Early 1st Round Mock

[Catalyst]

Playoff team order is based on my playoff predictions:

01. Chiefs: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - Andy Reid's hiring all but locks up this pick. Geno Smith is a great fit for Reid's offense and Andy has always put a premium on the QB position so this pick seems like more of a sure bet than ever.

02. Jaguars: Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia - If only there were a QB worth taking here. Since there isn't, the Jags go pure BPA. Unless injury concerns push him down the board, that appears to be Jarvis Jones, who would be a good fit in any scheme.

03. Raiders: Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah - Looking down the list it seems unlikely the Raiders could find a trade partner unless they're willing to accept a lowball offer. Instead, they go the obvious route and take the best player available who also happens to fill a big need with Richard Seymour on the way out.

04. Eagles: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M - This seems like a very unpredictable pick given the uncertainty of the Eagles' coaching situation, but Joeckel is pretty clearly the BPA and the Eagles definitely need to shore up the left tackle spot regardless of who the QB is going to be.

05. Lions: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M - The Lions have a lot of needs from OL to CB to RB to likely linebacker as well, but Cliff Avril will almost certainly cost too much to retain so the need that most closely matches value in this scenario is for a premiere pass rusher.

06. Browns: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State - The Browns are yet another team with a need at QB, but they also have a young one who could still be decent with the right coaching. Besides, there isn't one really worth taking this early so they opt to upgrade their pass rush as well. I'm not a big fan of Werner and FSU pass rushers haven't exactly blown the league away, but there's little question Werner will be a hot commodity on draft day.

07. Cardinals: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan - This could be a landing spot for a QB - either Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, or Tyler Wilson, but the fact is they can almost certainly get one of them in the 2nd round or by trading back into the 1st. Instead, they go with a blindside protector in Fisher.

08. Ravens (f/BUF): Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame - QB is obviously a huge need for the Bills, but with Doug Marone being brought in and hiring his offensive coordinator from Syracuse it stands to reason that there's a solid chance they opt for Ryan Nassib in the 2nd round to complete the package and they can get a solid WR with the pick they'll acquire from the Ravens here. Baltimore needs a replacement for Ray Lewis and Te'o seems like their best bet as there really aren't a lot of linebackers later in round 1 or even in round 2 that look like can't miss prospects. Te'o had a bad game against Alabama, but if the Bengals can turn Vontaze Burfict into a stud, Te'o will certainly get the benefit of the doubt thanks to his outstanding season.

09. Buccaneers (f/NYJ): DeMarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama - The Bucs see Milliner slipping and realize that both the Titans and Chargers need help at CB - and an outside chance the Dolphins will take one as well - and that they could miss out on both Milliner and Banks if they stay put at 13. Instead, they trade up with the Jets to secure the top corner in the draft.

10. Titans: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State - They'd obviously prefer if Milliner fell to them here, but the Bucs' trade leaves them with Banks instead, which is not a bad 2nd option at the position.

11. Chargers: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama - The Chargers desperately need to upgrade their offensive line, preferably at tackle first. However, with no viable tackle prospects on the board they instead opt to bring in the best guard prospect in quite some time. Both starting guards in San Diego are set to hit free agency, so this will be a big need as well.

12. Dolphins: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee - The Dolphins also need to upgrade their offensive line, but the value isn't there. They also need to add playmakers in general on offense and Patterson is a guy I see surging up draft boards once he has a chance to work out.

13. Jets (f/TB): Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU - The Jets need a QB, but it would cost them a ton to cut Mark Sanchez and they also badly need help for their pass rush. Ansah has been compared to JPP and Rex Ryan would surely love to add that sort of tattoo... er, player.

14. Panthers: Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama - The Panthers address arguably their biggest need and fill the nose tackle position by taking a guy who is rising and could overtake Jonathan Hankins as the #2 nose tackle prospect. He's certainly much more consistent and has played at a higher level against tougher competition in the SEC.

15. Saints: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri - Whereas the Panthers need a nose tackle the Saints opt here to go with the better pass rushing DT in Richardson. Not that they couldn't also use a run-stuffer, but there's a deeper group of nose tackles in this class and they can address that later.

16. Colts (f/STL): Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State - The Colts don't have a true NT on the roster and with Jesse Williams off the board and Johnathan Hankins not likely to get past Pittsburgh, they move up to ensure they get their guy.

17. Steelers: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia - The Steelers lose out when Indy trades up ahead of them to take Hankins, so they opt instead to solidify the inside linebacker position.

18. Cowboys: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU - Anthony Spencer is a free agent soon and Dion Jordan has injury concerns, putting Mingo in place as the top 3-4 edge rusher on the board.

19. Giants: Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU - The Giants love drafting pass rushers and with Osi almost certainly moving on and Justin Tuck having a bad season they go for Montgomery.

20. Bears: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame - They need a left tackle, but they can get one in the 2nd round as good as anyone still on the board here. Instead, they add a TE. Apparently Lovie Smith was fired for not being able to build an offense; it seems likely the Bears will add more weapons on that side of the ball.

21. Bengals: Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina - Some would say this is a reach, but I don't think so. The 'law firm' is solid, but Bernard is stud in waiting and since when is having two solid backs a bad thing? This pick would give the Bengals their own 'triplets'.

22. Rams (f/WAS): Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas - The Rams defense is pretty good, but they do need an upgrade at safety. Imagine how dangerous they'd be with those corners and a playmaking safety behind them.

23. Cardinals (f/MIN): Matt Barkley, QB, USC - The Vikings need a WR, but the position is pretty deep and the difference between taking one here and at the top of the 2nd is almost zero. The Cardinals will want to jump ahead of other teams at the top of round 2 and get their pick of the QB's with only Geno Smith having been drafted. Barkley could slip out of the 1st round, but the potential is there having once been considered 1st overall material.

24. Rams (f/IND): Jonathan Cooper, OG/C, UNC - They need help along the OL in general and Cooper can play guard and center. They'd probably prefer a right tackle here, but the value isn't there and Cooper is a better overall prospect than any of the tackles left. Dallas Thomas would also fit the bill and he can play tackle as well, but Cooper is the better overall player, IMO.

25. Bills (f/BAL): Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor - The Bills move down and likely pick up at least a 2nd rounder to do so. They badly need a WR opposite Stevie Johnson and there are several available who could fill that role. It's possible they go QB here, but as I said, I see them taking Ryan Nassib in the 2nd round.

26. 49ers: Matt Elam, S, Florida - The 49ers are in pretty good shape, but Dashon Goldson is a free agent and Donte Whitner isn't anything special. Matt Elam has elite potential and that defense would be even scarier with him in the mix, especially if it's beside Goldson rather than replacing him.

27. Texans: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU - Brian Cushing is coming off a torn ACL and Bradie James is a free agent and not a long-term solution anyway.

28. Falcons: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama - A bit of a reach here, but Lacy is just the type of back the Falcons need to replace Michael Turner and it's unlikely they'd be able to get him by waiting until the 2nd round.

29. Seahawks: Keenan Allen, WR, California - They've got Russell Wilson now, but still need an upgrade at WR. There are several options here but Allen is the best value.

30. Patriots: Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech - The Pats badly need WR help with Wes Welker. If he leaves, they'll have an even worse group of WR's. Rogers has a lot of talent, but also character concerns. The Pats have shown that they don't mind overlooking that fact, however, if the talent is there.

31. Packers: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee - With Greg Jennings with one foot out the door, the Packers have to look at taking a WR here. There are several options, but I went with the Hunter in this scenario.

32. Broncos: Barrett Jones, OG/C, Alabama - The Broncos could use help at guard and center and Barrett Jones is just the kind of OL John Fox would love to add to the mix.

[BigSyke]

naww ill take e-fish,c-war and even t-will/c-pat/d-hop/j-hunt over s-rich. that dline jus need a bigg run stuffer that maybe you find in the 4 or 5 round. the dline is the best group on the field besides cam and the wrs.

cam is taking to many late hits and he almost got hurt bad.....so oline is first for me.

[Jackofalltrades]

I don't understand the hate on Dwan. Why can't he be more than just a stop-gap? He played very well this season after changing systems and positions. I think he could be a starter here for the next 2-3 seasons and that's well beyond what you get from a "stop-gap" guy.

Dwan regularly faced double teams this year, even with Ron on the line beside of him. He's a lot better against the run than people want to give him credit for. While I'm all for adding a potential stud DT to the rotation, it was nothing to do with Dwan and everything to do with who play's beside him and can develop into a guy as good as him.

[Catalyst]

Dwan may be more than a stop-gap player, but he's on a 1-year deal IIRC and he's not the long-term answer. Ideally, I agree, we add a big nose tackle to the mix to play beside Dwan, but I feel like Richardson is the better overall prospect over Hankins. It's entirely possible we could play Dwan and Richardson together, but we'd be lacking a true nose tackle in that scenario.

[CarolinaNCSU]

I'd be fine with Warmack or Richardson there, and I can actually see the QB thing happening like you have it played out. Teams will be desperate to find their QB with all of the success of rookie QBs and continue to reach, pushing more value down to our pick.

Also would really love it if by some miracle the Rams and Saints fell in love with the same player, allowing us to help the Rams out by switching 1st rounders and gaining a 3rd.

[La Pantera]

Dwan may be more than a stop-gap player, but he's on a 1-year deal IIRC and he's not the long-term answer. Ideally, I agree, we add a big nose tackle to the mix to play beside Dwan, but I feel like Richardson is the better overall prospect over Hankins. It's entirely possible we could play Dwan and Richardson together, but we'd be lacking a true nose tackle in that scenario.

He's on a two year deal and under contract next season.

[Catalyst]

Ah, I wasn't sure about that. Good to know. But still, I see Richardson as a younger, better version of Dwan Edwards. He's as good as Nick Fairley was coming out, IMO, but without the character concerns and with a motor that never stops.

[Captain Morgan]

did you see Glennon's bowl game? when I quit watching he had 3 picks.

Sure didn't look like a first-rounder.

[Salvo]

If we're that close to taking the best OG in the draft...which is arguably our biggest need, then I see us grabbing Warmack over the 2nd or 3rd best DT.

Glennon at 7 is a reach but definitely seems like something the Cardinals would do.

Otherwise, your mock looks good.

[Catalyst]

There's a lot of buzz surrounding Glennon in the top-10. It's not just me putting this in a mock. I wasn't aware of the bowl game, but it wouldn't be the first time a top-10 QB has had a bad bowl game and still got picked high.

Teams in the top-10 need QB's and they'll do exactly what the Vikings and Titans and Jags did in 2011 and the Browns did this past year - convince themselves that [insert QB] being the best QB on their board makes him worth a top-10 pick based on need.

[jarhead]

At the end of the day our biggest need was OL but not convinced that is where we will pick.

[Captain Morgan]

the buzz on Warmack is that he is the best guard prospect in a loooong time, perhaps the best can't-miss prospect

in this draft.

At 14, a guard of his caliber wouldn't be too much of a reach. I'm beginning to favor him over Richardson.

[CarolinaNCSU]

Glennon did have a bad bowl game, but it can be forgotten with a good combine/Senior Bowl. He could probably be argued as the best pure passer in the draft, so that alone could carry him into the 1st.

[Ivan The Awesome]

Um, RON is a stop gap player, Dwan will retire a panther. Meaning Dwan has at least 3-4 years left.