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NOLA.com breaks down all 128 NFCS Scenarios (Caution: Bayou Maths)

Jase

By Jase,
in Carolina Panthers

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Jase Apprentice

Jase

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http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2014/12/128_ways_the_crazy_nfc_south_race_could_end_a_guide_to_the_final_3_weeks.html

 

Odds of winning the division

Team Percent

Falcons 45.71

8-8 record 11.36

7-9 record 30.47

6-10 record 3.89

Saints 36.13

8-8 record 16.53

7-9 record 19.26

6-10 record 0.34

Panthers 18.09

7-8-1 record 11.2

6-9-1 record 6.89

Based on probabilities of 128 outcomes occurring using Sagarin ratings.

 

Could one team clinch a playoff berth before the final week?

Yes, Atlanta and New Orleans both have a chance to clinch a week early and then rest for the playoffs in Week 17.

 

If the Falcons lose to Pittsburgh on Sunday and then the Saints beat the Bears on Monday night, the Saints could clinch the division by beating Atlanta on Dec. 21 if the Panthers lose to either Tampa or Cleveland.

 

The Falcons could also clinch the division on Dec. 21 by beating the Saints, assuming they beat the Steelers, the Saints lose to the Bears and the Panthers lose at least once.

 

The Saints could be eliminated from contention with a loss on Dec. 21 if Atlanta beats Pittsburgh OR Carolina beats both Tampa and Cleveland. (This is the case even if the Saints beat Chicago on Monday night).

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Jase Apprentice

Jase

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There are 25 scenarios where the panthers win the division.

Of those,

14 scenarios where we're in if we win out,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to TB,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to CLE,

and only 1 scenario where we're in if we lose to ATL.

Also, there are 2 scenarios where we win out and don't make it.

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Jase Apprentice

Jase

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So here's your who to cheer for week 16:

 

If ATL and NO both lose this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If NO loses and ATL wins this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If ATL loses and NO wins this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

If both ATL and NO win this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

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Goondal Newbie

Goondal

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Really could use Pittsburgh beating Atlanta this week to give us some insurance.  If those jerks lose to the Falcons, after also losing to New Orleans and Tampa, all after destroying us, then I do not know what I will do.

 

Damn that first Atlanta game.  Ron screwed us there.

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Shufdog Community Regular

Shufdog

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There are 25 scenarios where the panthers win the division.

Of those,

14 scenarios where we're in if we win out,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to TB,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to CLE,

and only 1 scenario where we're in if we lose to ATL.

Also, there are 2 scenarios where we win out and don't make it.

 

 

The one scenario where it's okay to lose to atlanta:

Falcons

L versus PIT

L versus NO

Saints

L versus CHI

W versus ATL

L versus TB

 

Hmmm asking for a lot, there.

 

 

So here's your who to cheer for week 16:

 

If ATL and NO both lose this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If NO loses and ATL wins this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If ATL loses and NO wins this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

If both ATL and NO win this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

 

 

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Jase Apprentice

Jase

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How do the Falcons have a better chance at 7-9 then 8-8?  Bayou maths indeed.

 

They don't have a better chance, that's just the percentage of total scenarios that get them in.  If the falcons go 8-8, they have a 100% chance of getting in.

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