DETAILED Panthers Post-bye statistics since 2011

[KB_fan]

Lots of chatter today (on Good Morning Football and elsewhere) about how awful Cam is following a bye.  Only 3 TDs vs 8 INTs in 7 games.  Stats that make you go YIKES.  Yes. they're factually true, but pretty misleading since they only count Cam's passing TDs, not his rushing TDs, and his INT numbers have improved greatly since 2015.

Here's a spreadsheet with detailed post-bye data.  Some quick comments follow below:

Sorry if that's hard to read.  Hopefully you can zoom over different sections of interest.  I'd post separate tables, but it's late, I'm tired and I need to call it a night.

Now for some comments:

1. YES, Panthers record from 2011-2014 post-bye was abysmal. 0-4. Perhaps most shocking in that period, the Panthers averaged only 9 points per game while allowing nearly 26 points.

2. Related to those stats in 2011-2014 was horrid red zone conversion: 2/11 in 4 years (<17%)

3, Panthers also were poor on defense in 2011-2014, losing both the turnover AND sack differentials all 4 years.

4. It's not as if the Panthers were playing high caliber teams in those years either. No post-bye opponent in 2011-2014 was above .500 when we played, none made playoffs.

5. The post-bye game vs. Seattle in 2015 was a HUGE turning point. In the past 3 years Panthers are 3-0 post-bye.

6. Redzone % is way up as is scoring and touchdowns. Panthers turnovers (give aways) are way down. Sacks by Panthers are way up.

7. Not only offensive TDs are up, but Panthers have been scoring defensive & ST touchdowns in the past 2 seasons.

8.  SO.... If you see those stats that Cam has only scored 3 [passing] TDs vs 8 INTs in post-bye games. It's true.   But add in rushing TDs and he has 5 TDs, and 6 of 8 INTS were prior to 2015. He has none in the past 2 years.

9. Keys to a @Panthers post-bye win?

• Red zone efficiency,
• TDs... no matter rushing, passing, defense or return TDs. Just get in the end zone!
• Sacks
• Win the turnover differential.

Easy!

 

I'll be offline all day Sat and most of Sunday (up until 5 pm here which is gametime locally).  So won't be able to respond.  Going camping on the beach with some friends....  Should be fun.

[ellis]

I’m impressed with your detail. Thanks for the info. 

[UpstatePanther]

I would love it if someone on the beat staff would bring these numbers up to Ron Rivera in an interview setting and ask him what changed about the team's preparation in 2015. It's such a stark contrast, something had to have changed and it would be a fascinating article for Voth, Rodrigue, Person, or hell even Newton to explore.

[ladypanther]

59 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

up until 5 pm here which is gametime locall

Remind us KB...where are you?

btw....great thread!

[t96]

31 minutes ago, ladypanther said:

Remind us KB...where are you?

btw....great thread!

I thought kB was in Africa? 

[Mr. Scot]

I've seen the bye week stuff laid at Rivera's feet way more often than Newton's. That said, great analysis.

[LinvilleGorge]

I tried to warn y'all about the Panthers after the bye. I don't need any detailed analysis to know we suck after the bye under Rivera. I watch the games. Even when we win, we look bad. We usually just look flat, undisciplined, and unorganized. Just like we look today. I just hope we can hang on and chalk it up as an ugly win and move on.

[LiberalsRWeak93]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I tried to warn y'all about the Panthers after the bye. I don't need any detailed analysis to know we suck after the bye under Rivera. I watch the games. Even when we win, we look bad. We usually just look flat, undisciplined, and unorganized. Just like we look today. I just hope we can hang on and chalk it up as an ugly win and move on.

Why don't you quit pretending to be a panthers fan? You are the same one who was warning people we would start 0-3.

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, LiberalsRWeak93 said:

Why don't you quit pretending to be a panthers fan? You are the same one who was warning people we would start 0-3.

Why don't you stop pretending to be a troll? Go find where I warned that, please.

Oh wait, with that username you're not even pretending. You won't be around long.

[Shocker]

That is awesome stuff, thank you

[morgan55]

 Can we just not have a bye week... ever