Contract Status and Cut Players

[jdpanther5]

It's been widely reported how much Gettleman hated losing his FA class of a couple years ago (Ginn, Mitchell, Captain, etc.) after many of his low-risk, 1-year deals cashed in after a 12-win season. Ever since, Getts has made a point to get players for multiple years if at all possible. We also know Dave isn't one to sacrifice future viability for short-term fixes. For these reasons, I've felt player contracts - specifically, the length of the contracts - were an understated driver in how the roster would fall into place. Spoiler: they were. Let's look into it a bit:

Running Back

Fozzy Whittaker - 2 years, $680k average

Brandon Wegher - 3 years, $525k average

Jordan Todman - 1 year, $765k

So not only was Todman only under control for one year, but he was also the most expensive of the perceived bubble guys. Gettleman keeps a pair of promising RBs under contract for multiple years at near-minimum amounts, all the while cutting the most pricey player who could bolt in a year anyway. 

Wide Receiver

Philly Brown - 2 years, $515 average

Kevin Norwood - 3 years, $600k average

Jarrett Boykin - 1 year, $700k

Brenton Bersin - 1 year, $510k

Mike Brown - 1 year, $585k

Damiere Byrd - 3 years, $526k average

Again, multi-year deals win out. Byrd is the exception, but he was always practice squad bound. Worth noting that, had Seattle cut him, Norwood would've likely signed a one-year minimum deal in hopes of signing long-term next year after proving himself. By trading for him, we secure his low-cost rookie-scale deal for another 3 years. Ginn also signed for two years. 

Offensive Line

Lots of guys here; basically Foucault did have two years left, but every other cut player was on a one-year deal. Nate Chandler is under contract for another three and made the team from the bubble. Scott was extended in the offseason and made the team. Amini will get the opportunity to finish out his rookie deal (relevant to compensatory picks).

Linebacker

David Mayo - 4 years, $680k average

Ben Jacobs - 1 year, $585k (then restricted)

Adarius Glanton - 1 year, $510k

Jason Trusnik - 1 year, $950k

Mayo and his cheap, long-term contract survive while again the most expensive bubble player is shown the door. Mayo's contract never comes close to Trusnik's one year, the closest being 2018 when it still falls $250k short. 

Secondary

Teddy Williams - 2 years, $950k average

Dean Marlowe - 3 years, $530 average

By now you're seeing the pattern: Heath, Byndom, Young, White, Lester, and Ball all were on one-year deals; none made the team. 

Gettleman clearly places a great deal of importance on how long guys are locked in, taking a long view when most of us are more focused solely on the upcoming season. 

Notes

QB: All made the team. 

TE: Every TE aside from Olsen and Dickson were on one-year deals. So not relevant here. 

DL: Predictably, only vets made the cut. Though perhaps it's worth noting that all but Cole (our oldest player), Love, and Horton (upcoming RFA) are under contract beyond this year. 

[JawnyBlaze]

Good analysis, though I think the DL bit falls outside the theory.  IMO, if Horton and Cox are on even playing field as far as the contract influence goes, then Cox should have had the advantage with youth and upside.  Love too probably.  I would have rather had kept Redden.

Not trying to take away from your theory, though.  Seems solid.  I assume Gettleman (and/or Rivera) just preferred the vets when it came to DL.

[Mr. Scot]

Nice job, JD.

[SIGCHI222]

Not sure what started you down this path...but it was the right choice.  Nice right up, theory and execution.  Kudos.

[Captain Obvious]

Now I'm confused. A nice substantial well thought out topic. What did you do with my Huddle and when is it coming back. Good job.

[Udogg]

Man that was like an anti Panther United post.  Excellent post.  That's something to think on,  where most of us look at performance at the GM level you have to factor cost/contract length as well.

That trade for Norwood makes a lot more sense as well.

Good stuff.
 

 

[jdpanther5]

Good analysis, though I think the DL bit falls outside the theory.  IMO, if Horton and Cox are on even playing field as far as the contract influence goes, then Cox should have had the advantage with youth and upside.  Love too probably.  I would have rather had kept Redden.

Not trying to take away from your theory, though.  Seems solid.  I assume Gettleman (and/or Rivera) just preferred the vets when it came to DL.

It's definitely the outlier, I think injuries may have forced their hand a bit. Maybe if Star is healthy they keep a developmental guy like Redden (3-year deal) vs. a more game-ready guy in Love. I obviously can't prove that though. 

Probably worth noting that Alexcih and Cox, two guys that fell just short, were on one year contracts. Miley, who came down with a mysterious/previously unknown injury today and was placed on IR, has 3 years left. Person even reported that they were going to designate him for return from IR, but that obviously didn't happen. 

Not sure what started you down this path...but it was the right choice.  Nice right up, theory and execution.  Kudos.

I've always been a nerd when it comes to the business side of sports, specifically cap management. I'm worse with the NBA and its much more complicated system, I could talk about Bird Rights and cap holds for hours...I'll stop now. 

[Kevin Greene]

We still have the influence of the idiot Marty Hurney on our cap number.

We are unable to not be frugal to this day.

[jdpanther5]

I can also explain why some guys are on shorter contracts in the first place. Basically, every rookie gets a multi-year deal, but the lengths vary. 

1st round picks: 4 years + option year

All other drafted players: 4 years

Undrafted players: 3 years

Most late-round to undrafted guys are stuck on minimum deals for a few years, and there is really nothing they can do about it. After they've been cut once, however, they can now negotiate their next deal. 

Now, they're unlikely to get much more than the minimum after being cut, but why agree to another long-term deal? It's not guaranteed in the NFL, you could sign today and be cut tomorrow, might as well take your minimum over only one-year.

If you overachieve, in a year you're a free agent again and can cash in. Meet expectations? Maybe another year or two for cheap. Fall short and now you're a FA without a job? Well, had you signed long-term you would've been cut anyway, so nothing would be different. 

This is why rookies are inherently more attractive to teams than even veterans with only one year of experience. The vets all want to bet on themselves with a one-year deal, but your rookies are locked in for at least 3.

Hell, if they outright cut Miley he may have come back next year, but only for a year. By placing him on IR they preserve his rookie contact. Plus he's cool with it because he still gets paid. 

[Mother Grabber]

i think it's more likely that he can see the future, and only gives 1yr deals go guys he knows he's going to cut.

[gakonline]

"Worth noting that, had Seattle cut him, Norwood would've likely signed a one-year minimum deal in hopes of signing long-term next year after proving himself. By trading for him, we secure his low-cost rookie-scale deal for another 3 years."

This was a smart move by Gettleman.  Needed help at WR receiver and got a guy they liked in the previous draft anyway. Kudos to him for grabbing him while still on his rookie contract. Gettleman proved this past draft he does not value 7th round picks anyway. He wants players that can make an immediate impact on the team.  Giving up a conditional 7th rounder is a win win. 

Awesome work GMan!

[brainless wuss]

Did Hardy's contract situation play a role in signing those one year deals?

[magnus]

may be worth noting that Trusnik, and maybe Todman, did have the vet exemption thing going on - that type deal that allows a team to sign a one year deal, give a minimum bonus and the vet min, but counts less.   With $12.5+ mil under the cap, I don't know that the team made a choice to save $50-75k for backup RB (if assuming Fozzy v/s JT), but who knows.

The term of contract is definitely a heavy weight on this situation, good catch.

[Mr. Scot]

Could be something of a self-fulfilling prophecy when you think about it.

The team might offer longer contracts to players that it feels better about to begin with.

Then when those players are the ones that stick, it kind of comes full circle.