16.7% TD rate in the redzone.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

A lot is being made of the Panthers failure in the Redzone their first two games.  I keep seeing this stat, 16.7% TD rate once in the redzone. It is discussed at length on the Riot Report here (https://theriotreport.com/seeing-red-what-is-causing-the-panthers-scoring-struggles/).  But I will save you a click: 
 

Quote

So far this season the Panthers are one-for-six in the red zone, and have had another two drives stall in the opponent’s 25. Those numbers would have ranked the Panthers as the worst red zone offense in 2016, with a percentage less than half that of any other team. There are many potential reasons why an offense might struggle in the red zone; play calling, blocking and skills position execution being the most likely; and this piece will hopefully determine which of these is being the Panthers’ early struggles.

I do not see this as a negative at all!  This team is 2-0 and only scoring TDs on 16.7% of their redzone drives and 12% of drives that enter the opponents 25 yard line.  Imagine how dominating this team is going to be once the O-line meshes and Cam shakes the rust off!!!  Holy Hell right?!?!

Lets just assume out of those 8 drives in which Carolina stalled in the opponents 25, we had converted just 60% (our normal production), giving us TDs on 5 of 8 tries. That is 4 more TDs instead of field goals.  A difference of 16 points.  That means we would have scored 48 total points across our first two games and are looking at a top 10 offense.  

Call regression to the mean, call it overall team improvement, call it what you want.  Carolina will not finish the season only scoring TDs on 12% of drives that pass the opponents 25 yard line.  It would be historically and improbably bad Redzone efficiency. 

Some point to that stat as a reason to discount the Panthers.  If anything, it is a reason for optimism. 

[SmittysLawnGuy]

Preach it brother. Great point.

[gmonjimbo]

There are definitely reasons to be optimistic about the offense. I think one of the problems is that they need to change their tendencies on first down once they get near or reach the redzone.

1st QTR  (9:50) 1-10 at BUF 20 - CMC run  for 4 yards

2nd QTR (14:22)  1-10 at BUF 23- Stew for 1 yard

2nd QTR (4:17) 2-4 at BUF 29- Cam to Dickson 29 yards, (same drive) 1-10 at BUF 9 - CMC run for -2 yards

4th QTR (4:58) 1-10 at BUF 22 - Cam to KB for 16 yards, (same drive) 1-10 at BUF 6 - DPI, (same drive) 1-10 at BUF 1 - Stew rush for -2 yards

This is a small sample size but the offense performed better when they decided to throw on first down when they got near or reached the redzone but struggled when they opted to run.

[tiger7_88]

lol we all know why Field Goal Ron and Field Goal Mike stall in the red zone.

[OGPanther1993]

That's horrible.......16.7% with two 6'5 WR, One of the best pass catching RB's in the league, and a 6'5 250 lb QB who is one of the best best redzone running weapons in the history of the league. 

[RumHam]

Gotta love Shula. Put this on the list of reasons to fire this fug. Plus KB dropping passes when it matters. Maybe Hurney wants Shula to prove he was right about keeping Gano.

[ncsportsfan1234]

6 minutes ago, OGPanther1993 said:

That's horrible.......16.7% with two 6'5 WR, One of the best pass catching RB's in the league, and a 6'5 250 lb QB who is one of the best best redzone running weapons in the history of the league. 

The coaches seem reluctant to do it this season but I guarantee those numbers would be much better if we ran QB power down there.... we haven't even attempted it.... one time the threat of it can open up other runs....

[OGPanther1993]

1 minute ago, ncsportsfan1234 said:

The coaches seem reluctant to do it this season but I guarantee those numbers would be much better if we ran QB power down there.... we haven't even attempted it.... one time the threat of it can open up other runs....

We were at the one yard line if you don't want to run QB power, Why not try a sneak under center? It just seems like a bad offensively called game entirely.

[ncsportsfan1234]

1 minute ago, OGPanther1993 said:

We were at the one yard line if you don't want to run QB power, Why not try a sneak under center? It just seems like a bad offensively called game entirely.

This so much this ^^^^ no way Cam doesn't get that I think he's close to 90% on his career.

[Byrdman4real]

14 minutes ago, OGPanther1993 said:

We were at the one yard line if you don't want to run QB power, Why not try a sneak under center? It just seems like a bad offensively called game entirely.

I was thinking the same during the game

[Peppers90 NC]

1st and goal on the one, too many times in recent years we have failed to punch it in and we are a supposed power run-first team. I just dont get it.

[Davidson Deac II]

1 hour ago, OGPanther1993 said:

We were at the one yard line if you don't want to run QB power, Why not try a sneak under center? It just seems like a bad offensively called game entirely.

If you are referring to the last series, didn't Cam have a bad ankle?

 

 

[OGPanther1993]

34 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

If you are referring to the last series, didn't Cam have a bad ankle?

 

 

Yes, I believe he did have his ankle rolled at this point, so I could see why this could factor into playcalling. Also, maybe Kalil being out also impacted the decision. Bum ankle or not there is no way Cam is stopped from getting in from the 1 yard line.

[PantherBrew]

Cam has been hiding this stink bug red zone offense for a while.  His running power or threat of running power opened it all up. 

Now with that being said, we will get better, but unless we have 15' running Cam then we won't be that successful (2015).