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Why Luke and TD are the League's best LB duo

Ricky Spanish

By Ricky Spanish,
in Carolina Panthers

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The NFL Shield At Midfield Grand Master

The NFL Shield At Midfield

Posted
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there's always one

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crosseyedlemon • 7 hours ago
It's one thing to look dominate against bad teams from the NFC East but this season the Panthers will have some tougher opponents to face. It's also hard to imagine them posting a +20 turnover ratio again...so this season won't be the cakewalk they had last year.

off the top of my head didn't we beat all the NFC playoff teams except for minnesota?  including a 49-15 pasting of a 13-3 team?

yeah our 2016 schedule is harder on paper but sometimes it feels like the entire world thinks we're an 8-8 team that accidentally won 15 games.

e: holy poo did i really type "off the top of my dead"

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TapRackCap Newbie

TapRackCap

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there's always one

off the top of my dead didn't we beat all the NFC playoff teams except for minnesota?  including a 49-15 pasting of a 13-3 team?

yeah our 2016 schedule is harder on paper but sometimes it feels like the entire world thinks we're an 8-8 team that accidentally won 15 games.

Nah, an 11-5 team that went 15-1. And looked great doing it.

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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Nice analysis.  It looks like the whole series could be quite instructive.

I do have to laugh a bit though because PFF gave TD such terrible marks in terms of run defense, and then they go ahead and love on him in this article about how he and Luke are "superb" against the run.  LOL.

But the article does a great job of explaining how TD & Luke excel in spite of the ways our defensive scheme puts a lot of added pressure and responsibility on them.  Love it.

 

8 hours ago, L-TownCat said:

they win because that's what they want.  You tell one of them no, and see what happens.

L-Town, I so TOTALLY agree with what you wrote about their will to win.  I know we all point to Josh's game-saving interception against N Orleans, but TD's interception against Rodgers, Luke's OT interception of Luck were similarly crucial and game-winning plays.  And then there's TD's "hands-team" grab of the onsides kick by Seattle to ensure our playoff win... Those two guys repeatedly changed the outcomes of games...

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d-dave Grand Master

d-dave

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With Luke and TD, I think what we see are two players who can literally will plays into existence.  These two guys are truly great, and we are so lucky as Panther fans. 

Just think how folks hated those respective picks... =P

Now if Shaq is able to develop and improve...oh boy...we could run a straight 4-3 the entire game!

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bleedsgreenandgold Newbie

bleedsgreenandgold

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10 hours ago, The NFL Shield At Midfield said:

there's always one

off the top of my dead didn't we beat all the NFC playoff teams except for minnesota?  including a 49-15 pasting of a 13-3 team?

yeah our 2016 schedule is harder on paper but sometimes it feels like the entire world thinks we're an 8-8 team that accidentally won 15 games.

These were the same people who said we didn't play anybody in the regular season and that we would get blown out by Seattle in playoffs. Errrr what?

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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10 hours ago, The NFL Shield At Midfield said:

yeah our 2016 schedule is harder on paper but sometimes it feels like the entire world thinks we're an 8-8 team that accidentally won 15 games.

Of course, historically we ARE an 8-8 team, with just under a .500 win percentage over the team's history.  And, also, regression to the mean is a pretty well-documented statistical pattern..., so it's not too hard to understand these kind of comments about the Panthers' falling off a cliff.

Speaking of regression to the mean:

I was browsing through some of the blog entries at football perspective this week, and I came across an article from last year about team wins and regression to the mean

http://www.footballperspective.com/regression-to-the-mean-and-team-wins/

Looking at the data for team wins from 2003 - 2014, they attempted to come up with a formula to predict wins in the following season:

Quote

to predict future wins, start with a constant for all teams (5.51 wins), and then add only 0.31 wins for every prior win. In other words, three additional wins in Year N-1 aren’t even enough to project one full extra win in Year N! That’s a remarkable amount of regression to the mean, even if not necessarily surprising.

Using that formula would mean we would be expected to win 10 games in 2016. 

But of course, using that formula, we were only expected to win 7.8 games in 2015.  HAH!

Over time regression to the mean is pretty valid, but season-to-season, one has to take into account the factors that led a team to such out-performance, and we've got all our coaches, and all our key players except J-No & Harper returning.  So... I wouldn't predict a Panthers regression to the mean this season. 

I'm not predicting we'll win 15 games again either.  That's incredibly hard to do.  But I think 12-4 is probably our floor.  and 13-3 or 14-2 extremely possible....

Anyway, it's interesting to look at that table comparing "predicted wins" vs. real wins. 

With our 7.2 wins above our "expected" win total in 2015, we would be number two in terms of most-outperforming teams since 2003, behind only the 2004 Steelers.

Expected wins.png

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/regression-to-the-mean-and-team-wins/

 

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Moorgan Enthusiast

Moorgan

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1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

Of course, historically we ARE an 8-8 team, with just under a .500 win percentage over the team's history.  And, also, regression to the mean is a pretty well-documented statistical pattern..., so it's not too hard to understand these kind of comments about the Panthers' falling off a cliff.

Speaking of regression to the mean:

I was browsing through some of the blog entries at football perspective this week, and I came across an article from last year about team wins and regression to the mean

http://www.footballperspective.com/regression-to-the-mean-and-team-wins/

Looking at the data for team wins from 2003 - 2014, they attempted to come up with a formula to predict wins in the following season:

Using that formula would mean we would be expected to win 10 games in 2016. 

But of course, using that formula, we were only expected to win 7.8 games in 2015.  HAH!

Over time regression to the mean is pretty valid, but season-to-season, one has to take into account the factors that led a team to such out-performance, and we've got all our coaches, and all our key players except J-No & Harper returning.  So... I wouldn't predict a Panthers regression to the mean this season. 

I'm not predicting we'll win 15 games again either.  That's incredibly hard to do.  But I think 12-4 is probably our floor.  and 13-3 or 14-2 extremely possible....

Anyway, it's interesting to look at that table comparing "predicted wins" vs. real wins. 

With our 7.2 wins above our "expected" win total in 2015, we would be number two in terms of most-outperforming teams since 2003, behind only the 2004 Steelers

I know it's not the Official Prediction thread but I've gone over your math,,,in detail. After going over the numbers and using some of your advanced metrics I've come up with the most likely prediction...19-0.

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