Decision Tree Analysis and assigning Expected Value as it relates to Cam.

[CanadianCat]

16 hours ago, SBiii said:

Question for the crowd.....what's a 1st round pick worth in monetary terms?

Is there any sort of dollar amount that can be attached?

I'm not aware that teams can buy & sell picks but if they could what would it cost Hurndog to go out and but high-middle 1st round pick?

Would $4 million be a proper number?

This is a moderately interesting question but 4,000,000 is too little. Think back to when the Brown traded for Brock Osweiler. 

The Browns got him a 2nd and a 6th round pick. In returned they 'paid' 18,000,000 for his salary.... or that much for a 2nd round pick.

So the cost of a 1st is much higher. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/browns-brock-osweiler-trade-brilliant-move-2017-3

[Icege]

16 hours ago, SBiii said:

Question for the crowd.....what's a 1st round pick worth in monetary terms?

Is there any sort of dollar amount that can be attached?

I'm not aware that teams can buy & sell picks but if they could what would it cost Hurndog to go out and but high-middle 1st round pick?

Would $4 million be a proper number?

Depends.

Are you looking for short-term or long-term value?

Short term, I'd propose using whatever the median salary would be on their rookie contract. Long term, I'd propose using the total value of the contract.

[bababoey]

1 hour ago, uncfan888 said:

I wish the mods would elucidate you off the board

I would prolificate pie all over you for that if I could 

I think I typed that right. 

[SBiii]

44 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

Now I just hate SBiii like everyone else.. 

"hate"

Strong word.

I gave the values I arrived at.  If I posted the full details(and I may at some point) all the serial-dislikers (haters is a word I don't like) would just tell me all the reasons I am wrong....yet they'd never provide their own analysis/conclusions.

Now if someone wants to post their own values for each scenario and then have a dialogue about how we got to our conclusions, I'm all for that.

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, SBiii said:

"hate"

Strong word.

I gave the values I arrived at.  If I posted the full details(and I may at some point) all the serial-dislikers (haters is a word I don't like) would just tell me all the reasons I am wrong....yet they'd never provide their own analysis/conclusions.

No if someone wants to post their own values for each scenario and then have a dialogue about how we got to our conclusions, I'm all for that.

Oh boy, another SBiii classic......

"Oh you all will just poo poo my brilliance, so you aren't worthy! Why don't you all show me how you did it and I will critique it as an imperfect version of my own. Perhaps if you amuse and placate me enough I will show you snippets of what my genius has generated."

Either post what you want or get lost. 

[CanadianCat]

21 minutes ago, SBiii said:

"hate"

Strong word.

Agreed. A little tongue and cheek there though. 

[trueblade]

4 hours ago, SBiii said:

In the Retain Cam Scenario I assumed .333 > .333 > .333 odds as it relates to him being a bust, serviceable backup, or returning to superstar status in the 5-years starting w/ the 2021 season.

Assigning each outcome in the Retain Cam Scenario an equal chance would be the assumption I'd feel the least confident about, however; without better data, especially on Newton's medical, I can't really fault it.

[SBiii]

4 hours ago, CanadianCat said:

This is a moderately interesting question but 4,000,000 is too little. Think back to when the Brown traded for Brock Osweiler. 

The Browns got him a 2nd and a 6th round pick. In returned they 'paid' 18,000,000 for his salary.... or that much for a 2nd round pick.

So the cost of a 1st is much higher. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/browns-brock-osweiler-trade-brilliant-move-2017-3

Good feedback, thanks.

Question/observation....a 1st rounder implies taking a college player in the draft, a player with no NFL experience -- how would you factor this into your valuation?

Cheers mate.

[jfra78]

[sml1950]

Tepper has a small cadre of analysts crunching numbers for his investment decisions but after all the threshing is done his action rarely comes down to pushing a button for a go/no go plan.  He goes to his brass balls,  massages them and blends in his gut, life experiences and reputation .  IMO he’ll do the same with any Panther decision.  Analytics may always be the foundation, but rarely be the only tool.

[SBiii]

19 minutes ago, sml1950 said:

Tepper has a small cadre of analysts crunching numbers for his investment decisions but after all the threshing is done his action rarely comes down to pushing a button for a go/no go plan.  He goes to his brass balls,  massages them and blends in his gut, life experiences and reputation .  IMO he’ll do the same with any Panther decision.  Analytics may always be the foundation, but rarely be the only tool.

Take a bow, Pass Go, and collect $200.

You my friend, have nailed it to the wall.

Good onya mate.