A purely statistical analysis of Kyle Allen this season

[run-run-pass-punt]

The thing that I do find impressive about Allen is that he is playing pretty well and making some elite throws while still being "wet behind the ears". Plenty of room to grow into his sense of confidence and decision making.

Also, how many fans would be pleased if their 1st round QB was playing as well as Allen in their first year (first few games)? I think most would be satisfied with the idea that it's a young player learning the ropes at the position. For me, that puts things into perspective.

He could get better or flame out, but to this point, he's been all he's needed to be.

[Mr. Scot]

That's the thing that I keep coming back to with Allen, honestly.

It's one thing to talk about how good he is now. The bigger question is how good he can be.

I don't know the answer to that yet, but it's hard not to be at least a little bit and encouraged when you see one very important thing.

Improvement.

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Have you seen our run defense?

Yes.  I trust our run defense to get things righted more than I trust Kyle Allen to turn into a QB that can push us into the playoffs.

Not many teams have the set up needed to punish on on the ground.

Every single team can effect Kyle Allen.

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

Yes.  I trust our run defense to get things righted more than I trust Kyle Allen to turn into a QB that can push us into the playoffs.

Not many teams have the set up needed to punish on on the ground.

Every single team can effect Kyle Allen.

I just don't think we have the personnel to fix our run defense. We only have two DEs who are 260+ and they were both UDFAs. We traded size/strength for speed on the edges.

[mav1234]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

They had five total called runs in the first half. 

they had 6 total drives, including 1 that ended in an INT after 2 plays and a fumble after 3.  By the time they got to a "long" drive (8 plays), there was under a minute left in the half.  so if we think of only the first 15 plays they ran, 2 ended with a turnover, and 5 were rushing plays.  That is not terrible balance, and given we bottled up those runs, it is not surprising they had to throw.

We stopped the run early... that changed in the 2nd half...  Henry's first 2 runs of the 2nd half had more yards than they had rushing up to that point.  So easy to keep going then.

 

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

55 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I just don't think we have the personnel to fix our run defense. We only have two DEs who are 260+ and they were both UDFAs. We traded size/strength for speed on the edges

Well we just signed another 260+ DE today.

[LinvilleGorge]

30 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

they had 6 total drives, including 1 that ended in an INT after 2 plays and a fumble after 3.  By the time they got to a "long" drive (8 plays), there was under a minute left in the half.  so if we think of only the first 15 plays they ran, 2 ended with a turnover, and 5 were rushing plays.  That is not terrible balance, and given we bottled up those runs, it is not surprising they had to throw.

We stopped the run early... that changed in the 2nd half...  Henry's first 2 runs of the 2nd half had more yards than they had rushing up to that point.  So easy to keep going then.

 

That's terrible balance when Ryan Tannehill is your QB, Derrick Henry is your starting RB (he only had three of those five carries) and you're playing one of the worst statistical run defenses in the NFL.

[mav1234]

41 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

That's terrible balance when Ryan Tannehill is your QB, Derrick Henry is your starting RB (he only had three of those five carries) and you're playing one of the worst statistical run defenses in the NFL.

It was clear we were working hard to slow the run.  We contained Henry pretty well save for one drive (7 rushes for 47 yards).  He was largely ineffective the rest of the game, rushing for only 16 yards on 6 carries (~<3 ypc).  It is hard to feed a RB when he gets shut down on first down and you fall behind.  We clearly made it a point to stop him.

[LinvilleGorge]

17 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

It was clear we were working hard to slow the run.  We contained Henry pretty well save for one drive (7 rushes for 47 yards).  He was largely ineffective the rest of the game, rushing for only 16 yards on 6 carries (~<3 ypc).  It is hard to feed a RB when he gets shut down on first down and you fall behind.  We clearly made it a point to stop him.

You're playing revisionist history. When they committed to running him, they had success. They didn't do that in the 1st half and they had to abandon the run early in the 2nd half because they were playing catch up. He had 63 yards and a TD on only 13 carries. They would've been much more competitive had they actually done the logical thing and ran at our weak run D with their TE sized battering ram of a RB who is damn near as big as most of our DEs.

[onmyown]

19 hours ago, Qu1million said:

Here's a stat...Allen is 1 and done in the playoffs!

Even if Allen is one and done but takes the Panthers to the Playoffs being his first playing season, 23 years old and undrafted meaning he’d have to do well In the NFC this year with the Seahawks, Colts, Packers and Saints twice left to play I mean....

not bad.

[mav1234]

7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You're playing revisionist history. When they committed to running him, they had success. They didn't do that in the 1st half and they had to abandon the run early in the 2nd half because they were playing catch up. He had 63 yards and a TD on only 13 carries. They would've been much more competitive had they actually done the logical thing and ran at our weak run D with their TE sized battering ram of a RB who is damn near as big as most of our DEs.

it isn't revisionist history... if you look at their drives, we shut down the run on 1st down... They called run plays on 4 of their first 6 plays.  Of the remaining 2, 1 was a penalty against us that netted them 20 some yards, the other was a 20 yard completion.  They ran Henry on 3 of the those 4 rushing 1st downs.  One of them netted 3 yards, the other was nullified by a holding penalty, and the other netted a single yard.  The other was a run by their other back on like 1st and 25 lol.

After that point they were down 2 scores, they had a drive with terrible play calls, then they had a minute left.

They did open the 2nd half strong, but after that first drive, when they went to Henry on subsequent drives, he wasn't as productive... 4 carries for 12 yards.  When we pushed the lead to 16 to start the 4th, they abandoned the run, because our adjustments had made us unable to stop Tannehill (or, he just was exposing us :P )

[rico6]

I just hope he balls out on Sunday showing he can lead the charge beating a good team and not ride coattails of CMAC and the Defense. 
 

If Allen does his thing Sunday it bodes well for our playoff hopes.