A chance that Norwell stays?

[arbnranger]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Addison is worth his contract.

I love TD to death and I'm very happy as a fan that he's still a Panther, but from a football perspective, when we drafted Shaq that should've been the writing on the wall for TD. You have to capitalize on players while they're on the rookie contracts and relatively cheap. We have done way too much stockpiling of talent with 1st round picks and gotten pretty damn poor return on those picks simply because they're behind better, more experienced players on the depth chart. 

Agree 99% of the time. Makes sense and I’m all about making business decisions. 

But...there is that 1% of the time that you make the exception. TD gets the benefit of the doubt on this one man. The money is worth the culture he brings long term. How  you treat a guy like TD says a lot about who we are. 

Ita still a worthy investment, just a different kind. 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, arbnranger said:

Agree 99% of the time. Makes sense and I’m all about making business decisions. 

But...there is that 1% of the time that you make the exception. TD gets the benefit of the doubt on this one man. The money is worth the culture he brings long term. How  you treat a guy like TD says a lot about who we are. 

Ita still a worthy investment, just a different kind. 

 

I don't necessarily disagree but you dont draft Shaq in the first round if that's the plan. Next year is our last year of getting him on the cheap and he'll have spent all four of his cheap years either as a backup or splitting time with TD. That's not great return on a 1st round pick.

[AU-panther]

2 hours ago, ericr0319 said:

Cuts - 

Ryan Kalil - saves $7,500,000. Aging, injured, and just not worth that pay day.
Jonathan Stewart - saves $3,750,000. See above.
Russell Shepard - saves $2,150,000. Not reliable. The only plays I remember from him outside his week 1 touchdown were bad plays. 
Charles Johnson - saves $3,500,000. Thank you for your time, but no where near worth this money, and I do not even want to see him take a paycut. Right now he is worthless on the field.
Wes Horton - saves $1,200,000. We will look to FA/Draft for more DE. 
Fozzy Whittaker - saves $1,150,000. Just not worth the $. Can find 100s of guys just like him. 
Kevon Seymour - saves $630,000. I mentioned him and Sanchez of the lesser guys because it is time to move on.
Zack Sanchez - saves $555,000. See above. 
Maybe cut a few others, but this brings our cap to $39,395,591.

Cutting guys like Sanchez or Seymour really doesn't save us any cap space.  The numbers you are working with are based off of top-51, that means if you cut someone like Sanchez you are just replacing him with someone else.  A seventh round pick this year will cost about 500k so you really aren't saving.

Just like cutting Horton will only save about 700k.

I do agree though that we can afford Norwell.  The question is do we want to pay him.  The question isn't can we, its whether we want to allocate that many resources to the guard position.  People seem to forget the fact that every dollar you pay one player is one less then you pay someone else.

What if the question was do you want to spend $11m on Norwell or $11m on a WR?

Maybe we can afford both.   At that point though the question becomes do you want to pay a guard and a WR $11m each or would you want to maybe add a safety or CB also?

Normally I wouldn't want to tie up that much cap space in guards, but I could make an argument to do it.  Elite (top 3-5 at their position) players are really hard to find so you hate to let them walk.  This year's draft class seems to be strong on guards.  It would be tempting to draft one, you could save a good bit of cap over the next 4 years and depending on what else you do in Free agency you  might get a 3rd round comp pick out of it. 

Only problem with drafting a Norwell replacement this year is that next year you might end up drafting a replacement for Ryan.  Do we really want a 2nd year guard and a rookie center for Cam?

Also Williams will be a free agent next year so he might end up commanding more money then Turner or Norwell.  Maybe we spend on Norwell, Turner, and Williams.  Go cheap at center (draft one this year) and hope Moton (also cheap) can play LT next year.  At that point I'm guessing we might have one of the higher priced Olines in the league.

 

[Salisburysean98]

If Williams continues his play from last season he becomes top priority. I've seen too many turds at Tackle for this team besides Wharton when he played the position and Gross. Who else ? Nobody, and Remmers still gives me nightmares. 

[arbnranger]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I don't necessarily disagree but you dont draft Shaq in the first round if that's the plan. Next year is our last year of getting him on the cheap and he'll have spent all four of his cheap years either as a backup or splitting time with TD. That's not great return on a 1st round pick.

I agree, that’s the facts.  

In just a performance based decision, TD may have stayed a year to long but.....hindsight ya know . Just referring to what decisions we have to make going forward. 

It’s difficult and maybe not a great short term business decision looking at it now. But...as an OG fan bit of a homer, I can see some historic and nostalgic value in the long term. Loyalty has value in the locker room in a lot of ways. 

To be honest, I think TD has a great year. His last one? ....Yea, he’s going to play lights out.  Probably not out there on as many snaps as days past. The aging lion handing over the reins the the young cub.

All things considered, I think it’s a good move to keep him. 

Know what I mean ?

[RealisticPanther]

We've definitely gotten very poor value out of our first round picks, Gettleman's strategy really didn't work out well here. Shaq was a horrible pick, i was optimistic about it when it happened, but in retrospect, just a horrible waste of a pick.

[DaveThePanther2008]

if we are going to keep Norwell I cannot help but believe that Moton is ready to move to LT. 

It makes no sense to pay Norwell top G money when we have Moton unless they have plans to move Moton out to LT.

 

[grimesgoat]

13 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I don't necessarily disagree but you dont draft Shaq in the first round if that's the plan. Next year is our last year of getting him on the cheap and he'll have spent all four of his cheap years either as a backup or splitting time with TD. That's not great return on a 1st round pick.

History Reminder (not necessarily for LinvilleGorge).

Shaq was drafted in 2015.  At that time, TD was 32 years old, had played 11 years, and had 3 significant knee surgeries (on the same knee).  The average career of an NFL LB is around 4 years.  He had 1 year left on his contract and his cap hit was around 10m. 

Shaq was a rare talent, and would probably not last more than a handful of picks after ours.  LB is probably the most important position on our defense and AJ Klein was not good enough to replace TD.  In my opinion, it would be borderline malpractice not to draft Shaq at that time.

A couple of months later, TD was given a 2 year extension.  This was 'the last contract he planned to sign'.  It would lower the 2015 cap hit and take him through 2017.  I kind of wonder if Gettleman was fully on board with this or was JR meddling.

2 years later, TD is still playing at a fairly high level.  Now he wants yet another contract extension.  Perhaps Gman refused to do it again and JR said fine, see ya and Hurney quickly dialed up the extension.  Who knows, but I think its safe to say the expectation 3 years ago was not for Shaq to play 50% of our defensive snaps plus special teams at this point.

[Ship]

Here’s what I’d do:

Tag Norwell to keep other teams at bay for the start of FA.

Negotiate a long term deal that’s backloaded.

Transition from the Kalils after this season.

[LinvilleGorge]

12 minutes ago, Ship said:

Here’s what I’d do:

Tag Norwell to keep other teams at bay for the start of FA.

Negotiate a long term deal that’s backloaded.

Transition from the Kalils after this season.

It'd be a dangerous plan. Norwell and Rosenhaus very well may choose to just take that $15M+ from the franchise tag and bank it and hit the open market next year at 27 years old and still cash in big time. Could be the best of both worlds situation for them. One season of making elite LT money, then a long-term contract making elite OG money.

[MHS831]

12 minutes ago, Ship said:

Here’s what I’d do:

Tag Norwell to keep other teams at bay for the start of FA.

Negotiate a long term deal that’s backloaded.

Transition from the Kalils after this season.

Here is why I would not do this--and it has been said, but your opinion is indeed an option:

1. Tag Norwell means you pay a left Guard top 5 left tackle money for a season.  That means you would pay him about 150% of what a top LG contract would be.

2. Go ahead and pay him his market value.  Pay him what you paid Turner.  Reason?  You would be young and powerful at both G spots that flank a mediocre or young C.

3. Cutting Ryan Kalil saves enough $$ to sign Norwell if you add his current salary to what Norwell is making now.  Kalil has played 14 games in 2 seasons with the same reason---expecting a full season is unrealistic.  Announcing he is returning for 2018 and then retiring is a business move.  I say go with Larsen flanked by Turner and Norwell opposed to going with Silatolu, Kalil  (Larsen most of the time) and Turner.

4. Contractually, we have no choice but to keep Matt Kalil, and that is why you have to cut his brother.  Would love to see a rookie grooming for the LT job this year.  Please, GM, draft Brandon Parker in the third.  Crazy?  Nope.

[LinvilleGorge]

5 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Here is why I would not do this--and it has been said, but your opinion is indeed an option:

1. Tag Norwell means you pay a left Guard top 5 left tackle money for a season.  That means you would pay him about 150% of what a top LG contract would be.

2. Go ahead and pay him his market value.  Pay him what you paid Turner.  Reason?  You would be young and powerful at both G spots that flank a mediocre or young C.

3. Cutting Ryan Kalil saves enough $$ to sign Norwell if you add his current salary to what Norwell is making now.  Kalil has played 14 games in 2 seasons with the same reason---expecting a full season is unrealistic.  Announcing he is returning for 2018 and then retiring is a business move.  I say go with Larsen flanked by Turner and Norwell opposed to going with Silatolu, Kalil  (Larsen most of the time) and Turner.

4. Contractually, we have no choice but to keep Matt Kalil, and that is why you have to cut his brother.  Would love to see a rookie grooming for the LT job this year.  Please, GM, draft Brandon Parker in the third.  Crazy?  Nope.

I'm on board. I'd also look into drafting a center in this deep draft for centers to compete with Larsen or groom for a season or two behind Larsen. I'd love to know what the coaching staff has planned for Moton. To me, he might be the key to this decision. If they think he might be best suited inside, they might kick him over to LG and let Norwell walk. If they think he's best suited at OT, go ahead and start grooming him at LT behind Kalil with the hopes he can take over that spot in 2019. The way I see it now, on the OL we have two certainties. Williams at RT and Turner at RG. Now we have to make the decision on Kalil at center which to me is a no brainer given his cap hit and a viable replacement already on the roster in Larsen and we have to decide what to do at LG. Do we re-sign Norwell to another big OG contract or is Moton the answer there? Personally, I hope they see Moton as an OT and potential future LT. LTs are a lot harder to find and a lot more expensive than OGs.

What I'd do?

Cut Kalil. Roll with Larsen and look to add another young center in the draft to groom behind him. There should be some very attractive options available with one of our 3rds given the depth in the class. Re-sign Norwell with the savings from cutting Kalil. Groom Moton at LT behind Kalil. Get ready to re-sign Darryl Williams. Look to add additional OT/OG depth in the later rounds. Extend Trai Turner in 2020 when his cap hit jumps up to $12M. He'll still only be 26 years old.

[imminent rogaine]

37 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Extend Trai Turner in 2020 when his cap hit jumps up to $12M. He'll still only be 26 years old.

wow

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, imminent rogaine said:

wow

He was super young coming out of college. Most analysts thought he would've improved his draft position considerably had he played another year of college ball.