been one of the best in the NFL.

Go get Cam, Marty!!!

I cringe thinking about all the research (from every team) that will go into getting that information.

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