Reviewing recent Gettleman draft picks & their grades

[KB_fan]

This is my first season paying any real attention to mock drafts & draft prospects.  (I'm only paying slight attention at this point..., but that's much more than I've done other offseasons...)

As I look at prospects various mock drafts have falling to us at #30, I found myself not having much frame of reference in terms of the grades...  So, in true stat geek fashion, I went back to look at Gettleman's 2013-2015 drafts and the pre-draft grades (from the NFL.com draft tracker page) for each player we picked.

(The grading system changed in 2014... so it's a bit hard to compare the 2013 grades with those from 2014 & 2015.)

 

With the exception of Tre Boston, graded at 5.1, all of our 2014 & 2015 picks were graded at 5.2 or higher.

Here's how this year's draft stacks up (so far) in terms of numbers of prospects graded at 5.2 or higher (obviously the Combine will change grades, I'll revisit this again in a few weeks....)

2016:  212 players >=  5.2

2015:  235 players >= 5.2

2014:  221 players >= 5.2

 

It wouldn't surprise me to see Gettleman trade our 5th & 7th round picks this year to move up in some round.  (We don't have a 6th round pick, as we traded that for Jared Allen).  4 players would be a very small draft class, but our staff have shown they can also find excellent & productive UDFAs...

 

[d-dave]

I think I'd rather have two dimes than three nickles =)

So I think that's what he's going to do.  Find the best players around our draft position and get them.  FA will fill the basic holes, and it's hard to beat getting the best players.

Now some teams like the Pats and Ravens are notorious for grabbing as many draft picks as possible, which is all fine and great.  Gettleman just isn't that kind of GM.  It's about quality over quantity.

[stirs]

Explain grading system please

 

[d-dave]

Here's the current one from NFL.com

9.00-10 - Once-in-lifetime player

8.00-8.99 - Perennial All-Pro

7.50-7.99 - Future All-Pro

7.00-7.49 - Pro Bowl-caliber player

6.50-6.99 - Chance to become Pro Bowl-caliber player

6.00-6.49 - Should become instant starter

5.50-5.99 - Chance to become NFL starter

5.20-5.49 - NFL backup or special teams potential

5.01-5.19 - Better-than-average chance to make NFL roster

5.0050-50 - Chance to make NFL roster

4.75-4.99 - Should be in an NFL training camp

4.50-4.74 - Chance to be in an NFL training camp

NO GRADE - Likely needs time in developmental league.

[Gettleman's Hog Mollies]

12 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

It wouldn't surprise me to see Gettleman trade our 5th & 7th round picks this year to move up in some round.  (We don't have a 6th round pick, as we traded that for Jared Allen).  4 players would be a very small draft class, but our staff have shown they can also find excellent & productive UDFAs...

 

" If I have a dollar, I’d rather have the dollar than the three dimes."

I can definitely see them trading up, but they need to be frugal with the limited draft capital. There aren't any significant UFA's on the roster outside of Josh, but they also need young cost controlled talent for the next few years. They will have 27 players under contract for 2017. KK (if they don't get a deal done), Star, Philly, Norwell, Ginn, and AJ Klein will be the notable FAs that season. You can't pay everyone, so it's good to get a head start on finding some young replacements. 

[thefuzz]

23 minutes ago, d-dave said:

I think I'd rather have two dimes than three nickles =)

So I think that's what he's going to do.  Find the best players around our draft position and get them.  FA will fill the basic holes, and it's hard to beat getting the best players.

Now some teams like the Pats and Ravens are notorious for grabbing as many draft picks as possible, which is all fine and great.  Gettleman just isn't that kind of GM.  It's about quality over quantity.

Always thought that was a terrible way to play this game.  BB always gets credit for turning 1 pick into 2 or 3, all the while no one looking back at just how unproductive most of those picks have been.

I would much prefer to have a clear idea of the direction of the franchise, and draft accordingly.  

[d-dave]

1 minute ago, thefuzz said:

Always thought that was a terrible way to play this game.  BB always gets credit for turning 1 pick into 2 or 3, all the while no one looking back at just how unproductive most of those picks have been.

I would much prefer to have a clear idea of the direction of the franchise, and draft accordingly.  

It's funny, I remember not too long ago we were in the mindset to stockpile picks around here.  =)  Oh how times have changed!

I completely agree, I like our current direction.  I mean, we went to the Super Bowl when everyone was ready to write us off when KB went down.  

[thefuzz]

2 minutes ago, d-dave said:

It's funny, I remember not too long ago we were in the mindset to stockpile picks around here.  =)  Oh how times have changed!

I completely agree, I like our current direction.  I mean, we went to the Super Bowl when everyone was ready to write us off when KB went down.  

Same.

I'm not opposed to trading back, as long as you know exactly where you are going, and have a clear idea that the  player/players will be there then....if not damn them.  I don't care if Mel and Mike say we "reached" as long as it's the player that DG wants, and he thought he wouldn't be there if he dropped a few slots.

Much like the Shaq pick, many here started howling immediately that we had reached...I couldn't have cared less.

[ctrcat]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

This is my first season paying any real attention to mock drafts & draft prospects.  (I'm only paying slight attention at this point..., but that's much more than I've done other offseasons...)

As I look at prospects various mock drafts have falling to us at #30, I found myself not having much frame of reference in terms of the grades...  So, in true stat geek fashion, I went back to look at Gettleman's 2013-2015 drafts and the pre-draft grades (from the NFL.com draft tracker page) for each player we picked.

(The grading system changed in 2014... so it's a bit hard to compare the 2013 grades with those from 2014 & 2015.)

 

With the exception of Tre Boston, graded at 5.1, all of our 2014 & 2015 picks were graded at 5.2 or higher.

Here's how this year's draft stacks up (so far) in terms of numbers of prospects graded at 5.2 or higher (obviously the Combine will change grades, I'll revisit this again in a few weeks....)

2016:  212 players >=  5.2

2015:  235 players >= 5.2

2014:  221 players >= 5.2

 

It wouldn't surprise me to see Gettleman trade our 5th & 7th round picks this year to move up in some round.  (We don't have a 6th round pick, as we traded that for Jared Allen).  4 players would be a very small draft class, but our staff have shown they can also find excellent & productive UDFAs...

 

As far as trades, a precedent was set last year with the Broncos trading a 2015 and 2016 5th to the Lions to move up 5 spots (28 to 23).  Something to keep in mind with the Steelers at 25 who ironically....don't have a 5th round pick.

FAR preferable to the Saints disaster of trading a 3rd to move up to get Cooks when that 3rd could have been Trai Turner.

Our late 7th has such little value this year I honestly don't see it as trade value.

[Mr. Scot]

57 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

Always thought that was a terrible way to play this game.  BB always gets credit for turning 1 pick into 2 or 3, all the while no one looking back at just how unproductive most of those picks have been.

I would much prefer to have a clear idea of the direction of the franchise, and draft accordingly.  

The Patriots haven't been great at drafting for a while.  Very hit or miss.

They still get good free agents cheap because guys figure they have a good shot at a ring, but I get the sense their long open window is starting to inch toward shutting.

 

[thefuzz]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

The Patriots haven't been great at drafting for a while.  Very hit or miss.

They still get good free agents cheap because guys figure they have a good shot at a ring, but I get the sense their long open window is starting to inch toward shutting.

 

Agreed.  I think that we may see a Duncan/Pop riding off into the sunset together with Brady and BB.

They both know that they couldn't do it alone, and Brady is starting to show some wear and tear.

[top dawg]

The demise of the Brady and the Patriots has been overblown in the Huddle for the last couple of seasons. I don't see Billy B going anywhere, and their drafts have not been terrible. Between drafting and free agency, The Hoodie is a master team builder.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Good stuff

[CarolinaNCSU]

I'm all for getting rid of 7th round picks every year. Start working the phones earlier. Unfortunately, a 7th may help us move up in...the 7th round? 6th maybe (where we won't pick)?  Doubt we'll see a lot of action this year unless there's a magical trade down or future picks get involved.