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Corona Virus

Ja Rhule

By Ja Rhule,
in Huddle Lounge

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stirs Grand Master

stirs

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I absolutely believe it. Accessibility to testing has been awful. We're really only testing the most vulnerable and the most ill. We think that 80% of cases will be asymptomatic or mild. That's based on current testing levels. That number is likely much higher. Here in Colorado, they're assuming that the actual infection rate is 5-10x higher than confirmed testing results. Even if that's the case, we're still a loooooooong way away from herd immunity.

Crap.....pun intended

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted

Now this is interesting.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

The survey in Germany was carried out by virologist Hendrik Streeck and several others at the University Hospital in Bonn, who say they approached about 1,000 residents of Gangelt to give blood, have their throats swabbed, and fill out a survey. They found that 2% of residents were actively infected by the coronavirus and a total of 14% had antibodies, indicating a prior infection. 

From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

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NanuqoftheNorth Grand Master

NanuqoftheNorth

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Now this is interesting.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

The survey in Germany was carried out by virologist Hendrik Streeck and several others at the University Hospital in Bonn, who say they approached about 1,000 residents of Gangelt to give blood, have their throats swabbed, and fill out a survey. They found that 2% of residents were actively infected by the coronavirus and a total of 14% had antibodies, indicating a prior infection. 

From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

This caught my eye in your posted article:

Quote

 

“To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.”

Here's why the true infection rate in a region matters: the bigger it is, the less pain still lies ahead. Eventually, when enough people are immune—maybe half to three-quarters of us—the virus won’t be able to spread further, a concept called herd immunity.

But the German town isn’t close to that threshold yet, and to Christakis the preliminary figure is “unfortunate” because it means the virus still has more damage to do.

 

 

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stirs Grand Master

stirs

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Posted

I guess we are all posting the same findings, just reported from different sources.

While 15% is good and will definitely slow the spread, it is a bit away from the magic 60%.  I think we will be very very surprised at the rate here in the US once we get the antibodies tests.  I wish we could get those results very quickly as it would weigh heavily on the response at the end of April for opening or keeping closed areas of the US

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stirs Grand Master

stirs

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Posted

In my opinion, if Trump wins in November, Xi will be out in 2021.

With the US bent for gains against China, and Europe now being a willing partner against China, Xi's decisions will be called into question.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-03/chinas-coming-upheaval

Of course we have been talking already about the economic price that China will pay

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