NFL moves extra point to 15 yard line

[tondi]

The only time this will really matter is during funky weather games.  A 32 yd FG in windy conditions or with snow on the ground will be much more of a crapshoot than the old PAT. 

[Frank Hollywood]

What? That's not how probability works. You have a 49.8% chance of making one two point conversion in two tries. You have a 82.1% chance of making both PATs.

Can you show your math on the two point portion? It seems it should be higher, I was thinking 60% ish but not sure. I got what you got for the one point Percentage.

[nitroblast]

Can you show your math on the two point portion? It seems it should be higher, I was thinking 60% ish but not sure. I got what you got for the one point Percentage.

 

The odds of making both 2-pt conversions is 22.1% and the odds of making neither is 28.1%. There is a 49.8% chance of making one of those attempts. You could say there is a 71.9% chance of scoring some points, but you're still more likely to make both PATs.

 

[Frank Hollywood]

The odds of making both 2-pt conversions is 22.1% and the odds of making neither is 28.1%. There is a 49.8% chance of making one of those attempts. You could say there is a 71.9% chance of scoring some points, but you're still more likely to make both PATs.

What's the calculation to get the odds of one two point attempt?

[nitroblast]

What's the calculation to get the odds of one two point attempt?

 

It's just whatever's left after removing the odds of making both and making neither. Or just take the odds that you'll only make the first (.47 x .53), and add that to the odds that you'll only make the second (.53 x .47).

[Frank Hollywood]

It's just whatever's left after removing the odds of making both and making neither. Or just take the odds that you'll only make the first (.53 x .47), and add that to the odds that you'll only make the second (.47 x .53).

Appreciate it.

[Jimmy]

Math sucks

[Frank Hollywood]

So does that mean defenses can return 2 pt tries or they can still only return missed FGs? That part needs some more clarification

I just saw a snapshot of a news report that says both extra point and two point attempts can both be returned.

[Davidson Deac II]

Espn was dissecting and said a 32 yard FG % success rate was 91%

The 2 point play was 47%

So you technically have a higher percent chance of getting 2 points off 2 two point attempts than 2 32 yard PATs

Therefore attempting 2 two point plays become vastly more appealing to many teams. Will it? probably not for many.

 

But it will give the Huddle something to complain about when we lose a game by 1 when riverboat goes for 1 the whole game instead of two. 

[Mr. Scot]

Espn was dissecting and said a 32 yard FG % success rate was 91%

The 2 point play was 47%

So you technically have a higher percent chance of getting 2 points off 2 two point attempts than 2 32 yard PATs

Therefore attempting 2 two point plays become vastly more appealing to many teams. Will it? probably not for many.

 

Eeeehhh, not really.

 

Percentage isn't cumulative.

 

[pnthrs]

I never stated that espn was intelligent, just passing on what I heard.

If you want my take:

I bet a team like Den or Phi has a lot larger chance of a 2 pt conversion than other squads who keep the chance of a success below 50% therefor a team that has a 60 % success rate may be more inclined to give it a go vs a 91% chance of a pat (assuming espn was correct about that percentage.)

Edit: If I had to guess kicks have a higher block/return rate than a 2 point attempt

[Fox007]

I'd like something like this...

 

Touchdowns are worth 7 points period.

 

0-39 yard FGs worth  3 points

40-49 yard FGs worth 4 points

50+ yard FGs worth 5 points

 

Scoring would technically increase this way, which is what a lot of networks want.

 

or

 

All FGs under 50 yards worth 3 points and all FGs 50+ worth 4 points.

 

Would actually make the kicking game interesting if they are intent with keeping that part of the game alive may as well make it interesting and make decisions on whether or not to kick the FG more impactful. It also never made sense to me that a 29 yard FG is worth the same as a 50+.

 

or

 

Just remove kicking altogether...no FGs and Start at the 25 yard-line after each score.

 

 

[weyco2000]

So you can kick a FG from the one and get 3 points, but an extra point of 32 gets ya one? Ok... Great idea!

[Panthro]

Espn was dissecting and said a 32 yard FG % success rate was 91%

The 2 point play was 47%

So you technically have a higher percent chance of getting 2 points off 2 two point attempts than 2 32 yard PATs

Therefore attempting 2 two point plays become vastly more appealing to many teams. Will it? probably not for many.

wat