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NFL Divisional Preview by Bill Barbwell


Leeroy Jenkins PhD

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http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10273112/bill-barnwell-nfl-playoffs

 

First preview I have found that actually does a good job explaining the match-up.

 

Here are a couple good exerts, but I suggest you read the entire article: 

 

Here's my question: How many times do the Carolina Panthers have to prove that they're for real before people start believing? The Vegas line is one indicator, but just in reading Twitter, doing radio appearances, and listening to assorted forms of media throughout the week, there's a definite perception that the Panthers need to win this game to legitimize their status as a serious contender to win the Super Bowl this year. As if going 12-4 weren't enough!

 

The weird thing about the whole Cam Newton narrative this year is that he's being twisted in two directions and doesn't belong to either of them. As I wrote about before thePanthers went on their 11-1 run to end the season, Newton wasn't the guy holding the Panthers back. And while Carolina has gone on an incredible run, with Newton coming up with a number of key drives along that path, he also really hasn't taken some enormous step forward this year. He's still Cam:

 

 

 

It All Comes Down To …

Passing. Both these teams have solid running games, even if they're not necessarily always dominant. They each have excellent defenses; Carolina ranked third in defensive DVOA this year, and while the 49ers finished 13th, the return of Aldon Smith turned them into a scarier unit as the season went along, and Smith had one of his best games of the year against Green Bay last week. They each have above-average special teams, with San Francisco trading superior performances from their kickers and punters for inferior return work by their return men.

The big question mark, then, is whether either of these teams will be able to throw the football. San Francisco's passing game was functionally useless in Week 10, and a few key conversions in the second half were enough for Carolina to come through with an enormous victory. The Niners suit up for this contest as the dreaded West Coast team playing a 1:05 p.m. ET game, but if they can get last week's Crabtree onto the field and keep Steve Smith off it, the difference in each team's passing attack might be enough to swing the pendulum toward San Francisco.

 

 

Great article from a man who seems to actually know what he is talking about!

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    • We're in alignment regarding Thielen not being a game changer/breaker for the Panthers. Getting the ball into hands of playmakers like TMac and XL is going to open up things more than it is getting it to Thielen underneath (or letting him go after 50/50 balls 20yds downfield in his mid-30s). However, in a room where the other guys are two second year guys and two rookies, having a reliable vet that they can learn from is just as important as it is for the QB to have as a reliable third option. I can see that being worth $8.5M (just 3%) of the $279.2M cap... especially when looking at what's left out there: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/position/wr However, the idea that the team is forcing production to Thielen and leading to losses isn't supported by the data. Targets, not receiving yards, are how you can tell if a player is being "force fed." In the two games mentioned, let's look at the other players available... vs. TB 10 targets - Adam Thielen 9 targets - David Moore 8 targets - Tommy Tremble, Xavier Legette 3 targets - Jonathon Brooks 1 target - Dan Chisena, Feleipe Franks, Stephen Sullivan vs. PHI 11 targets - Adam Thielen 8 targets - Xavier Legette 5 targets - Chuba Hubbard, David Moore 2 targets - Tommy Tremble 1 target - Ja'Tavion Sanders, Deven Thompkins There isn't exactly a bounty of other names to throw the ball to. In those games, AT was one of the top 2 WRs. Diontae had been gone by that point.   So... yea. Agreed that Thielen isn't exactly carrying the team in his mid-30s, but it's undeniable that he was the most reliable target last season that still has quite a bit of value this season. Whether or not that value is reflected in a manner folks think on the contract is going to come down to personal taste. However, the idea that the team was forcing production to AT and that was the reason behind some losses couldn't be further from the truth.
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