Interesting Stat/Factoid: Game 4 the worst for the Panthers since 2011

[KB_fan]

So over the weekend, I added the first 3 2018 game scores to a spreadsheet I've been keeping for a few years with the Panthers' game by game results.  I noticed something interesting.  Game 4 has historically been the Panthers WORST by a large margin since 2011 - both in terms of W-L record (2-5) and points allowed (a whopping 32.1 points per game).

Here's what it looks like:

 

In 5 of the 7 seasons, Panthers allowed 30 or more points in their 4th game, including last year's win versus the Patriots.  

The next worst game by points allowed is Game 10 of the season with 28.3 points allowed, but that is skewed by 2 blowout losses where the team allowed 45+ points per game.

Game 4 has been CONSISTENTLY poor for the Panthers.  But note, all 7 of those games are away.  Under Cam / Ron we have never before played our 4th game of the season at home.  So hopefully the bye week, the chance to do some self-scouting, the addition of Eric Reid AND playing at home should translate to a BIG win on Sunday.

 

Here are a few more details of each of the Game 4 results since 2011:

The Panthers game by game details for game 4 since 2011:

2011: L at CHI 29-34

2012: L at ATL 28-30

2013:  L at AZ 6-22 (post-bye)

2014: L at BAL 10-38

2015: W at Tampa 37-23

2016: L at ATL 33-48 ("the Julio game")

2017: W at NE 33-30

 

In the 1st quarter of the season since 2011, Panthers record is 15-16, the only quarter of the regular season for which they have a losing record since 2011.  If we can get the W versus the Giants and start 3-1, it bodes VERY well for the chances of this team, and it would even up the Panthers 1st quarter record under Cam & Ron to .500 football.

LET'S DO IT!!

[jfra78]

That grey game still bothers me

[Inimicus]

We are hell on wheels in week 14

[KB_fan]

21 minutes ago, Inimicus said:

We are hell on wheels in week 14

Yes, pretty amazing! (Note however, it's actually week 15 but game 14 since the bye week throws off the count).

[KB_fan]

Here's a closer look at the points scored / allowed on a quarter by quarter basis:

(includes 2018 season weeks 1-3)

Interesting to see that the offense typically improves in terms of points scored quarter by quarter (with a slight regression in the post-season).  The defense has improved slightly from Q1 to Q2 (by a point per game), regressed in Q3 to then STOMP on teams in Q4 (again with a regression in the post-season).

[Borat]

Not really a large enough sample size, given that opponent quality varies heavily from week to week. An uneven distribution of good teams in Week 4 the past few years would totally explain the skew. 

 

You sig 'explanation' is great, FYI. 

[KB_fan]

8 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I hate to mess with your logic @KB_fan but we’ve never had a week 4 bye before, have we?

Based on your post, it would seem as if week 4, historically our worst was a great week to have off.

We did previously have a week 4 bye.  2013.  We had a week 4 bye and then lost to Arizona in week 5.

That's why the table above is labeled "game 4" and not "week 4" as that makes it easier to account for byes.  

The main purpose of the table initially was to track quarter by quarter.  Only later did I add the game by game analysis as the sample size got higher to reduce the impact of a single good or bad game.

 

But yes, I think a week 4 bye might have been a good thing for the team.  One can't put too much into the game 4 W-L record, but I think a chance for early self-scouting and adjustments for 3 new coordinators should largely be positive.  identify and correct mistakes.  Identify and capitalize on opportunities to increase and focus on what's working well.

[KB_fan]

Just now, Borat said:

Not really a large enough sample size, given that opponent quality varies heavily from week to week. An uneven distribution of good teams in Week 4 the past few years would totally explain the skew. 

Oh sure.  Sample size is small.

We've always played the 4th game away.  Twice we've played Atlanta, once of our toughest foes.

I'm not trying to make a case that this is statistically significant.  Just a fun factoid.

[Khyber53]

27 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

 

In the 1st quarter of the season since 2011, Panthers record is 15-16, the only quarter of the regular season for which they have a losing record since 2011.  If we can get the W versus the Giants and start 3-1, it bodes VERY well for the chances of this team, and it would even up the Panthers 1st quarter record under Cam & Ron to .500 football.

LET'S DO IT!!

Wonder if there is any way we could weight these based on opponent's end of season record? It might give us a measuring stick to see of those week 4 losses were against good teams or if we actually just fall flat at about this time each year.

[KB_fan]

3 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

Wonder if there is any way we could weight these based on opponent's end of season record? It might give us a measuring stick to see of those week 4 losses were against good teams or if we actually just fall flat at about this time each year.

Interesting question.  I have that data handy for 2015-2017.  I'll see if I can compile it for 2011-2014 later tonight.

[!stUp]

1 hour ago, Inimicus said:

We are hell on wheels in week 14

[TheSpecialJuan]

Great work like always. Also, I love you 

[CRA]

BUT....has game 4 ever been week 5? 

So in theory week 4 has always been bad and we just skipped right over that mofo.  #winning 

[Pantherxtreme]

5 hours ago, KB_fan said:

So over the weekend, I added the first 3 2018 game scores to a spreadsheet I've been keeping for a few years with the Panthers' game by game results.  I noticed something interesting.  Game 4 has historically been the Panthers WORST by a large margin since 2011 - both in terms of W-L record (2-5) and points allowed (a whopping 32.1 points per game).

Here's what it looks like:

 

In 5 of the 7 seasons, Panthers allowed 30 or more points in their 4th game, including last year's win versus the Patriots.  

The next worst game by points allowed is Game 10 of the season with 28.3 points allowed, but that is skewed by 2 blowout losses where the team allowed 45+ points per game.

Game 4 has been CONSISTENTLY poor for the Panthers.  But note, all 7 of those games are away.  Under Cam / Ron we have never before played our 4th game of the season at home.  So hopefully the bye week, the chance to do some self-scouting, the addition of Eric Reid AND playing at home should translate to a BIG win on Sunday.

 

Here are a few more details of each of the Game 4 results since 2011:

The Panthers game by game details for game 4 since 2011:

2011: L at CHI 29-34

2012: L at ATL 28-30

2013:  L at AZ 6-22 (post-bye)

2014: L at BAL 10-38

2015: W at Tampa 37-23

2016: L at ATL 33-48 ("the Julio game")

2017: W at NE 33-30

 

In the 1st quarter of the season since 2011, Panthers record is 15-16, the only quarter of the regular season for which they have a losing record since 2011.  If we can get the W versus the Giants and start 3-1, it bodes VERY well for the chances of this team, and it would even up the Panthers 1st quarter record under Cam & Ron to .500 football.

LET'S DO IT!!

Worth noting is that with all the 4th game loses the Panthers had a losing record going into that week. On the opposite end the games that were won the Panthers had a winning record going into that week. The only exception being the 2014 season where we had a winning record but lost that game

Also of note is the Panthers under Ron Rivera have always been a team that started slow and got better as the season progressed so if they can end the 1st quarter of the season 3-1 that bolds well for the potential of the rest of the season.