Another Panthers' Stereotype Shattered

[KB_fan]

We all know this is a season for shattering Panthers' stereotypes...  Well here's another one that's fallen.  "We can't win when our opponents score 30+ points against us."  Well that WAS true of the old Panthers in a BIG way.  But yesterday we won in spite of all our bad history when our opponents score big.  Another stereotype shattered.

I just posted about this in the Week 13 Stats & Analysis thread, but it seemed so significant as to be worth a separate topic.

***

I got curious about the fact that we gave up 38 points and still won the game.  I wondered if that had ever happened before.  I've only looked back as far as 2011 and the beginning of the Panthers era under Cam & Ron. 

Yes, it's happened once before:  Against the Saints, In New Orleans, week 17 of the 2012 season, we won 44 - 38.

But, until yesterday, under Cam & Ron, we've previously LOST 18 of 20 games where our opponents scored 30+ points.  We tied another, and won ONLY 1.

2011 season:  lost 8 of 8 games when opponents scored 30+ points

2012 season:  lost 3 of 4 games when opponents scored 30+ points (the 1 win being the week 17 win against Saints)

2013 season:  lost 1 of 1 games -  we lost the only game of the year when our opponent scored 30+ points...to the Saints in New Orleans.

2014 season:  Of 7 games where our opponents scored 30+ points, we lost 6 and tied 1.

2015 season:   New Orleans is the only team we've allowed to score 30+ points, and we won.  In my mind, that's HUGE.

[caatfan]

These days it's-

Cam: "Damn, we need another TD. OK, there you go."

[MadHatter]

13 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

We all know this is a season for shattering Panthers' stereotypes...  Well here's another one that's fallen.  "We can't win when our opponents score 30+ points against us."  Well that WAS true of the old Panthers in a BIG way.  But yesterday we won in spite of all our bad history when our opponents score big.  Another stereotype shattered.

I just posted about this in the Week 13 Stats & Analysis thread, but it seemed so significant as to be worth a separate topic.

***

I got curious about the fact that we gave up 38 points and still won the game.  I wondered if that had ever happened before.  I've only looked back as far as 2011 and the beginning of the Panthers era under Cam & Ron. 

Yes, it's happened once before:  Against the Saints, In New Orleans, week 17 of the 2012 season, we won 44 - 38.

But, until yesterday, under Cam & Ron, we've previously LOST 18 of 20 games where our opponents scored 30+ points.  We tied another, and won ONLY 1.

2011 season:  lost 8 of 8 games when opponents scored 30+ points

2012 season:  lost 3 of 4 games when opponents scored 30+ points (the 1 win being the week 17 win against Saints)

2013 season:  lost 1 of 1 games -  we lost the only game of the year when our opponent scored 30+ points...to the Saints in New Orleans.

2014 season:  Of 7 games where our opponents scored 30+ points, we lost 6 and tied 1.

2015 season:   New Orleans is the only team we've allowed to score 30+ points, and we won.  In my mind, that's HUGE.

You would probably find a similar loss stat on almost any team when their opponent scores 30+

[KB_fan]

8 minutes ago, MadHatter said:

You would probably find a similar loss stat on almost any team when their opponent scores 30+

Yes, probably true.  I wasn't claiming it's unique to the Panthers to lose such games or that it's some way we're weaker than other teams.  Just trying to show how significant it is that we won a shoot out like that against the Saints at their dome.  Yes, we'd done it once before in 5 years... but this was a BIG WIN in more ways than one.  Champions find ways to win even in games that are going against them.

[Jackofalltrades]

We're winning every way possible, that's a good thing.

[MHS831]

I see your point KB, and we are finding ways to win that were sure losses before.  However, it still bothers me that we may be the beneficiary of a weak schedule.  We play the NFC East (3-0 against them with the Giants game in 2 weeks)--they do not have at team at or above .500; the AFC South (4-0 against them--no team above .500).  The NFC South (3-0 and no other team above .500).  That is 10 of the 12 wins against teams that are mediocre and below.  In fact, Seattle and Green Bay were not peaking when we played them.

Now I understand that 12-0 is all you can do, but look how many close games we had.  I love the Panthers, but Seattle and Arizona are hitting their stride.  We need to improve.  Yes, we can win the last 4 games and go 16-0, but the record is essentially 0-0 when the playoffs start.  I am guessing right now that we will have to beat Seattle and Arizona to get to the Super Bowl.  Squeaking by New Orleans does not make me feel warm and fuzzy.  I hope it was a wake up call.  Three times we had 12 men on the field.  Dropping passes, turnovers.  We had 10 days to prepare.  I think we sipped our own Kool Aid. 

Not trying to be a downer, but that is the voice in the back of my head.  I am proud of this team and love them as much as anyone on this board, but I am concerned that we are now playing with higher stakes on the table than everyone else.

[panthers55]

3 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I see your point KB, and we are finding ways to win that were sure losses before.  However, it still bothers me that we may be the beneficiary of a weak schedule.  We play the NFC East (3-0 against them with the Giants game in 2 weeks)--they do not have at team at or above .500; the AFC South (4-0 against them--no team above .500).  The NFC South (3-0 and no other team above .500).  That is 10 of the 12 wins against teams that are mediocre and below.  In fact, Seattle and Green Bay were not peaking when we played them.

Now I understand that 12-0 is all you can do, but look how many close games we had.  I love the Panthers, but Seattle and Arizona are hitting their stride.  We need to improve.  Yes, we can win the last 4 games and go 16-0, but the record is essentially 0-0 when the playoffs start.  I am guessing right now that we will have to beat Seattle and Arizona to get to the Super Bowl.  Squeaking by New Orleans does not make me feel warm and fuzzy.  I hope it was a wake up call.  Three times we had 12 men on the field.  Dropping passes, turnovers.  We had 10 days to prepare.  I think we sipped our own Kool Aid. 

Not trying to be a downer, but that is the voice in the back of my head.  I am proud of this team and love them as much as anyone on this board, but I am concerned that we are now playing with higher stakes on the table than everyone else.

This will give the team plenty to work on over the next week. The beauty about winning ugly is that there are always plenty of things to work on and plenty of film to watch regarding areas of improvement.  I doubt anyone thought we played well but we won despite all the issues.

[csx]

This is the first time I have heard this

[MadHatter]

31 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Yes, probably true.  I wasn't claiming it's unique to the Panthers to lose such games or that it's some way we're weaker than other teams.  Just trying to show how significant it is that we won a shoot out like that against the Saints at their dome.  Yes, we'd done it once before in 5 years... but this was a BIG WIN in more ways than one.  Champions find ways to win even in games that are going against them.

The highlighted part of your post is the absolute truth....and that is where this team has really grown and excelled.

They can win with defense....they can win shootouts....they can come back from deficits....they can let leads slip away and still make critical plays when needed.

This team has the mental makeup of a champion....and it is damn fun to watch.

[Asurfaholic]

1 hour ago, caatfan said:

These days it's-

Cam: "Damn, we need another TD. OK, there you go."

And that started in Seattle of all places. Such an amazing game is constantly overlooked due to an amazing season. So awesome to be a fan right now. 

[KB_fan]

I decided to do a comparison of the Panthers and several key teams in regards to how they've fared when opponents score 30+ points since 2011.  So here's a look at the Panthers, Patriots, Arizona, Green Bay & Seattle...

Except for 2013 and this season, Panthers had a higher number/% of games in which we allowed our opponebts to score 30+.  Green Bay also allowed a similar number of games in which opponents scored 30+ points, but they won a higher % - especially in 2011.

New England has a great 43% rate of winning games when their opponents score 30+ points, and hasn't allowed that many.

Elite teams dominate on defense and can win the occasional shoot out on offense...  We're getting there!

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

38 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

no team above .500

Can we stop throwing this buzzphrase around for 4 weeks? Every week, the number of teams the Panthers have played who are at, above, or below .500 has changed. Let's see how things look after the records and stats stop changing.

[KB_fan]

31 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I see your point KB, and we are finding ways to win that were sure losses before.  However, it still bothers me that we may be the beneficiary of a weak schedule.  That is 10 of the 12 wins against teams that are mediocre and below.  In fact, Seattle and Green Bay were not peaking when we played them.

...  Squeaking by New Orleans does not make me feel warm and fuzzy.  I hope it was a wake up call.  Three times we had 12 men on the field.  Dropping passes, turnovers.  We had 10 days to prepare.  I think we sipped our own Kool Aid.

Understand your point.  But do remember that only 11 teams in the entire NFL have winning records.  So the fact of our playing so many 500 or below teams is not necessarily unique to us.  Maybe later today in the stats & analysis thread I can post updated stats on Strength of Schedule for us vs. other potential playoff teams.

And as to squeaking by New Orleans, I do think a lot of that has to do with it being a divisional opponent that knows us so well.  They perhaps are more primed to beat us than a team like Arizona who we play infrequently.  Not to mention Payton is a pretty dang good offensive mastermind.

If all our games to bad opponents had been close, I'd worry, but we truly dominated Tenn, Washington & Dallas.  And there are 3 other games in which we never trailed the entire game.  So, many of our games have been stronger than the score indicated.  We've only ever trailed in 4 games after half-time - that means in 67% of our games we've not ever trailed in the 2nd half.  The team seems to figure out how to win in different circumstances.